NEW YORK - General Motors announced Wednesday that investors who had lent the company money over the years, through purchases of bonds, overwhelmingly rejected the company's offer to swap out that debt for stock.

It now seems certain the company is headed toward a bankruptcy filing.

Whatever the outcome, this event will surely be a critical turning point for the U.S. economy.

Analysts say if the bankruptcy is quick and surgical it could help give another boost to fragile confidence.

But, if the long list of creditors engage in a drawn out legal battle it raises the risk that GM may not survive at all.

It reminds me of a scene from a racing movie where there is a horrendous crash on the track and all the drivers in the back are racing for this big cloud of smoke. Most hit the brakes. But the leading man grips the wheel and hits the gas.

The driver is either going to crash into another vehicle in that smoke or avoid the crowd and come out in the lead. In Hollywood the hero comes out in the lead, having conquered both the competition and his fear.

But this is real life and things tend to be messier in real life.

The automotive industry is not as central as it once was, but its economic footprint extends to suppliers, dealers, restaurants and entire towns. Industry experts say GM only has about 3 or 4 weeks to prove it can emerge from bankruptcy quickly.

Many believe GM is too big and too complicated to achieve that.

But Chrysler’s journey through bankruptcy has defied the skeptics. The troubled company looks set to emerge from Chapter 11 next week. With the government’s heavy hand in the game, GM could also surprise.

What do you think? Will GM be able to come out stronger or is this the end of the road? Any optimists buying a GM car right now?

A lot has been made about the so called green shoots of recovery. And I'll be the first to admit it's a lot better than being in freefall.

But let's not get too excited here. There's a huge space between being out of freefall and getting to a sustained recovery.

When I think about recovery, I'm not talking about the end of negative growth. To me real recovery is one which growth rates are closer to longer term trends.

Don't get me wrong, the huge improvements we've seen in credit markets since the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September, and the sharp rally in stock markets off their March lows is certainly welcomed.

But my extensive travels over the last few months tell me, that there's still plenty of caution to go around.

I've been at several conferences, and when I ask people whether they feel the the sharp rally in equities is sustainable, many are skeptical and believe the markets at some point could retest their lows.

When I asked a group of chief financial officers and comptrollers when they expect a sustained economic recovery, a third of those who raised their hands believe it won't be until 2012 and beyond. And remember, these are the guys holding the purse strings.

As to the other two-thirds of that group, it was divided between next year and 2011.

I've been taking these informal polls since last November, and I'd say the majority of those I ask, believe any sustained recovery won't happen before 2011.

So what's standing in the way? Plenty. Unemployment in the United States and elsewhere continues to rise, consumers are focused on saving instead of spending, housing and commercial property in the U.S. and elsewhere remain under pressure, and banks continue to deleverage.

Confidence of course, is key to any recovery. Even once we get out of negative growth I fear we could bump along the bottom for a quite a while. I am not alone in this fear. I hope I am wrong, but I suspect I will turn out to be right.

 What do you think?

HONG KONG, China — The Chinese banner above a modest Hong Kong store reads, "Time Coupon Place."

The 'money' that buyers use at the 'Time Coupon Place' in Hong Kong.

It makes you wonder what this store sells. Does it sell clocks? Does it sell watches? No, not exactly. It literally buys and sells time through the old-fashioned art of bartering.

But there is more. I soon learn that the store is really a platform for creative buying and selling.

I walk into the store and am surrounded by a hodgepodge of items. Shelves are jammed with toys and used books. There are crates of vegetables for sale - eggplants, spinach, string beans. There is a table piled high with second-hand clothes, like denim jeans and cotton shirts.

Talk about a mixed bag. This is not your ordinary second-hand store. This is a time coupon store. It is a place that uses a combination of cash and time coupons as its currency. A time coupon looks like play money from the Monopoly board game. In this case, time coupons come in the value of minutes - from 1, 5, 10, 30 and 60 minutes.

Here is how it works:  If I agree to tutor someone in English for 30 minutes, I can earn a 30-minute time coupon. Then, for example, I can come to the store and buy a wooden toy boat with the 30-minute time coupon. The actual price tag has an hourglass symbol with the number "30" next to it.

This boat's price tag has an hourglass symbol with '30,' meaning you need a 30-minute coupon to buy it.

Only a few time coupon stores exist in Hong Kong. Community organizers and NGOs came up with the idea in a bid to help local families save money. The first time coupon store launched here in 2001 with a few members. (It is easy to become a member. You pay a small membership fee and sit through an orientation class to learn how time coupons work. Anyone can join.)

But in the past six months, 120 new members have joined, pushing up the total membership to 1,200. It is a significant spike, which community organizers attribute to the current global recession. You can also earn time coupons by donating used items that other members might want. This explains the random assortment of stuff around the store.

On the day I visited, I noticed the most popular items were organic vegetables. A farmer had rolled in a cart of fresh vegetables straight from her organic farm in the New Territories, which is across the harbor from Hong Kong island. A few customers hovered over the different crates - pulling, picking and squeezing the greens. Each vegetable is priced with a combination of time coupons and cash. For example, a bunch of eggplants and spinach might cost a 11-minute time coupon and 7 Hong Kong dollars (about US$1). Not a bad deal!

The old-fashioned idea of bartering skills, services and personal items seems to be the new practical "trend." In Argentina, barter clubs are gaining popularity. The barter clubs started there in 2002 after Argentina's economy took a dive. Then they sort of faded away and now they are enjoying another surge in this recession.

Back at the Hong Kong time coupon store, a woman quietly works at a sewing machine in the back corner. She is creating fabric handbags that are a nice patchwork of different colors. The handbags are sold at the front of the store. The community organizer says the handbags are quite popular with the expatriates who wander into the store. The seamstress splits the proceeds with the time coupon store in yet another creative way of doing business.

As I exit the store, I appreciate the idea of a different kind of currency. Time has value. Time is money. But here is the added bonus: community involvement.

TOKYO, Japan - I’d been in Tokyo for just a couple of days when we went to visit Akihabara, Tokyo’s electronics Mecca. Coming from my most recent post in Havana, it was as it I’d landed on the moon.

Everywhere you look are neon billboards hawking the latest playstation game as if it were a Hollywood film. Giant flatscreen TVs, camcorders and digital cameras jockey for space with the latest in cellphone/TV/PDA/portable audio players.

A bit of a jolt after the anti-capitalist island, where most billboards are hand-painted government propaganda.

We were in Akihabara to guage how shoppers felt about Sony’s offerings for a story to release with Sony’s financial results for 2008.  And honestly, most people we talked to were upbeat about Sony’s products. One young Chinese woman in town to shop told us “Chinese people love Sony!”

But it was hard not to spot signs of Sony’s problems. On a street filled with shoppers listening to their iPods, the Sony Walkman seemed an out-of-step afterthought. And one young man told us he loved Sony’s designs, but added that all the company’s products seemed overpriced.

So how do you survive a firewalk?

HONG KONG, China - My producer Pamela Boykoff somehow convinced me that walking on fire for the cameras was a good idea.

 Companies have been firing staff and now are trying to fire up those who remain. What better way to illustrate the corporate world's troubles than to show employees - and yours truly - walking over burning coals?

 So what is the point of this exercise, you ask?

Data storage firm EMC, the company that hosted the firewalk in Hong Kong for its employees, said the aim was to build teamwork. Companies pull staffers out of their comfort zone so, ultimately they bond and think outside of the box.

The idea, Steven Leonard, Asia president for EMC, told me, is that people are going through something together. The act, he said, is a "catharsis." I guess that is more powerful than taking the team out for a group dinner.

 I have to say the EMC employees seemed to be enjoying themselves - and bonding - as they overcame what many would perceive as a potentially traumatic experience. I, too, found the walk rewarding - probably because I managed to do it without engulfing myself in flames.

 So how do you survive a firewalk? I'm no expert, but here are a couple of tips:

 1. Don't panic.

 The real danger is playing mind tricks on yourself. Firewalk organizer Ronnie Ng says to imagine you are walking on a dewy field of grass. The secret is that a layer of embers protect your feet.

 3. Proceed at a normal pace - with confidence.

 Go too fast and bits of scalding coal get stuck between your toes. Walk too slowly - more than 3 seconds per step - and prepare for some blistering. Keep your eyes looking ahead. When you get it right, it should feel as though you are walking calmly along beach sands warmed by the sun.

 3. A back-up plan ... doesn't hurt.

 Chances are you won't need medical help, but Ng had buckets of ice water and olive oil on hand to soothe burning feet. The ice water, he said, stops pain. The oil was to help prevent blisters. Hong Kong has some excellent hospitals. Luckily, no one needed to go.

Don't panic. Proceed calmly. Have a back-up plan. Sounds like the same advice given to investors these days. Hopefully, these lessons can help us all avoid getting burned in business, too.

Watch my report

LONDON, England – Before we get excited about the auto industry transforming under the Fiat flag, remember that the Italian automaker hasn't bought anything yet.

Its "alliance" with Chrysler is now before a bankruptcy judge and involves sharing technology. Fiat is not buying its proposed 20 per cent stake in Chrysler and will still have to deal with the unions, which will have the biggest stake in the U.S. automaker.

Still, one day it may mean small fuel efficient Fiat cars being sold as a re-badged Chrysler or Dodge car. Maybe.

One day, Jeeps and Dodge trucks may be sold through the Fiat supply chain to countries where it has strong links. Maybe.

Before that, Chrysler has to survive its bankruptcy protection process. Now Fiat's CEO Sergio Marchionne wants to negotiate with General Motors to potentially buy a majority stake in GM Europe - read Germany's Opel. But Fiat is billions of dollars in debt and Opel will need a cash infusion ($6 to $9 billion) probably from the German government as a short term loan. That has yet to happen.

Then there are the unions, the factories, political interference... It's all a massive task for Marchionne. On Monday he met with the German government. It's far from clear Berlin will back a deal with Fiat while there are other suitors out there. In fact, GM says it's in talks with a number of parties and it's clear GM wants to keep a foot in Europe for when things turn around.

So while Fiat may be the only automaker willing to take all this on, it is all talk for now.

Fiat has been transformed by Marchionne, that's for sure. Whether he can take all this on is certainly not a given. Some analysts believe his Plan B is to take on Chrysler or GM Europe. Until one or both of them is sewn up, a combination of the two leads to speculation that Fiat will transform the auto landscape.