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October 8, 2008
Posted: 1725 GMT
LONDON, England – The economies of the Middle East are growing nicely, regionally about 7 percent this year. Oil revenues, with prices at around $85 a barrel, are still strong by historical standards. So why are the major markets of the region drowning in a sea of red? The simple answer is that these economies cannot stand alone in isolation with all the chaos around them. Markets in Saudi Arabia, Dubai and Cairo are now down more than 50 percent from their peaks in 2008. These heady markets have surged anywhere between 200 and 300 percent during the last five years. They surged in part because investors were enthusiastic about the future. The other volatile part of this equation is that a great deal of hot hedge-fund money came into the region in search of growth. But it left faster than many anticipated. There was a double-whammy, if you will. Many of the Western funds put money in thinking that the Gulf economies would soon abandon their pegs to the dollar after falling some 30 percent during the past few years. When leaders in the Gulf decided not to scrap that dollar peg, foreign investors looked for the exit. This major market correction, if we want to limit the description to that, is a big test for the central bankers of the Middle East. They have been working to expand their tool kit to control money supplies, battle record inflation and keep a lid on borrowing for all those real estate projects which sprout up like mushrooms in the desert. At Cityscape, a major property show held in Dubai this week, Middle Eastern developers showed off their latest wares at stands costing up to $8 million dollars each. One new planned development outside of Dubai called Jumeria Gardens has a price tag of some $95 billion. Think about it. That is more than the $87 billion bailout the British government used to bail out the UK banking system today. All told there are an estimated $1 trillion of development projects throughout the region. Sovereign funds in the Middle East have a reported $1.5 trillion under management. That is a lot of liquidity. While some of that money was used this week to inject capital into local markets and banks, it could also serve as a great source of funds for Wall Street and for European markets. But there is a problem in the Middle East that is similar to the challenge throughout the West — a lack of confidence. The sovereign funds came on strong at the end of last year with some high-profile investments into the major money center banks. After falls of 50 percent or more, they too are in no rush to jump back into this market. Posted by: CNN Anchor and Correspondent, John Defterios
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