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May 1, 2008
Posted: 728 GMT
LONDON, England – The Fed’s decision to cut rates by another quarter point to two percent was widely expected. It was also widely anticipated that the Fed would signal it is taking a breather from cutting rates. In its statement it dropped the often repeated phrase that “downside risks to the economy remain.”
That had some economists swifting suggesting the Fed is in a complete state of denial. Rob Carnell of ING quickly sent out an email with the subject head: “Who are you kidding Mr. Bernanke?” “Our economics team view the statement as representing a Fed in denial over the scale of the forthcoming downturn and one which be forced to cut rates later this year, when the labour market starts to weigh on consumption,” he predicted. Ian Sheperdson, Chief U.S. Economist at High Frequency Economics, also took issue with the Fed dropping the phrase about downside risks to the economy remaining. In a sharp rebuke to the Fed, Shepherdson wrote: “We think this is completely wrong: Downside risks to growth do remain, and they are substantial.” To underscore this point he not only italicized it, but put it in bolder and darker ink then the rest of his analysis. His rebuke didn’t end there. “Moreover, we wonder quite what the Fed sees in the data over the past 27 days that we don’t. Mr. Bernanke himself said in Congressional testimony on April 2 that the risks remain to the downside. We have no argument with Keynes’ dictum that when the facts change, you should change your mind. “But we’re a bit baffled by the Fed’s version, changing its collective mind in the absence of any change in the facts. Indeed we’d go further: The key incoming data since March 18 have deteriorated, with consumer confidence dropping further, the decline in home prices accelerating, and payrolls falling.” Shepherdson thinks that by August the Fed will be forced to ease again. Several other economists also think the Fed have to cut rates further, with the most bearish down to 1 percent by year end, while others think 1.50 percent will be the floor. There is a camp who think the Fed is done easing with this latest cut to 2 percent. In its statement the Fed did acknowledge that economic activity remains weak, but that’s a lot different than suggesting that further deterioration is behind us. In my view, and in the view of several economists, plenty of risks remain, and they are all on the downside. Posted by: CNN International Financial Editor, Todd Benjamin
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