October 30, 2009
Posted: 1230 GMT

Abu Dhabi, U.A.E. - A central bank has to exude a sense of calm, stability and solidity. I have had the chance to enter a few of these landmark buildings around the globe, most notably the U.S. Federal Reserve, the former Bundesbank in Frankfurt and the Bank of England. 

Abu Dhabi's Formula One debut is seen as the emirate's coming out party.
Abu Dhabi's Formula One debut is seen as the emirate's coming out party.

The halls of the central bank of the United Arab Emirates provide the feeling of a different era. The Bank's communications director has been in his post for nearly four decades, the central banker himself, Sultan Nasser Al Suwaidi, for two decades.

The pace is measured inside the Bank, a complete contrast to the activity outside as the capital of the UAE hosts its first Formula 1 race this weekend - an event that is Abu Dhabi’s coming out party after neighboring Dubai commanded the spotlight for the past 20 years as the financial, trade and tourism hub of the region.

The emirate is buzzing with activity -– singer Beyonce led a weekend line up of concerts -– the corniche in the city center is filled with visitors around the new $2 billion landmark the Emirates Palace Hotel and workers at our hotel the Fairmont were scrambling to put the final touches on rooms to accommodate a surge of arrivals.

One gets the feeling that life here in Abu Dhabi will change dramatically after this weekend. The Emirate sits atop eight percent of the world's oil reserves and has the largest single sovereign wealth fund, with seven others created in the last few years as well. Money is not an issue for the 400,000 or so local Emiratis.

Abu Dhabi owns stakes in Daimler, EADS, GE, Rolls Royce and most recently Ferrari, which led them nicely into the F1 business by affiliation. With that backdrop of activity, one would expect a rethink perhaps of its partnerships and policies. That would be a miscalculation.

Back at the central bank, the Governor in our exclusive interview knocks back any suggestion of change: "We do not see any alternative so far to the U.S. dollar." I probe a bit more to get his views on the secret talks that reportedly took place around the IMF-World Bank meetings in Istanbul, to which he replied, "There was absolutely no discussion on the issue of re-pricing... absolutely not."

The look was consistent with the tone: Steady, serious and matter of fact. It is the same response that came from the Bank in the past 12 months. Al Suwaidi believes the worst is behind the UAE and is confident that the economy will end up in positive territory when the final tally is marked on 2009.

From the calm within the Central Bank, it is time to go back outside where the pace is markedly different and it is literally back to the races.

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October 29, 2009
Posted: 1053 GMT

Gary Locke may be the top commerce official in America, but he's a rock star in China.

Locke was a hit with locals on a recent visit to China.
Locke was a hit with locals on a recent visit to China.

This week, the Chinese-American politician who is now U.S. Commerce Secretary, visited cities in the manufacturing heartland of China ahead of his high-level trade talks in Hangzhou.

Locke is joined by U.S. officials such as Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, Trade Representative Ron Kirk, and Ambassador Jon Huntsman, who are here meeting with top Chinese officials including Vice Premier Wang Qishan.

I managed to catch up with Locke in Guangzhou, the capital of the province of Guangdong, where his grandfather was born. You would have thought Locke was a celebrity. During his tour of a Sam's Club superstore and a local university, Locke was mobbed by fans, press, and curious on-lookers all eager to catch a glimpse of their hometown hero.

Locke's grandfather lived in a village in this part of China before leaving for the United States in the hope of a better life. Grandfather Locke emigrated to Washington state where he took a job as a servant for a local family who lived one mile away from the Governor's Mansion. I wonder if Grandfather Locke ever dreamed his grandson would be serving people as well - as governor and now commerce secretary.

Locke told me his personal story is "thoroughly American" but that his Chinese heritage comes in handy in trade negotiations here. "I bring, perhaps, a greater understanding of the culture and history of the Chinese people," he said during our exclusive interview.

These days, the U.S. and China could use a little more understanding. Because of the economic crisis, the bond between the two trading partners has been stretched.

Earlier this year, the Obama administration slapped tariffs on Chinese tires sold in the U.S. Soon after, the Chinese threatened to cut off imports of American poultry products and auto parts.

Locke played down fears of a coming trade war. "When you look at the relationship of say brothers and sisters, the relationship when you are small and young might be very simplistic. But as the families get older they get into more complicated issues," he explained. "But it is the sign of a healthy relationship."

Locke insists the trade disputes won't distract the two nations from cooperating on larger issues such as climate change or regional security. However, even before Secretary Locke has left China, Beijing has informed Washington it is launching a trade investigation that could lead to new import duties on vehicles made by Detroit's struggling Big Three automakers (General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler), according to a U.S. auto industry official.

Hopefully, Locke's experience bridging two cultures will help bridge any economic split.

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Filed under: Asia • Business • China


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October 26, 2009
Posted: 1515 GMT

Hong Kong, China - As long as there are free markets and humans remain emotional creatures, there will always be financial crises.

So says renowned British historian Niall Ferguson. The Harvard University professor and I had a chance to meet in Hong Kong at a recent investors' conference. He shared his observations on the current economic crisis.

CNN: Is there anything unique about this recession?

Ferguson: This isn't a recession is the first point to make. It's a near depression. In fact, I am calling it the Slight Depression to distinguish it from the Great Depression of 1929 to 1933. And the unique thing is that we nearly repeated history. In other words we nearly repeated the Great Depression, but we avoided it with massive monetary and fiscal stimulus. So we are in new territory.

CNN: When does government intervention work?

Ferguson: We need to be very careful when we talk about government intervention. That covers a multitude of sins. There was a lot of government intervention in the Soviet Union and we know how that story ended. So we are talking very specifically here about two policies: one is the use of central bank money creating power to avoid a liquidity crisis that crunches the entire banking system. So intervention by the (U.S.) Federal Reserve beginning in 2007 and escalating in September of 2008 was primarily designed to avoid massive bank failures of the sort that made the Depression so serious in the early 1930s. And I think there is no question that we have learned from history and Ben Bernanke, as chairman of the Fed, has learned from history, that it's a good idea to avoid a generalized collapse of the banking system.

CNN: When does government intervention not work?

Ferguson: The other kind of government intervention, which is slightly more problematic, is the sort in which the government runs a large deficit in order to stimulate the economy by building roads and building bridges in order to get people back to work in the hope that in doing that, it will generate a recovery. This is the model developed by John Maynard Keynes back in the 1930s and it's been used by countries around the world to varying degrees. And to some extent, this has been effective. But the problem is, in the United States, you are adding a stimulus on top of an already huge structural deficit in the public finances, and the prospect of a trillion dollars of new borrowing every year for the decade ahead, that scares me and it should scare everybody.

CNN: There's been a backlash against the financial world, especially Wall Street. Have we seen the same level of fury after past crises and where does that vitriol lead?

Ferguson: It's not, by any means, the first time that people have felt furious of what they have seen going on in Wall Street: a financial speculative bubble that bursts and causes a recession which drives other people, ordinary folks out of jobs. The question is just how far this populous backlash is going to go in the United States and indeed around the world now. My suspicion is that it's got a ways to go. Each time an American loses his or her job, not surprisingly, he or she looks around and asks who's to blame for this. And when they see on Wall Street, the banks paying out million-dollar bonuses with what appears to be, and in some cases is, taxpayer money from the TARP fund, I am not at all surprised that people feel mad. And when they feel mad, they turn around and they say, 'How can I express this anger? Who can I vote for who is going to articulate my feelings of frustration?' And I wouldn't be at all surprised to see, as we approach the mid-term elections, more and more politicians, particularly Republicans, trying to articulate that sense of popular grievance.

What lessons have you learned from the current economic crisis? Tell us what your experiences are.

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Filed under: Biz Clinic • Financial crisis • Financial markets


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October 23, 2009
Posted: 1557 GMT

You would not know that we were in the midst of a sputtering economic recovery when examining the price of oil these days. At around $80 a barrel, which we witnessed this past week, the price of the precious commodity is about $60 above its 20-year average.

New oil finds are promising and seemed to surprise even the most seasoned hands in the business .
New oil finds are promising and seemed to surprise even the most seasoned hands in the business .

The math adds up for the Arabian Gulf producers who are part of what one seasoned energy consultant called the supply management club - OPEC. For all the back seat analysis in the cascade down from $147 to the mid-thirty level, this price recovery to a one-year high speaks wonders about how to manage your assets.

I had a chance to catch up with the core group of oil ministers, senior executives and those who consult the industry at the annual Oil and Money conference in London. Prices are double what they were a year ago, when we did not know whether some of the world’s money center banks would be able to keep their doors open. But, this steady march back to the current level makes a lot of sense.

The OPEC supply management club and a lack of oil are two key elements, but what else is driving this market? Especially when you consider that one half of the world – the East - has recovered while the other half – the West - is in danger, economically speaking, of being parked in neutral?

This requires a two-part answer: one deals with getting access to the giant fields, according to Jonathan Stern of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. The other with political uncertainty in countries such as Nigeria, Iran and Venezuela.

“What we are looking at here is really quite expensive oil that you need at least a $40-50 oil price to be confident you will make a decent return on,” commented Stern.

The market was quite excited about new finds in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Brazil, and in Kazakhstan. They are promising and seemed to surprise even the most seasoned hands in the business. The problem is that the older fields in the Middle East and the North Sea, for example, are dropping fast and replacement costs are much higher today than four decades ago.

After the new promising discoveries of the past year, there is less discussion about “peak oil” – where oil production is in steady decline - but the $80 price may be pointing to a new era. “The low-hanging fruit has already been taken,” says Vahan Zanoyan, Chief Executive Officer of First Energy Bank in Bahrain, “After 40 years of this process, it is not surprising that all of what is left are the tough ones.”

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Filed under: Marketplace Middle East


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October 22, 2009
Posted: 302 GMT

China = 1.3 billion people.

That’s an equation that intoxicates marketers and drives businesses to invest serious cash in capturing the Chinese consumer.

But experts in brand marketing in China warn businesses not to get dazzled by the numbers. China's consumer market is large, but it is also complex, fragmented and fiercely competitive. If you want a piece of the action, you better do your homework and be prepared to stay for the long term.

Here are a few tips from our experts.

Target your customers

Only 33.5% of retail sales now come from China's top 24 cities, according to a study from Ogilvy & Mather Group China. China's smaller cities and towns are a growing market for foreign brands.

However, consumers in these areas have considerably different shopping habits than those in big cities. They are less hurried, spend more time in public spaces and have limited access to the Internet. Differences like these can be crucial for market strategy.

Regional, cultural and ethnic differences have to be considered as well. Chris Reitermann, President of Ogilvy Shanghai, says focusing on a smaller market segment can pay off more than a broad, unrefined strategy.

Have a local partner

There are a lot of benefits to choosing the right Chinese partner and building a strong relationship with them. GM, a long-term success story in the Chinese market, has made out of its joint ventures with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. "They know the market," says GM marketer Joseph Liu. "They help us on the distribution side. They bring the government relationship which is extremely important in China."

Take your time

Both our experts advise that building a brand in China is an energy and time-consuming business. Liu recommends putting someone in China full time to build relationships. Reitermann says studying the Chinese way of life can help you build a marketing campaign that is sensitive to local culture and appeals to local tastes.

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October 19, 2009
Posted: 848 GMT

SEOUL, South Korea - There are a few reasons why Kim Han-Chal calls his supercar the “Tiger.”

The first is apparent when you get behind the wheel of the Spirra. Zero to 100 kilometers per hour (0-62 mph) in 3.8 seconds with 500 horsepower, your throat hits the back of your neck as the gas pedal hits the floor. The Spirra is the definition of supercar: fast, sporty, sleep, and a six-figure U.S.-dollar price tag.

But the more important reason Kim, the creator of the car, calls it the “Tiger,” is that the animal is a powerful symbol of Korea. That’s apropos for Korea’s first venture into the supercar market, made with all Korean parts, built with Korean hands. “We were the only country that didn't have a supercar,” Kim says. Neighbor Japan has a Toyota and Honda supercar, and Germany and Italy has Porsche and Lamborghini.

The car enthusiast, who pledges if you check carefully he has gas running in his veins, dreamed of building a car on his home soil. He believed in his countrymen’s ability to produce a high-end car, not just the reliable, eco-friendly Hyundai or Kia.

For 10 years, he tinkered with designs and poured his money into concept car after concept car. But it wasn't until he partnered with Oullim motors, backed by the wealth of a high tech company, that he began production. Now Europe is his first major customer. A dealer in the Netherlands purchased 145 orders of his handmade cars over the next three years, marking the first commercial entrée of his supercar into the global market.

CLSA auto analyst Christopher J. Richter says supercars are often losing business ventures and are built to send a message. “These guys, I think the message they want say is 'Hey, we can make a super car too, high performance car too, and we can do it with all Korean components. It stirs the pot a little bit and shows that auto-making is not just about Germany or Japan, but Korean auto-makers have a valuable contribution to make.”

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Filed under: Auto industry • Business • South Korea


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Posted: 511 GMT

Sometimes I think if you want to be a serious investor, you shouldn't become a business journalist. Sure, you learn a lot about various industries and get insightful advice from experts at the top of their game. On the other hand, you know all too well how everything can go terribly awry.

Jim Rogers, the famed commodities investor and author of new book "A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons for Life and Investing," admitted to me that he is a horrible short-term investor.  However, he says you don't need to be a good trader to make money.

Here are his tips for anyone looking to invest in the current economic crisis:

1) Buy what you know. "You should only buy things that you yourself know a lot about - whether it's cars, sports, hairdressing, fashion, or whatever it is," he told me.  "Do some research, do some homework, and if you see something really dramatic changing that is cheap, buy it.  You are going to know about it long before I am, long before a broker on Wall Street is, and that is how you are going to make a lot of money. "

2) Don't be cocky. "Being overactive is usually a mistake," Rogers mused.  "It always leads to problems.  People don't like it.  They want to jump around all the time.  That's not the way to succeed as an investor."

3) Buy low, sell high. "It's as simple as that," he said.  "Nobody likes to hear it.  Now that is so simple and so easy, but you cannot believe how difficult it is to buy low and sell high.  That is the hard part."

So what is Rogers doing with his money?

He wouldn't buy stocks today - not even in emerging markets.  He is selling the U.S. dollar because "it's a flawed currency."  Today, he would put new investments into commodities or what he thinks are "sound" currencies such as the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen.  And one of his favorites - farmland.  With food prices rising, he believes farmland "may be one of the best investments a person can make in 2010."  But get to know the farmer and the industry first, he reminded me.

In other words, be sure to do your homework.

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Filed under: Biz Clinic • Business • Investment


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October 15, 2009
Posted: 1120 GMT

LONDON, England (CNN) - Just over a year ago, the heart of the financial system nearly stopped beating. The collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a massive collapse in confidence, the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, and an unprecendented response by governments and central banks.

Now given J.P. Morgan's best earnings in two years and the announcement of massive profits at Goldman Sachs, one has to ask: Crisis, what crisis?

Especially if you look at compensation levels. According to the Wall Street Journal, staff at major U.S. banks and securities firms will make as much as $140 billion this year - a record high - more than the previous peak of 2007.

Now there's nothing new about big amounts of money being earned on Wall Street. But given that we the taxpayer funded the bailout of Wall Street, and will be paying for it for generations, it does beg the question about sharing the pain with Main Street.

To be fair to J.P. Morgan Chase, it didn't get caught up in some of the reckless behavior that other big players on Wall Street did.

Goldman Sachs is another extremely well run bank, but has become the poster child for Wall Street's perceived greed, what one writer described as "a giant vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity."

Its expected bonus pool this year, some $23 billion, hardly seems like a chastened Wall Street. It's a fair target because it was bailed out by government, and that makes it fair game for criticism.

Business may be rebounding smartly for Wall Street but until Main Street's pain is over, Wall Street may want to think twice about paying hefty compensation.

What do you think?

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Filed under: Business • Financial crisis


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October 13, 2009
Posted: 2333 GMT

Five years ago, Garuda Indonesia was an airline that seemed to be on a path of constant turbulence. It was losing money year after year, battling allegations of corruption within the state-owned enterprise and stained with a questionable safety record. Today, Garuda is a symbol of what's possible in the difficult airline industry. You need a leader with focus.

Emirsyah Satar, 50, is the CEO of Garuda. Now in his fifth year as the head of the national airline, he has turned Garuda from problematic to profitable through staged planning. “In the first two years, just surviving was good enough. And then the next two years was the turnaround stage,” he said. Now the airline is embarking on the growth stage.

The son of an Indonesian diplomat who grew up in Mexico City and Prague, Satar went on to become a banker and then the CEO of Bank Danamon, Indonesia's fifth largest bank. In 2005, he was brought to Garuda as President and CEO and he made drastic changes from the start.

"What happened in 2005, the business model was just not working,” Satar said. It increased accountability at all levels in the organization. And in the short term, Satar decided less was more: “We got out of routes where we were losing money … it was ok if we reduced our market so we could become profitable again."

He positioned Garuda as a “premium airline” and told his staff not to worry about local competition. With a domestic population of 240 million people, he bet focus on the cream of the crop would keep Garuda afloat while it restructured. His bet paid off, in part because Indonesia sidestepped the brunt of the global downturn thanks to the strength of its domestic market: Indonesia's economy is still growing at around 4 percent.

While Garuda is still juggling $700 million in debt, the state-owned enterprise has been able to turn a profit the past two years. Satar has plans to make what he calls a "quantum leap."  By 2014, he wants to bring the fleet from the current 66 to 116 aircraft.

The big challenge now is getting a stalled IPO back on track. Satar had wanted to bring Garuda public this year, but the global downturn put a halt to that. Now he's shooting for an IPO for June 2010. The airline is also in the process of restructuring its debt, which Satar hopes to have completed by the end of this month.

Then there was the issue of safety. In the past decade, a string of crashes involving various Indonesian airlines eroded the public trust in Indonesian air safety. In March 2007, a Garuda plane overshot a runway in Yogyakarta and crashed, killing 21 people. In June 2007, the European Union banned all Indonesian airlines in European airspace. Satar hired an American consultant and and cracked down on safety issues. In July of this year, the EU lifted the ban on certain airlines included Garuda.

The airline now plans to get into the long-haul market, starting with an Indonesia-Amsterdam route by June 2010. That will be followed by routes to Frankfurt, London, Paris, Rome and eventually in 2012, Los Angeles.

"We (Garuda) travel to Australia, Japan, Korea, China and these people still travel. And Bali is still a good attraction," Satar said.

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Filed under: Air industry • Asia


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October 12, 2009
Posted: 413 GMT

The first thing that took me by surprise about my interview with Madhu Kannan, the CEO of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) was the timing of our chat. “Can you be here by 8.25 am?” he asked. Sure, I replied and cameraman, Sanjiv, and I reached his plush office right on time.

 

It had taken around 3 months and an endless number of emails and phone calls to the BSE’s press office to confirm a date and time for our interview. It was frustrating to keep chasing them – I put it down to Indian bureaucracy and poor time management, unfortunately still typical of many large Indian companies.

“That’s one thing I am trying to change,” said Kannan when we interviewed him. “I want to start meetings on time and change the culture so no one’s late for meetings.”

It’s just one of the many, many challenges Kannan has ahead of him.

His big task: To revamp the BSE and make it relevant again.

At 37, he’s the youngest CEO of Asia’s oldest stock exchange. It’s an exchange that needs help.

While it had a virtual monopoly over stock trading in India, the entry of a rival exchange – the National Stock Exchange in the early 1990’s – changed that. The BSE now handles only a fraction of all trading done in India. To compete more efficiently, it needs to invest in better technology, says Kannan, who also has plans to make the BSE a one-stop shop for investors looking to trade across multiple platforms.

Sure, Kannan may get the BSE back on its feet. However, the real challenge for any stock exchange in India – be it the BSE or the NSE  – is to get more people to invest in stocks. Only a tiny fraction –two percent of India’s billion strong population – dabbles in the share market. Those in rural areas still prefer to invest in tangible assets like gold.

Even if Kannan is able to win back customers who’ve switched to the NSE, convincing newcomers to try their hand at trading shares, say observers, could be key to the BSE’s success. Given the robust year the Indian stock market has had, it could well attract a bunch of new investors.

Kannan has already started the process of repositioning the BSE. He’s in the process of buying a technology firm, has cut transaction fees, and – oh yes – he starts all his meetings on time.

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Filed under: Asia • Biz Clinic • India • Investment


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