March 17th, 2010
08:17 AM GMT
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On World Business Today, we often turn our attention to the BRIC nations: Brazil, Russia, India, and China to monitor, explain and sometimes marvel at their emergence on the world economic stage.  Some experts  predict that these economies could be among the four most dominant over the next thirty, to forty years, and we just might have to expand that acronym to include other emerging economies.

Let's rewind a bit here to the end of 2009.  On WBT, we reported the Dow Jones list of the best performing stock markets that year.  Sri Lanka was on-top in 2009, with stocks jumping more than 150 percent in dollar terms.  Not far behind, was Indonesia.  And stocks in Brazil more than doubled.

So, what about 2010? Check this blogspot regularly for analysis on emerging markets, as well as the BRIC nations we are keeping a close eye on, so you don't have to find it yourself.

2010 has begun with concern among some analysts that emerging market stocks are due for a correction. Some analysts have predicted a 10-15 percent drop this year as global growth slows.  However, other analysts say that with the turmoil spreading from Greece to other advanced economies, one should pay less attention to past definitions of a country's creditworthiness, and look instead at which countries have strong balance sheets and which have weak ones.  The old rules, the old assumptions, have changed.  Emerging markets in the 1990s lurched from crisis to crisis under too much leverage and too much debt.  But now, it's developed countries that seem the most stretched.

So if emerging markets are on your radar in 2010, what should you watch for?   David Spegel, head of global emerging market research with ING says, "The best performers so far this year have mostly been among the dogs of 2009."  He says that includes Venezuela, up 12.2%, Belize, up 17.9%, and Jamaica, up 31%.  "These have benefited from the perception that default risks are in decline as access to credit seems less problematic.  However, for Jamaica, heavy repayment risks remain, so we could see a reversal of fortunes there," Spegel warns.  In broader terms, Spegel says, "There remain lingering concerns that while a serious double dip may be off the table, the world may stagger into an extended period of low growth," which would hamper recovery in global financial markets.

Zeina Abdel Latif who is ING Brazil's chief economist, says the economy there is still benefiting from disciplined fiscal policy.  "The economy does not appear overheated," she says, "inflation is anchored and the increase in the current account deficit does not raise concerns, especially taking into account the attractiveness of foreign direct investments."   She says the Brazilian stock market continues to outperform over the past several months, however Abdel Latif believes that the market will not surpass its performance from last year.

Also on our watch list:  Pakistan and Ukraine with markets up 10.75% and 16.92% respectively, according to ING.



soundoff (26 Responses)
  1. Zeta1125

    This is a ridiculous statement that Venezuela is an up and coming market, its inflation is the highest seen anywhere in the region, it is suffering from a recession and the currency has recently been devaluated in comparison to the dollar, even with the devaluation the currency is still overvalued.

    March 18, 2010 at 2:29 pm |
  2. jen

    It is now more than a year since the global economic crisis erupted. This crisis affected Asia-Pacific developing countries through two main channels financial and economic. The volatility of global prices, especially those for food and fuel, has also played a role, affecting both commodity exporters and importers in the region in different ways. The looming threat of climate change and the recent experience of increased natural disasters also pose a huge threat to the Asia-Pacific region. http://electronics.wesrch.com/pdfEL1GP9E0KTNTZ

    March 18, 2010 at 6:45 pm |
  3. D-hansen

    I completely agree with you Zeta1125, Venezuela is almost broke. Not only it's one of the countries with highest risk of a default on it's debt but it's industry is close to disappearing completely. I wouldn't invest a since nickel on that country and I would advise everyone not to either.

    March 19, 2010 at 4:47 pm |
  4. lenox

    Not only does heavy repayment risk in the major factor in Jamaica, but interest rates are high.
    Also, in places where interest rates are low, such as JBDC (Jamaica Business Development Commision), they only lead to manufacturers. The problem with that is not everyone have a passion for manufacturing. what about intermediaries?
    I am still happy to see a 31% increase in market performance for Jamaica.

    March 19, 2010 at 7:02 pm |
  5. Mendana Pweka

    From the bright greens of light and the others followed ,is thes e countries running to a forbeaarabl speeds has the globe entered to a new zone of economical recovery? from money morning accessed the gold and the uranium were the most investors become aevery emphasis on ...............!

    March 20, 2010 at 6:44 am |
  6. Victor

    Venezuela, Belize, Jamaica....

    Upcoming markets. Maybe. But I think these markets are just too small.

    March 20, 2010 at 8:45 pm |
  7. Fernando Quintanal

    Venezuela´s economic base and middle class have been destroyed by derailed Chavez while his close supporters have stolen billions of dollars from the country. It is absurd to even mention Venezuela as a hot market where there is not respect for the most basic of human rights which is the right to own property.

    March 21, 2010 at 5:04 pm |
  8. lenox

    People remember that venuzuela has oil. Once you trade oil your economy can blast anytime. Jamaica trade nothing. we only import, i guess we need to change that.

    March 23, 2010 at 4:08 pm |
  9. wfa

    Venezuela an emerging market? Who the heck is going to invest in Venezuela? CNN, you've lost your marbles. I specifically studied Emerging Markets in graduate school and I would never, EVER recommend anyone invest in Venezuela.

    March 23, 2010 at 9:26 pm |
  10. Andrew White

    The reason India and China are the nations to watch because they have huge populations that are in workable age, that are highly educated, have scientific and sophisticated institutions with infrastructure and achievements that are best in the world, They have huge markets that can withstand any external pressures. Big military and big industries, wide variety of produce, very well developed financial markets, ancient culture and languages of their own. These are civilizations that were super powers for most of the five thousand years of human written history and influenced other nations. That's why any other emerging nation is incomparable.

    March 25, 2010 at 8:58 am |
  11. Irvine Mawere

    Zimbabwe is doin' well want the political upheaval is gone

    March 26, 2010 at 8:06 am |
  12. LInce

    This Report is to amateurish.Not expected from such a media like CNN.I agree with Victor.These economies are too small to be considered.Potential of a deal is too much important than how easy the deal will be.Cannot even compaired with BRIC even from a ameture point of view.Very misleading.

    March 27, 2010 at 11:26 pm |
  13. Patrick Dennison

    Venezuela is actually a very good market – and I suspect that oil prices will rise. Therefore, invest in the idea of Chavez and his state-controlled economy.

    March 28, 2010 at 4:42 am |
  14. Roman

    Have you ever been there? What was that experience like?

    April 4, 2010 at 12:38 am |
  15. Gaskell

    very creative site & really interesting posts thx 4 sharing keep up the good work waiting for whats new

    April 11, 2010 at 8:08 pm |
  16. Jonathan Mullen

    Belize? How did Belize get mentioned here? Please don't let it be because of OIL. Belize is a small country the size of New Hampshire with about 350,000 people. It's whole economy is based tourism as a result of Mayan ruins, Jungles, wildlife, and the Barrier Reef that runs the length of it's coastline. Nobody in Belize wants offshore drilling accept the few who stand to gain financially. In what universe does Belize have a right to risk the health of the reef? The country has a terrible track record of any money's being made by the government making it's way to helping the people / Country. They also have a terrible track record for doing things safely. I can point to several huge and obvious mistakes made with the Dam / would be power plant, and dredging and building roads without thought to the environment or life safety. Probably 50 times the countries gross nation product is done by outsiders as an aquifer economy that also doesn't benefit the country. Too much corruption here as a result of it's location and being a highway for contraband. There's no war on drugs here because nobody is really trying to stop it. Including the USA and Mexico. Belize could be a great place to invest if they went green, added convention centers to draw large groups, and developed their ruins. Most likely the Mayan ruins and artifacts here would blow away most of those in Mexico. Belize has a lot to learn as far as finding it's place in the Tourist destination arena. Doubtful it will happen though because cockroaches like to work in the dark. Also nobody is educated for their departments and they don't use qualified consultants. Don't get me wrong, I love belize and that's why I moved here. But Piracy is still one of the most common professions. They're just cleverly disguised as real estate agents or Ministers of government. Definitely come, dive, enjoy but don't invest in any OIl Drilling for Gods sake. Keep it simple.

    June 1, 2010 at 6:17 am |
  17. Your Blind Aunt

    gates are wide open on this baby

    June 26, 2010 at 1:12 am |
  18. John Q. Public

    I'd like to know which rock most of these people who commented here. If they'd read the article, they would have noted what David Spegel did say. That although it's something worth noting about Venezuela, Belize and Jamaica as emerging markets, he did note that there were still challenges each of these countries face. As it pertains to Belize, I'd like to know why Mr. Mullen don't back up his information with some statistics since he claims to live here. "Don't invest in the oil for God's sake?" I'd like to know what kind of advice is that for someone who claims to love Belize. As a Belizean who has lived here all my life, is very offended that these foreigners who think they know every thing about the world would make such an irresponsible comment like that. Instead of offering constructive solutions to the problems, he will stand on his soapbox and tell people not to invest. There are still many things wrong with Belize but at least there's a responsible government who's trying to do something.

    June 30, 2010 at 5:45 pm |
  19. Jeremiah Ramirez

    all businesses need market research to make sure that a product will succeed.:~;

    July 26, 2010 at 4:00 am |
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    market research is always necessary to establish supply and demand data;*;

    September 12, 2010 at 11:44 am |
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