the drastic rising in oil price may indicate that the global reserves of fossil fuels are depleting and that the Olduvai theory is not wrond?

btw, i like your writings

Dear Todd, I appreciate the way you speak frankly about the various financial issues facing the world. During Adrian’s broadcast this morning, you briefly touched on the amount of tax we all pay in the price of petrol at the pump. Maybe you can dedicate a bit more time to exposing what must be massive tax winfalls for governments during this period. Why don’t we hold goverments accountable and ask them why they aren’t lowering their tax rates at the pumps to simply maintain their same annual revenue? Sincerely, David

The reason for the high oil prices is due to the massive waste of the oil by the Americans with their over heated/cooled homes, their large gas guzzling cars, and their insistence on driving around the block to the store when they can walk.

Yes . The rise of crude oil is sure and imminent . we are constantly warned by oil experts. Fossil oils new discovery is over. let us focus on Jatropha oil which is non-edible and does not give fight to food crops.
S.a.Alagarsamy
http://www.mgrbiodiesel.com

Environmental polution goes up with oil consumption. Apparently the Kyoto Protocol is failing. Poor sales of inefficient cars, however, suggest that bad news for our wallet, may be good news for the environment (and thus, ultimately, for ourselves).

I have some general comments on the current economic situation and looking forward.

There is a lot of hand wringing going on right now about recession, the price of oil, food shortages but when you step back from it, they are not necessarily bad things. The message I get is that the self indulgence party of endless growth and consumption is over for Westerners. Oddly, this is coming at just the time when the larger Asian economies have adopted the Western model of consumption as a lifestyle, which in part simply says that the world can’t take it any more and the late comers like India and China arrived at the party just as it was breaking up. But if people consume less than they have become used to, what will happen to the average Wetsern middle class person? Few Westerners can complain that they don’t know where their next meal is coming from and if they can’t buy ten pairs of shoes this year, they can still get around. Katrina and New Orleans showed me that even the poor in rich countries, never mind the developing ones, were never invited to this party of excess consumption and the rich always throw their invitations away-too busy making or taking money. And, look at the upside-less consumption means less energy use, fewer resources used, less destruction of the environment. Everything is telling us to take a break and think about what we are doing to ourselves and others. I mean, how is it that diabetes is reaching epidemic proportions in the West while there are food riots in poor countries?

Now, I am with you on the long term diet the West needs to go on (’m sorry but I cannot call it ‘pain’ and I can see it going easily to 2010 as Paul Krugman indicated lately on CNN. What no one seems to have factored in yet is the demographics of the baby boom generation. Within a few years, they are going to start retiring in big numbers (around 2010). They will provide natural shrinkage in the Western labour markets. They will consume far fewer goods and likely more services like health. Many are banking on selling their properties, downsizing and using the excess for retirement-if there is any excess, and if they can sell their properties. People in Britain are prime examples of this and I know many who have already hollowed out their home’s value to have a second less expensive property abroad where they will go to leave with their bankroll from their inflated home in Britain. Hmmm, but Spain has already faltered in its property values.

Corporations, since they have no morality beyond shareholder value and profit continue to implore governments to do something, to order in more beer and wine for the guests. They want the same excessive growth to continue and eagerly eye the new Asian giants. They don’t care what is possible-I mean does anyone seriously belive the Chinese are going to live like Americans one day and the Indians, too?

All of it seems to say, that after the great party of excess, we are going to come to our senses and stay away from the mall for a while. Less consumption means less energy use, less destruction of the environment, all good things that the man in the street believes in but can’t see for the life of him. We are going to have to start realizing that corporate growth is not the same as development and improvement in the quality of life. All of this is good for us.

I’m a middle class person, 63 and live in Bangkok. Like all my friends here I don’t own a house. I rent a flat that has all the comforts I need yet no more space than I need. I have no car, don’t dress for fashion, eat on the street, and my life is absolutely WONDERFUL! compared to what it ever was in London or Canada when I was caught up in the consumer culture. So I say, let the oil prices and the recession do their work-we’ll all be better off for it in the long run.

On the price of oil and gas in the US: I was surprised that neither of the Democratic candidates suggested that a gas tax holiday just be given to the truckers, and commercial transportation operators. Wouldn’t that help even a little to contain inflation pressures?

I do agree with you that we should look at our own consumption pattern etc and not blame government, Oil companies for the high oil prices. Since demand is more than supply , price will surely go up.
The world must be prepared for US$ 200 oil or even higher. Renewable energy, conservation, alternative technologies all need to be fast tracked. Hopefully this will lead to less Green House Gases and thus reduce Global Warming.
Sincerely Rudy ( Jakarta)

Well crude prices are bound to increase in future. There’s no way we can even give a thought of getting $50 a barrel in 2016 instead predict $250 a barrel. And as far as cars are concerned they would become lot expensive. Drive electric powered cars or bikes they rock….

Now let me see if I get this oil thing right … I own a petrol manufacturer company … the more the oil costs … the more I have to charge to make my 10% … then I invest the billions I make each month into oil futures … driving the prices up for a barrel of crude … so I can charge more …. Man … what a country!!!

High oil price is somehow caused by selfish countries which have vast reserves and yet choose to import most of their needs. Countries like USA and China opt to import oil for their consumptions rather than tapping their huge domestic oil reserves.

It is high time for oil exporting countries to stand up and cater only countries which have genuine needs.

Maybe with $200 oil we’ll see some interesting inventions.

http://www.offgrid-living.com

Maybe this is the opportunity to people reassess their lives and what they want to do with it.

To live to consume is a cheap way to wast your time in this planet. Like food, you should consume to live not live to consume.

I think there is enough material goods for everybody, at reasonable prices, we just have to be less greedy.

And when the price hits $200, there will be a collective cheer from speculators. These are the same people who are driving up food prices while the poor slobs on fixed incomes are trying to figure out how to survive. Forget this nit picking on whether or not we are in a recession. It’s time to seriously consider the real possibility of depression.

“Oil at $200 a barrel” Well this is not a question that needs to be asked and we really do not need so called “experts” who screwed up big time in the subprime to tell the world that $200 a barrel is possible. Being an Indian it was not at all shocking or ‘news” to me bcoz one look out on roads or in the stock markets in india or china will tell that no matter what cost a barrel reaches they are ready to buy to feed the world with more cheaper goods..

todd, great show and sobering perspective on the upward spiralling price of crude, but wholly realistic. Is this good or bad news?
Seems the global economy ( thanks to globallization) underpinned on petroleum, is in a vicious circle of rising prices whose domino effect is been felt in every village, (including mine, Yola ,Nigeria) - higher prices for food, shelter, school etc. More petrodollars surpassing the absorbtive capacity of OPEC members, More poverty , misery and instability.
can the world economy , particularly Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia realitically live on $200+ oil? somehow this ‘irrational exuberance’ has to burst.

OIL IS NOT GOING TO GET CHEAP AGAIN, AND OIL SUPPLIES ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS THEY WILL GET
This rise is not due primarily to speculation or political factors or even drilling restrictions, but new fields are getting more and more difficult to find, are smaller and cost more to develop.

The statements of massive reserves that can be produced in most oil producing countries is nonsense - the state run bodies in places like Saudi Arabia had every incentive to overstate reserves, as quotas were based on them.
Although they have pumped billions of barrels, remaining reserves remain exactly the same as they were according to their (unaudited) figures!
What a coincidence!
Give or take, production is about as high as it will get:
http://www.energybulletin.net/17009.html
Demand is going up all the time, with major new consumers like China and India wanting ever more oil.
Demand always balances supply.
Result? Ever rising prices.
PRICE RISES WILL BE GEOMETRIC
When supply is static, the only way to balance things out is by demand destruction.
The poorest people in the world have already been forced out.
Driving out the next tier up will be tougher - it is people like those in America who need to drive a long way to work, and are relatively poorer than some others.
But supply and demand will balance, so if $200/barrel oil does not do it, then it will go to $400/barrel:
http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/3947#more

It gets worse, as in fact as in the North sea or Mexico when supplies have peaked, they drop rapidly - Russia is on the verge of this, as they have recently half-admitted.
Oil exporters also tend to keep it cheap in their own land, leading to rocketing demand - Saudi Arabian demand is going through the roof.

So if $800/barrel oil is what it takes to knock out the next level of demand, that is what will happen, to put the middle classes on the bus.

Looking for a scapegoat? then just take a long hard look in the mirror. You’ll see the same people who wasted the opportunity in the oil shocks of the 70s, kicked out Carter because he had the nerve to tell people they needed to curb their consumption and maybe wear a sweater and drive efficient cars. The same people who vote for anyone that promises them an easy life without trying to think what it really means. The very last thing we need is a gas holiday, it would be far better to increase the tax and use this for my ideas below or food stamps for the poor.

$200 a barrel before the end of the year? Quite possibly and we know that it will reach $200 (then $400 then $800) at some point in the near future. This is assuming no “out of the ordinary” events such as the US invading Iran or…. Oil is still far too cheap, coffee costs £2 per half litre at starbucks etc. The energy in one barrel of oil is the same as twelve people working for one year, so how much is that worth?

The most important point is that although it is difficult to believe, oil is finite and that we have either recently reached or will very soon reach the point of maximum production; aka Peak Oil (PO). About 80 million barrels a day are pumped and if they stand upright they would more than circle the earth EVERY day. How long do you think we can go on puling out that much? It must be obvious that it can’t go on for long.

It is a fallacy to think there are huge untapped fields that will keep output rising or even steady, e.g. tar sands, the clue is in the name sandy and thick goop that requires huge amounts of gas and water to produce; biofuels, seemed a good idea but look what’s happened to the price of food; hydrogen, needs more energy to liberate it than is released by burning it. Since it is widely thought that Peak Gas will follow PO between 10 and 15 years later we cannot simply switch from oil to natural gas. No room here to explain all this but easy to look up for those who want. Whether PO has already happened or will happen in a few years is not hugely important. What is important is that we need to reduce our “addiction” as quickly as possible using all the alternatives.

Oil has become ubiquitous because of its great properties, it is energy dense, easy to transport at normal temperatures and has been available in large quantities. Unfortunately there is nothing else that has similar properties. On reaching the point where supply cannot meet demand the price will continually increase and thus price out demand from the poorest which we are already seeing.

Here’s a killer, as the income of oil producing countries increases they will strive to have the same “stuff” as developed countries, e.g. large air conditioned cars and their oil consumption will increase thus leading to less oil being available for exports. This is know as the Export Land Model (ELM) and will reduce the amount of oil on the world market thus ratcheting up prices further. I would not be surprised to see $400/barrel by the end of 2009.

So what should we do? here are a few suggestions;

Realise that cars and driving miles to work will soon be history.
Realise that cheap flights will soon be history, look at the airlines going broke all over the world already.
Contact your favourite politicians and demand that action is taken to reduce our dependence on oil and gas no matter how difficult.

We need:
A big improvement in public transport. France is introducing light rail into all towns.
A return of electric trams or trolleybuses. Electrify all rail – do not order new diesel engines.
An immediate ban on sales of new gas-guzzlers so that even the rich can’t avoid this.
Impose a 55mph/90kmh speed limit.
Simplify planning permission for renewable generators and encourage renewable generators with a feed-in tariff like Germany.
For all new building ensure they are fully self sufficient for heating, e.g. insulated to German “PassivHaus” standards.
Apply a tax on electrical devices over their working life that is equal to the cost of offsetting the electricity/CO2 down to the level of the best performing devices. This will encourage people to buy A class devices since now people often tend to just look at the initial price and others who have no interest in the running costs just the up-front costs e.g. landlords, builders.
Make all consumer goods have a 20 year life span and built to be easily repaired not thrown away.

I have lots more ideas but we ALL need to take action and responsibility.
Think if the future of all human civilisation depended on me, what would I do, how would I be?

Surely informed journalists like the ones at cnn must have heard of a little something called the Bilderberg group. Why is there surprise at the $200 a barrel oil prediction? Please go check out:
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/september2007/170907_middle_class.htm

This whole thing is pre planned and manipulated.

During the last month cnn reported on two australians that developed a generator the doesn’t use any fuel. Why are we not hearing more about that? Because the global elite needs the $200 a barrel oil scam to destroy the middel class, so that its easier to promote global government as our “saviour”.

Before you label me crazy please go do your research (especially on what public officials attend this private Bilderberg meeting) and check out the above link.

Two words, Peak Oil

Hello,

I’ve been researching energy since 2004 when it seemed to me that fuel prices were becoming oddly volatile.

What I have discovered since then has been quite shocking and really changed my perspective. We truely live in a finite world.

I beg everyone who is reading this to do the research yourself. Take a saturday afternoon, read SAICs Hirsch report, read IEAs energy forecast from last year, read what the US GAO has to say about the peaking of world oil.

All the information is out there but you are going to have to go get it yourself.

It takes a good amount of courage to read some of the projections as most of them are not so rosy; so be courageous but please don’t forgo checking the facts for yourself.

If you are fairly technical, start spending some time at http://www.theoildrum.com. There is alot of good information there.

Oil is a finite resource. Despite large reserves, more important is how fast you can get it pumped out of the ground. Presently we burn 1000 barrels, or 159,000 liters. Per second, that is. Totalling approximately 85 million barrels of oil each day, or 30 billion barrels of oil a year. People should see the recent Brasilian find of possibly 33 billion barrels in this perspective.

Sometime, something, somewhere has got to give. That thing is called Peak Oil. This occured in the US around 1970. Worldwide Peak Oil is probably around now.

Todd, you have become aware of the some of complexities of the oil supply and demand cycle (e.g., spare capacity, exporting nation rising consumption, etc); the next step is to understand how low spare capacity might become negative as global oil production reaches a peak and begins to decline. To better understand Peak Oil, read “Twilight in the Desert” by Matthew Simmons, CEO of the world’s largest energy investment bank, and “The Peaking of World Oil Production”, a report commissioned by the DoE ( http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf ). Also consider reading The Oil Drum daily ( http://www.theoildrum.co ).

Oil production has been essentially flat since 2005, and that has resulted in the price of oil doubling in the last year. Since we are at or near the ultimate peak of world oil production, the amount available will soon begin an irreversible decline. When it does, the price spike will make the current rate of increase look quite mild. These are the good old days.

The rate of oil production, approximately 85 million barrels a day (bbl/d) in total liquids and 74 million bbl/d in crude and condensate, has remained approximately flat since about 2005. Increasing oil demand globally, perhaps largely driven by the rapid growth of the economies of China and India in a world with already extant oil-intensive economies such as exist in North America and Europe (for example), has put intense pressure on an apparently limited supply of crude. Prices have risen dramatically. Indeed, price per barrel now appears to be doubling every 12-18 months.

Given the reality that new discoveries are trailing production by at least three barrels per every one produced, and the advanced “age” of many producing oil fields, especially the major finds such as Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, world oil production is likely to begin to decline. Exports from oil-producing countries will probably decline even faster than actual production decline, as internal oil consumption increases due to the expenditure of all the wealth obtained by the exporting country in a market of high oil prices. As a result, oil prices are set to climb even faster in the future. Imagine a world where oil prices double perhaps every 3 to 6 months.

Among a huge list of geopolitical implications that could be (and are being) triggered by a rapid escalation in oil prices, one thing seems clear: Such a fast climb in the price of oil, the lifeblood of the world’s economies, probably will result in the end of mass consumerism, and all the cold, hard realities that go along with such a dramatic economic rearrangement.

I have littl “techncial” to add except support for that already posted by many here especially those who are members at http://www.theoildrum.com

Within the last month I emailed Anderson Cooper that there was the making of a multi-part investigative report on this subject along the lines of “Planet in Perl”.

We CANNOT expect the Federal Goverment to solve this problem. We cannot rely on any of the remaining three POTUS candidates to address this correctly post election. Progams from Washington have and will generally exacerbate the pain for the middle and lower income citizens.

Preparation MUST come from the populace individually in in smaller groups, but will not until the populace is made aware of what is really going on, the implications, etc. Many if not most politicians will not “go here”.

CNN can help greatly informign with the truth.

Regards,

Pete

yep. Peak oil. read some of the sites mentioned above and learn the real facts. “”It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” — Upton Sinclair

What are the ties of rising oil prices to the falling dollar if there are any? And frankly, is it as straightforward as saying an increase in supply from Opec producing countries would instantly decrease oil prices? Or its not that straightforward? Gbenga Ajayi.

This is getting really stupid let me tell you. Now that the dollar is weak and gas prices are going through the roof even people who are working at gas stations are feeling the pressure. I am a college student and on my way home today I passed a Conco gas staion who had on there sign “Hey, it’s not our fault.” Hello, you work for the gas companies so in a way it is your fault! I personally don’t trust our current government to get us out of this fix and I am not holding my breath in that whoever becomes our next president will fix this problem. Thanks for the update!

One of the things I enjoy about reading theoildrum.com is the random-quote generator and my favorite is:

“Considering the many productive uses of petroleum, burning it for fuel is like burning a Picasso for heat.”
—Big Oil Executive

We have all be talking about energy-energy-energy, but what about, for instance, pharmaceuticals, or the tire industry or a multitude of other necessities that we take for granted? Name something that you can’t live without and then consider its availability 5 or 10 years from now.

I spent a few days at Offshore Technology Conference (OTC 2008), and came away depressed; not at all with the optimism which was evident in almost every square foot of the exhibit, but considering the pessimism for the future that is a real danger if we don’t come to grips about allocation of fossil fuels to reduce the pain of life that will soon confront all of us.

Todd,
nice to read you! I have no ideas or solutions on oil problems, and very much worried about the differences from the different economies like the american one, and the others, like the fourth world ones.
Some do consume, and some do not, due to poverty. And in the remote case of making the fourth world emprove we would have the need of sharing resources with theme.
Now we say: divide richness it will become poverty.
What can we do, though?
I’m desperate waiting for miracles. For new discoveries.
In 1800, oil. In 1900 atom. In 2000 let’s try to convert air in energy.
Maria Giovanna
ps I’m sure you missed me. So did I.

i am a owner of a gas station in and the price of fuel is just killing we only make $3 for a barrel here but i relly like todd idea

We are in a pickle. Please when you vote this year. Think of the future generations. Don’t vote for selfish fears or ignorance, and remember God does not care about religion,or what party you family supports. God is all KNOWING,he can see into the real you,and he knows your true motivations.

In the bad old days we used to call banana based economies or banana production dependent countries “Banana Republics” , have we not become an “Oil Republic” with our economy dependent upon oil the benevolent nature of our supplier countries? Maybe, we should start taking our own future in our own hands, and determine our own future and break the cycle of oil dependency. Necessity is the mother of invention. Why put yourself in a position a position to have to pay $200.00 a barrel?. Make oil a secondary energy source.
This is on the level of a national security initiative, so why isn’t it?

Please! can’t you explain the speculation in the comodity market better than you did this morning? Tell the people about zero sum gain, how the spectulator/investor controls oil with pennies on the dollar,simular to the margin system in stocks. How this system got us in trouble in the 20’s and 30’s and the govt. had to raise the margin requirements. Thank god that all comodities are not in the speculation market. i.e. rubber etc.. Suggestion; remove oil from the market and or raise the margin in the comodity markets or both!!
Christian Blake, a native Vermonter and a Anglo European American

Forecasting for the crude oil may reach $200 in six months-to-two years. This report is responsible for the rapid rise in crude oil prices as many people set up their mind in advance for $200 = a barrel. Such kind of forecast may danger for the world economy.

Please don’t misuse statistics.

Goldman Sachs is responsible for current oil crisis along with high demand of oil from India and China.

Don’t forget this famous saying attributed to Benjamin Disraeli is, “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics”.

There has been a lot venom spitting in this forum and most of it well-earned. Ultimately there is no silver bullet but a few steps that need to be taken. First, Americans are going to have to get used to the idea of using mass transit and plugging in their vehicles. Second our government is going to have to address this issue the way it addressed the space and provide funding for clean efficient ,electric-powered mass transit systems, high oil yielding algae based biofuel. Algae yields several thousand gallons per acre per year, in fact, CNN recently featured an article on the topic. Within this mobilization we also need to look into the production of diesel-electric hybrids and more direct injection vehicles. A diesel volkswagen built 25 years ago still gets better mpgs than todays prius. We also need to to promote geo-thermal heating systems and solar. The market development for solar power is huge and could create thousands of jobs in manufacturing and construction. We also need to develop alternatives to aspalt shingles and plastics, remeber plastics are made from petroleum.

Americans thought invading and occupying oil rich nations would solve their fuel thirst. Being the old duffer he is, McCain accidently admitted sending troops into the middle east to secure oil.

America & co have murdered and wounded hundreds of thousands, destroyed homes and infrastructure for precious oil. So when the price goes up at my pump I ask who is stealing our stolen oil ??

It is hard to describe how frustrating the increase in gas prices has become. A few years ago I was driving a Dodge Ram V8 4.3L paying $80-$130 a week on gas. This was back when I thought gas at $2.50 was painful. Now I am finding that even though I’ve upgraded to a more fuel efficient vehicle (Honda Accord), I am yet again paying $75-120$ a week on gas. If I could shorten my driving distances I would, TRUST ME. The thing is, I am working full time and going to school full time. Neither my job nor school is remotely close to the other. It is not the long commute or the rise in the gas prices that is the frustrating part though. Frustration begins when China is drilling for oil in the Gulf of Mexico and the United States is asking them for help. Frustration begins when Alaska has one of the largest oil fields in the world and the Oil Companies prefer to ship oil from half-way around the globe. How can all the oil companies report record earnings each quarter, time and time again since the Bush administration has been in office? I understand that the U.S. Dollar is losing value because of the correction in the housing market, but when a Super Power can no longer support itself and has to request help from China to give us the oil they are pumping out of our back yard, something seriously awry going on. At this rate, even with a fix for the mortgage crisis, struggling home owners will still not be able to keep up with the increasing costs of food and fuel. The answers the Oil Companies came up with to coerce Congress to move the spotlight someplace else must have been pretty intense. The entire market rejoiced the day Congress announced they were questioning the Oil Companies large profits. It almost seemed like someone else out there was not afraid to ask a real questions anymore. Throw enough salt on spoiled meat and you can drown out the taste.

I do not really need answers; actions speak louder than words.

China’s the second largest consumer of oil, and there are more countries consuming too much fossil fuels.
At least the Americans acknowledge their oil addiction and try to find solutions to the problem.
They deserve more credit and we should focus more on a the global demands and the collective change in this.

Rob Vandenberg

The Netherlands (yes I’m Dutch)

With increasing Oil prices, it’s a good time to buy a Push Bike. The Hollywood rich and famous could, if they wanted to, get on their bikes as a statement of fashion. In addition, Hollywoods willingness to promote the bicycle as extra daily excersize and finer tuned body(s) would quell suspicions they are egotistical spoilt brats. There would also be less time for them to make untimely and unnecessary political statements. Obviously, the distance from home to work would determine if personal motorized transportation would be used or not however, those who live within bikeriding distance to work and are willing to climb out of bed earlier could provide that initial momentum, whilst government concentrate on Nuclear and / or Clean Coal Power Stations. Hollywood could initiate this momentum that would have it’s effect world wide. It is not very often you see an overweight Chinese person and they have been using bicycles for years. There is only one way to make Oil rich nations see sense. Hit them where it hurts. in the pocket.

Todd is right. Don’t blame the speculators for oil prices except to the extent that they probably drive cars and consume energy; we are all to blame. We had what should have been all the warning we needed with the oil shock of the ’70’s. Instead we shortsightedly chose to ignore it in order to squeeze a few more years of obsolete product out of the drying sponge, further fouling the air we breathe and representing a continual cause or risk of conflict . IT’S SIMPLY NOT WORTH IT! Instead, we must do now what we failed to do then, viz. view escalating oil prices for what they are: The inevitable consequence of supply and demand of a rapidly diminishing finite resource. But, I suggest that, sensibly managed, this short term crisis need not spell long term doom. Instead we should recognize it as Nature forcing a transition to new sustainable and environmentally friendly energy resources. Yes, there will likely be some painful economic consequences which we might have avoided had we acted when opportunity first knocked, but the price of not acting now will be even worse for the global population and the planet than it already has been.

Americans need to learn a thing or two about building efficient cars… I have a fairly normal car by UK standards (think VW golf sized), small 1.4L diesel engine that gives me 60mpg, but can still push a sub 10 second 0-60 and 125mph top speed.. And no need for fancy hybrid tech that just causes the car to add an extra 500 pounds in weight thus eliminating any efficiency savings…

Cars with incredible efficiency are possible, just the car manufacturers need a public that are demanding better mpg…

other sources of energy are available. Jatropha is one of them. the world will see a shift to alternative fuels. The world will adjust.

Economics will always win out over politics. Politics is the art of make-believe whereas economics is harsh reality. So a finite source will eventually dry out and become available only to the highest bidders. Those who have this source would do well not to sell it for any price. That is what I would do if I were a supplier. I would supply just me mostly and that`s about it. Of course that risks that I get invaded. If I am sufficiently disgusting like the leaders of most gulf medieval states it makes it easier for America to just do that under the pretext of democracy or decency or right or whatever the heck you want to call it.

But look at the brighter side. So many new technologies have been sidelined just because they are too expensive to operate when compared to cheap oil. Cheap oil? You just wait for it buddy to hit a thousand a barrel ($1000/pbl) and you will know how cheap oil is then.

This will ensue into the new energy order of solar, wind and wave-motion power. When you have that you don`t need farmland to produce crops for cars to guzzle.

Politically this means that all states who are foremost oil producers will eventually end up disempowered because their main produce will not net them the huge finances which they do under present economic regimes. Of course they too will have to adapt to the alternative methods but they would have to adapt much more than the western world does. The western world is not based on just oil production. They will never have that energy clout again. Energy production will be democratised. As it is energy production is subsidising a world on a medieval monopolistic model. The new way would mean that you and I can decide what to do about it.

Politics will gain from this but not before the old stratum of political wheeling and dealing will be done away with too.

Crude oil may cross $160 a barrel at the time of Beijing Olympic. That is the time of high demand for this year. Crude oil price already crossed $134 a barrel this week. At the current trend if we add 40% than it may cross $187.6 a barrel in January 2009.

Thank god there is no war at present. I am afraid if war or something starts in the world than crude oil may cross $300 a barrel.

Even for someone like myself who works for an oil company, it really hurts for me to see oil price shoot up so quickly. For those who demand that OPEC increase production or that national governments cut down on fuel tax, you guys are missing the point! Deep inside I am glad that people (especially the americans) are feeling the pain in their wallets. We will never have cheap oil again, so face up to it and get green! While I help the company get more oil out of the ground, I walk to work (at the age of 28, I still haven’t my first car), use energy-saving light bulbs, refuse paper bank statements and recycle magazines/paper. As an industry, we will continue to make record profits every quarter and I will still be the least affected by the all this hooha.

Loose the v6’s and v8’s and 3+ litre cars in America and things will improve. It may be hard for Americans to believe this but there one of the biggest cause of the fuel price hikes.

Price of oil and gas i Poland:
oil 8,31$ per gallon / 4,75PLN per litr
gas 7,98$ per gallon / 4,56PLN per litr

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Dear Sir,
It is possible that oil price will hit US$200 per barrel.Most users
of energy is not fully aware that theory of science defines combustion
is inefficient anywhere except in a laboratory controlled environment.
There are 2 immediate ways to combat oil consumption crisis now,
one is to extend more km for each litre used, and the other is to expand and develop alternative source of renewable energy.
In the meantime leave the politicians to sort the hike in prices out,
as government can demolish taxes on fuel or demolish VAT to cushion the blow.The best bet is to be energy efficient and enhancing the combustion efficiency of fuel.Energy efficiency by itself is actually
oil reserves not being used in the most beneficial ways to all economy.http://www.infernofuel.com

Dear Sir,
As oil hit higher price, it will discourage the use of fossil fuel.
It will be a plus for combating climate change and global warming.
As it is the weather is getting hotter this summer, and the
prohibitive market price of oil will lower the demand on theuses of airconditioning in USA and Europe.
Higher oil price is likely to help Sir Nicholas Stern report on
lowering carbon emission by 80% to 90% to avoid
catastrophic disasters.
Regards,
Ron Tan
http://www.infernofuel.com