August 10, 2009
Posted: 1340 GMT

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman is a famous man and particularly in Malaysia's political circles.

During the Asian financial crisis a decade ago, the American economist stunned most Western observers when he suggested that capital controls could be a viable antidote to a financial meltdown.

But that is exactly what Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad had concluded as well.  Mahathir slapped capital controls on his country's financial flows to stop international speculators dead in their tracks. 

His decision was controversial at the time, but many of his critics now concede that Mahathir's tactic helped bolster Malaysia's economy rather than hurt it.  Krugman gets a lot of kudos here in Kuala Lumpur, too.

So how does Krugman suggest you track this global financial crisis?

1. Keep an eye on jobs.  "We can have a technical recovery where GDP is growing or industrial production is growing."  He told me, "But that's not going to matter for most people."  He wants to see countries worldwide adding jobs before he's convinced the economy is recovering.

2. Be wary of banks and oil.  Oil prices are hovering around $70/barrel during an unprecedented economic downturn.  "That's telling you that we've got a lot of pressure on oil supplies," Krugman said.  "And if the world economy starts to come back, oil prices will probably come up a lot, and that's a big brake on the recovery."

3. Consider working in health care.  Banking... not so much.  "Everybody's got real second thoughts about whether what's good for the trading floor is good for the economy," he said.  Trading floors are going to get "simpler" and "a lot more boring."

Veteran policymakers in Malaysia might think that would be a good thing, too.

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Filed under: Biz Clinic • Financial crisis


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Yavor   August 10th, 2009 1357 GMT

I know that world situation is difficult but have a some question. USA and west Europe make more production and is a have major manifactures. Can invest in new technology alternative energy and other to make using of petrol smaller. I have one idea and hope some day to patent it. I know easy way to make small quantity energy self every house.

Russ   August 11th, 2009 514 GMT

The cost of oil is lower in Euros compared to 10 years back is it not?

It is the dollar that has gone down the toilet – not that oil has gone up so much.

Nam(South Korea, Busan)   August 11th, 2009 706 GMT

I disagree....his view on China.....
China is a big player.

And he knows Adam Smith, Keynes..... but he don't know Confucius.

Per Holmlund   August 11th, 2009 1209 GMT

Countdown

3. “FOR the first time since the Depression, the American economy has added virtually no jobs in the private sector over a 10-year period… Health care jobs continued to grow, particularly jobs that involve caring for the elderly… NYT

And with a new health care formula jobs will continue to be created in healthcare. But hard to see how cost for health care costs will shrink with a booming health care job market. Can health care, particularly taking care of old people, bee the driver for future economic growth?

And then natural with boring trade floors when capital is going to health care (keeping the old economy alive) and not to creation of a new economy.

2. Have Focus on the dollar, bonds and gold. If things go wrong the big dragons will see it first and if they do it will weaken the dollar and bonds and strengthen gold. It’s like DJ US financials index during the spring and summer of 2007. They, the big dragons, didn’t have a clue?

1. 2000 surplus, 2007 deficits and 20XX bigger deficits, 20XX when the recovery cycle of today is moving out of it’s peak . A recovery cycle in which job creation will be hurt by technology improvements created the last decade. Technology improvements that make it possible to rationalize white color jobs.

But smart politicians will develop alternatives if things go sour. More governmental spending, bigger deficits and capital controls in US.

TheSteelGeneral   August 11th, 2009 1239 GMT

Krugman is a hero. But I really love Repubs these days, who maintain the lie of the so-called liberal media in the face of Anti-Choice movies like Juno, Knocked Up and 17 Again.

Banks, we need them, but why do they need to make more money than god?
They're dealing with OTHERS peoples money, and aren't accountable like govt employees are ... That is, except for police and the military, they can pretty much do whatever they want, like TASER a 70 year old grandma and arrest a cripple for Contempt of Cop.

The real problem these days is figuring out why poor whites are fighting for the wallet of the rich. Oh wait, they are being paid to do so? Well that sure explains a lot.

TheSteelGeneral   August 11th, 2009 1247 GMT

Krugman is almost touching on the essence of the problem, which is that known Republicans, like the CEO's of banks and HMO's, are fighting AGAINST competitive capitalism. Obama wants to restore competition. The culprits make billions a year, it's not that crazy to try to protect that. And they don't care to break the law to do that. Their strategy is to rile up some poor schmuck so much that he will attempt and hopefully not succeed that some type of violent attack on Democrats. Then they will say: "See what you get with your ""'socialism""' ?? It's better if you just do what we tell you to, and become Bush light."
FoKKKs news (and no the KKK is not exaggerated) is just waiting and hoping until they strike media Gold: political blood. Or rather: real physical blood from a Democrat.

Robert   August 11th, 2009 1306 GMT

When will(anytime in the near future) the constraints impossed by the UN be lifted and Iraq economy be able to start adjusting to local countries? Currently working in Iraq, have see allot of improvements over the Last 2 years. I get off the base camps allot, 2 years ago streets pretty bare now lots of shops and people making a sparse living, lifting the constraints would greatly help the people and the move towards a better tomorrow.

jacob t. chachkes,M.D.   August 12th, 2009 027 GMT

An outstanding capitalist, Henry Ford, held similar views. As you no doubt know, he gave his unsolicited raise. When questioned by peers, he said,"If I don't give them a raise, who will buy my cars?". No business, including health (care), can survive if the people have no money with which to buy.

Jahswill Ossai(Lagos, Nigeria)   August 12th, 2009 651 GMT

On a grand scale, I completely agree with Krugman's forecast. The impact of the global economic downturn may not have been overemphasized.

If "rich" nations are losing so much liquidity, what would "poor" and developing nations lose?

This is like collecting water from a river with a big basket!

Andreas, Stockholm   August 12th, 2009 816 GMT

I hear what Krugman is saying but am still skeptic regarding the -regulation- direction that also seems to be coming around the corner. The problem as I see it is the plethora of 'instruments' that became ever more theoretical and esoteric. If scrutiny and risk assessment of these types of investment vehicles are handed over to some regulatory body then we will have learned nothing from this recent disaster. In a way it was precisely because everybody believed in the rating agencies' labeling of the MBS's rather than doing their own evaluation that led to the blind and wreckless issuance in the first place.

We are still waiting for the final verdict on the rating agencies which is where real reform is needed IMO.

mary_clyne   August 12th, 2009 2159 GMT

Pres Obama needs all of you who want Health Reform behind him.He said that he was going to work.with the re-pubs but the re-pubs do not care about the poor or middle class .All they care about is themselves and being in control of your lives.Instead of being on this Site write the Pres ,Phone him,Email,Text . Tell him to forget about Bipartisanship and get Health care, Educacional care .Every thing he has to do to take Take power from the hands of the Politician and Corporations and put it back it back in the hands of the People .Get off these forums send your messages to him and other Dem's and then you come back here and encourage the rest SORRY ABOUT THE PREVIOUS POST

james hotz   August 18th, 2009 926 GMT

I agree with Paul, recessions are scary, and this one maybe worse than the one, in 1973. And that is scary.

Dr. Debra Zerr   August 21st, 2009 1644 GMT

I just received a letter from my credit card company that they were raising their rates across the board to 25% over prime. This is an effort to bilk the working public for as much as they can before the new laws come into effect. It is bad enough that they can cry and the government bails them out so that they can continue to travel the globe in their luxury jets and receive more in bonuses than those of us in the middle class will see in three lifetimes. Who will listen to our cries and bail us out as were are faced with ever increasing expenses and declining salaries. Where is the government for us?

Jeffrey   August 27th, 2009 1740 GMT

Dear CNN,

Will you push for the release of all 5400 names in the tax evasion scandal with UBS's cross-border case? This should be front page new and one of the most talked about instances of tax evasion in America, but I have heard nothing of the case from main stream media, why is that?

Sincerely,

Jeffrey

ginsengjohn   September 1st, 2009 1302 GMT

How much and to who has China paid to protect its copper interests in Afgani land? Also, who is getting rich on the major increase in the supply of opium from Afgani land? Where is all the opium going? All that opium/heroin is the worst thing for a country. Ask China about the lessons of the opium wars?

jacob t. chachkes,M.D.   September 20th, 2009 1934 GMT

the voting people seem to buy in to anger rather than thought. When we all realize that we can 'throw the rascals out' we will have a government of the people, for the people,by the people'.
Or do we have that now, and 'the people' are self destructive, as with electing W twice, and ignoring that our deficit and middle east swamp is significantly due to his policies?
2008 was a vote for change, but 'the people' seem to want services and military and energy etc without paying for it, or DEMANDING that the top 1% pay for the protection and services they get?

Greg, Ontario   November 16th, 2009 1747 GMT

jobs , jobs , jobs...what a load of crap. This guy is suggesting that workers in the US and Canada should accept the slavery wages offered to workers in China and the likes of India and Pakistan? That would get that 10% back to work but what spending power would they have? Sense when is 90% such a bad thing? We were in the midst of a global economic crisis the likes of wich few of us are old enough to remember and the job losses are at 10.2 %. If that isn't putting up a good fight what is?
What would really turn it around is immigration controls tightened (how often do we immigrate there?..very seldom), we start using our own Oil or offer 1 or 2 bushels of wheat for 1 barrel of Oil. We need to stand up to the Walmarts and countries like China, India and Japan and tell them we want a synchronised trade agreement and we want it enforced with equal standards. China needs to float it's currency like the rest of the world or the free market can set it for them.
Unpatriotic corporations that send work out of the country should lose thier business license or be taxed to a level that moving is no longer cost effective. Any or all of these actions would have a seriously positive effect on the economy but it takes intestinal fortitude by the people and the government and there is the rub.

Stephen Paul   November 17th, 2009 1849 GMT

I agree with Greg, Ontario more than he knows. I've been a part of this exodus of jobs for 30 years (unwillingly) and know what damage it has done. We (the USA and Canada) must go back to basic self protection. Not protectionism but a smart brand of it. It makes no sense to send our jobs away so that CEO's and board members and stock holders can become filthy rich. It seems they all have their own economy which isn't in our interest.
Without jobs (manufacturing is where it's at) everyone suffers. A service economy will not sustain itself. Gregg's point on tax reform and taxing those who send jobs away is on target. If we don't protect ourselves who will? It goes to our basic societal needs and our safety. Without jobs the unemployed become desperate, crime grows, desperation breeds welfare so who wins? Bring jobs back. Stop using the employment index, use the FICA receipts on how the economy is doing; that will tell us all we know real time. Why don't we hear from CNN that bringing jobs back is all important. Consider that when job loss is the news of the day fewer numbers are found when there are fewer jobs to lose. Does the government believe we are idiots? Yes, they do and we're not. This can't continue like this for much longer, it's un-American. We started a micro business for our son but the government does nothing to help with this, only the richest are allowed to survive here. I have much more in a positive light but room here is so short. The common man as myself would like to have a real platform to talk to America about starting to fix this. It's not too late. I'd like to hear commentators talk about bringing jobs back, not creating new ones. That is not going to keep the dollar strong.
Steve

Ray - Australia   November 18th, 2009 2229 GMT

i noticed today that a major U.S. bank may put aside as much as 12 billion dollars for it's employee bonus scheme.
yesterday i read a report that said nearly 49 million people in the U.S. struggle to put food on the table.

we all saw the idiotic debt binge that resulted in the present financial position that the U.S. now finds itself.
we also watch as the leader of the democratic world ships it's manufacturing base to asia. ( my country does this also ).
at this rate " the business of America" will not be business.

the founding fathers of America would be appalled at the whole scenerio!.

what the hell is going on?.

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