Edition: U.S. | Arabic | Set Pref
October 8, 2008
Posted: 1725 GMT

LONDON, England – The economies of the Middle East are growing nicely, regionally about 7 percent this year. Oil revenues, with prices at around $85 a barrel, are still strong by historical standards.

So why are the major markets of the region drowning in a sea of red?

The simple answer is that these economies cannot stand alone in isolation with all the chaos around them. Markets in Saudi Arabia, Dubai and Cairo are now down more than 50 percent from their peaks in 2008. These heady markets have surged anywhere between 200 and 300 percent during the last five years.

They surged in part because investors were enthusiastic about the future. The other volatile part of this equation is that a great deal of hot hedge-fund money came into the region in search of growth. But it left faster than many anticipated.

There was a double-whammy, if you will. Many of the Western funds put money in thinking that the Gulf economies would soon abandon their pegs to the dollar after falling some 30 percent during the past few years. When leaders in the Gulf decided not to scrap that dollar peg, foreign investors looked for the exit.

This major market correction, if we want to limit the description to that, is a big test for the central bankers of the Middle East. They have been working to expand their tool kit to control money supplies, battle record inflation and keep a lid on borrowing for all those real estate projects which sprout up like mushrooms in the desert.

At Cityscape, a major property show held in Dubai this week, Middle Eastern developers showed off their latest wares at stands costing up to $8 million dollars each. One new planned development outside of Dubai called Jumeria Gardens has a price tag of some $95 billion.

Think about it. That is more than the $87 billion bailout the British government used to bail out the UK banking system today.

All told there are an estimated $1 trillion of development projects throughout the region. Sovereign funds in the Middle East have a reported $1.5 trillion under management. That is a lot of liquidity.

While some of that money was used this week to inject capital into local markets and banks, it could also serve as a great source of funds for Wall Street and for European markets.

But there is a problem in the Middle East that is similar to the challenge throughout the West — a lack of confidence.

The sovereign funds came on strong at the end of last year with some high-profile investments into the major money center banks.

After falls of 50 percent or more, they too are in no rush to jump back into this market.

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Filed under: Business • Financial markets


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Ramsi Hashash   October 8th, 2008 1928 GMT

I probably am simplifying here, but this was the chance for GCC investors / countries or private business men to get a sizeable amount of major shares in major US financial institutions or even take them over outright. Why did they not do it? If Warren Buffet can invest 5 billion into Goldman, I assume that the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar could have easily done the same.

Did they not want to? Where they told of to do so? Or did they simply not have the right advisors on their side to be able to take a decisive decision?

I predict that the Dow Jones will hit below the 9000 mark within the next 2 weeks. That would be the bottom line starting with the 4th of November the Dow Jones will slowly raise again, no matter who the President will be.

At least this is my take on this.

Diana Savallisch   October 8th, 2008 2101 GMT

I would like to suggest rather than the feds buying a bunch of risky
mortgage’s why not let the bank who wrote the initial loan refinance the current amount owed by the buyer for a fair fixed rate thus lowering their monthly payment, finance the rewritten loan over a longer period thus lowering their payment, and place all payments currently delinquent by the buyer on the back side of the mortgage. This would keep home owners in their homes, start moving funds into the current stagnant banks, and sure up the real-estate market. With investment comes risk and when people invested in property they understand this, although they thought the gain would out weigh the risk. That said, the amount borrowed on their investment has fallen but it dose not mean that they have lost the value, unless they bail out on the property. Re write the amount owed on primary owner occupied residences, and over time the property will recover their losses.
Also note these citizens have to live/pay rent somewhere so why
not make it a win, win for the homeowner, and the banks?

Diana
Orlando FL

ron wilson   October 9th, 2008 816 GMT

Its only common sence, yes we´re in a financial pickle but I feel the panic is being stoked up more and more by the media(to include cnn) Im all for straight from the hip reporting but I dont think cnn should be managed like the daily telegraph or the Sun. Think about the effects and your moral oblegations befor you run the common man crazy.

George Yap   October 9th, 2008 858 GMT

Global crisis is here to stay? Companies and financial institutions crippled, individual investors’ portfolio in the red?. Yes, it has happened and will repeat even more frequently to an extend that will haunt you time and again. Allow me to bring you back to the stone age. Let ’s go back to basics. Bring yourself back to the stone age. Who are we back then? Are we equal back then? Yes and No?. Needing food and shelter to survive and driving away intruders and escaping from predators, avoiding natural calamities, sensed by natural animal instinct? The end statement is “Survival of the Fittest”. Yes is the answer. Today’s human expectations on needs and greed can no longer be differentiated. Material needs, goal achievements, pride and arrogance, deceit, misleads and misdeeds etc. etc will be here to stay. There is no longer human instinct, human touch. The human population is too big and borderless. Actual basic and material needs will be hard to differentiate. Protectionism and manipulation is the key word in this society now and I can say is irreversible. A day will come with finger pointing, leading to severed ties among nations and will then lead us into WAR of the world. As the saying goes, Hunger Knows No Law and so is Survival of the Fittest. Developed nations, super powers each has one thing in common. Pride and arrogance! Manipulation of commodities, stocks, paper currency trading, questionable paper accounting systems has gone beyond tracking, all at the expense of the defenseless to maintain their citizens living standard and rising cost of living. Just give a good thought with regards to the sharp rise and fall on oil prices. On one hand a couple of weeks ago, they claim that world oil demand exceeds supply and prices skyrocketted. Now, world economy is bad and demand drops. I tell that this is bullshit !!! No one really knows whether oil well will dry up, 30 to 50 years from now or it will never dry up at all!!! So what when oil well is dry? Well, go back then to the stone age, plant your own food, eat less, travel less, sleep early, and be happy. This is my philosophy!!!! So as a human being who has “brain” don’t let these big companies, superpowers and money launderers deceive you. Don’t be greedy. Be humble. Invest wisely and big gain = big loss. When oil price shoots up, cooperate to push it down further. The manipulators are creating uncertainties cut and we must defy them!!!!!.

H. Hicks   October 9th, 2008 1238 GMT

This is the first good news I’ve heard. If the ragheads in the middle east can’t sell their oil, and wealthy westerners fail to buy their vacation paradises surrounded by desert lands and seas filled with nematodes–we may have more financial leverage on what happens in the middle east and where they spend their vast liquid assets.

forexthinker.com   October 9th, 2008 1921 GMT

I doubt if optimism among people and enthusiasm among investors have subsided in the Middle East. They watched oil prices rise to slightly less than $150.00 per barrel, levels never thought of two years ago. The main beneficiary of the rise in the price of oil are governments. They have the plans and the financial ability to increase their spending on infrastructure as well as social programs. Current lack of confidence is natural. Like many, investors there are taking the wait and see attitude.

Mowa   October 9th, 2008 2252 GMT

Well the cleansing event in the US stock markets is certainly having its impacts elsewhere. At what point do the US and global markets stabilize? Another 20% drop–probably and at that point a foundation of necessary businesses survive. The other fluff along with stupid shareholder money as well as the executives and boardmembers responsible for many of the ills today coupled with their belief they are not accountable, morally or ethically bound nor have any responsibility except to themselves and their pockets will all get flushed down the drain. This same event will probably flush out of the US Congress many congressmen who deserve the same–especially the ones who jumped on the bail out bill feeding frenzing with all their earmarks–frankly we are getting what we deserve in the US and it seems many other countries may have been suffering from the same shortsided greed and stupidity as us. It will be interesting to see what/which companies are left standing as well as which politicians–my bet is the rats run from the boat, the crap gets flushed down the drain and by the end of year, the reality of all this finally settles into the public.
m

k.c. sheikh   October 10th, 2008 937 GMT

If they (sovereign wealth funds) sit on their money for too long they may not have anything left to buy of any value because they will not find customers to buy their products. Help others to help yourself should be the guiding principle.

Simon   October 10th, 2008 1208 GMT

Cityscape did not do as well as last year. Lots of visitors but no buyers.

To give a sense of how it was last year, one investor bought 17 floors (yes floors, not flats) in a single building and then moved on to buy more in other buildings.

That’s not happening at Cityscape 2008 especially after Dubai and Ajman U-Turned on the promise to grant residence permits to anyone who owns property in Dubai or Ajman.

Alexandra   October 10th, 2008 1729 GMT

This is a vicious circle. Governments are taking measures and one moment later government officials all over the world negate the measures taken by stating that the worst is yet to come and that the most difficult days are still ahead of us. ‘Confidence’ is a word that will have to be redefined

CoryJames   October 10th, 2008 1920 GMT

What I would like to know is how does the housing mortgages go bankrupt, but my school loan lives on?!?! I think its about time all of us with ridiculous school loans ban together and just say….”you know what? I am not paying anymore!”

How about the government looks at the ridiculous interest rates that college loans are at? Before long, we will all do what others did with their homes and say forget it, I can’t pay and I wont pay…what are they going to do about it? Take my diploma away?

Socialize College, not banking and housing markets.

Thomas   October 10th, 2008 1937 GMT

With the fact that there is still more of the subprime wave coming, why isnt there a proactive approach to re-writing all that paper to reasonable fixed rates most people who have a subprime could afford BEFORE they slip into foreclosure when the note resets and the payment goes up?? Why dont they get out ahead of at least this contributor to the crisis and eliminate this cause? (or at least further minimize it, obviously even if you re-write a mortgage from say 10% down to fixed 6.5% there will still be people who cant even afford that but it would minimize this issue immediately)

Francisco Marenco   October 10th, 2008 2023 GMT

This mess is going, like a big tide, or economic tsunami, flooding every where.At this point, I think this tide will stop until eliminate the last speculative pice of par, in a economy, based on the trust in our neighbor, who are hiding with his own treasure undertheir arms,this look like an apocaliptic mess.

S. Willoughby   October 10th, 2008 2114 GMT

I’ll have confidence when I get MY BAILOUT attached to a golden paachute!!!

Miklos Gerstenfeld   October 11th, 2008 634 GMT

I am reading every artickle, following CNN’s reporting over the economical situation in the world, and I am asking myself: ” What on earth are we discussing?” Have we all forgotten the basic principles of economics we learned from our parents? Our the world is built upon imaginary values and anything can happen. I am not a rich man but have no depts, sleeping in my fully paid house, drive my fully paid car and pay cash in the supermarket for my food. The root of our problems are coming from the same banks that are now in trouble. They offering us luxurous living paid by credit. They punish us with 40 % interest per year(Citibank, etc) for our creditcards(= ocker.) Big loans loans without collateral . Where is our scence for right or wrong? Lost in the American Dream exported to the whole world ?

Uma in Liverpool, UK   October 11th, 2008 725 GMT

Sorry if I can’t work myself up into a frenzy of pity for the plight of the wealthiest countries in the world.

From a council-flat, in a working-class suburb of Liverpool, UK, they are ‘poor little rich kids’. I’m glad they’re being ‘cautious’.

I am sick to death of rich people having problems because they are somewhat less rich. They should try living on what I get, from the government, by way of Disability benefit. It hasn’t gone up but once, in two years, and we have had INFLATION, in the past year.

Why does everyone bang on and on about ‘the middle class’, and not talk about the people who were ALREADY hard-up. I know, I am NOT poor. People in Haiti, India, Swaziland, now they are POOR.

I can’t make myself care, whether the UAE can fund some vast and incredibly expensive, unnecessary project, just now.

Andreas, Sweden   October 11th, 2008 1707 GMT

I think ME investors (like others) are watching intensely and awating what kind of new regulatory measures are being worked out by G7/20 in the following couple of days. Once these are known they will lower their fingers currently hovering over the ‘buy’ buttons, just wait and see.

mark Arnold   October 12th, 2008 2236 GMT

REAL HELP for home owners: Emergency National Cap on Mortgage Interest Rates
I am proposing a temporary (2-3 years) interest rate cap of 6.0% on all new and existing mortgages for owner occupied housing.

This plan offers REAL HELP to average citizens struggling to stay in their home in the face of rising adjustable rate mortgages. For example, a homeowner with a $200,000 mortgage with an adjustable rate currently at 10% would see their payment DROP by over $650 per month.

This plan COSTS THE TAXPAYERS NOTHING. Contrast this to current proposals (supported by almost no one EXCEPT the politicians) for the government to throw hundreds of billions of taxpayer’s money at bailing out the fat cats on Wall Street.

More affordable mortgage payments would stem the rising foreclosure rate and keep more people in their homes, thus addressing one of the root causes of our banking crisis. This in turn may go a long way toward solving the problem of falling home values caused by the glut of foreclosed properties on the market.

Capping mortgage rates places the responsibility for the problem is on the lenders who underwrote predatory adjustable rate mortgages. At today’s lower market interest rates a fixed 6% return offers a generous profit to responsible lenders. If some of the most aggressive lenders are driven out of business by the interest rate cap, let the stronger, more responsible banks take over and prudently manage their assets. The cleansing effect of this “Survival of the Fittest” approach is one of the key benefits of our capitalist system. .

From a political standpoint, the candidate proposing such a common sense policy with REAL BENEFITS to the average person would be providing the kind of leadership our citizens deserve and expect from our next president.

“Tea Party” is a commentary vehicle designed to advocate taking back control of our government from the special interests. The founder of Tea Party is Mark W. Arnold, a former Divisional Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager with firms including PaineWebber and Smith Barney. Inquires may be directed to Tea_Party@juno.com or Mark W. Arnold at (561) 945-8852.

Jørgen Simonsen   October 13th, 2008 1010 GMT

We have seen that legislators and politicians, financial entrepreneurs and bankers have exhibited a high degree off incompetence. - I hope that there will be a house cleaning during the financial crisis all over the world and especially in The United States Of America, where those who have shown incompetence will be given “jobs”, where they can do no more mischief

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