April 27th, 2011
03:53 AM GMT
Share this on:

(CNN) – Time may be running out much faster than we thought for the United States.

In just five years, China may lay claim to the title “World’s Largest Economy”. This is not coming from China fearmongers or doomsayers – this is according to the International Monetary Fund and its new GDP forecasts.

The numbers: China’s gross domestic product will rocket $8 trillion in the next five years to $19 trillion. The U.S. GDP will grow $3.5 trillion in the same timeframe to $18.8 trillion. And it will be in that year - 2016 - that China's slice of world output will start to edge past the United States': 18% versus 17.7%. In the years after, that gap is forecast to widen.

So how can this be? And so soon? Especially after numerous prior estimates have forecast China’s #1 status to occur in the 2020s, if not 2050? Well, the IMF has based its predictions on numbers for purchasing power parity, or PPP. This gauges the strength of China's domestic consumption, which is then compared to that in the U.S. The famous Big Mac index is based on this. That operates on the notion that the iconic McDonald’s burger should cost the same in each of the more than 120 countries it’s produced. If a Big Mac costs less in another country, then that country’s currency is considered undervalued. This year, you’ll pay 40% less for a Big Mac in China than in the United States. Digest the implications of that morsel as you keep reading.

I interviewed Frederic Neumann, HSBC’s Managing Director of Asian Economics Research, here in Hong Kong. He confirmed PPP is one credible way to measure GDP, but that there are also other credible ways. Those 'other' ways, he says, show that China’s path to economic #1 is much longer than the IMF’s forecast leads us to believe.

Neumann says U.S. dollar terms are a different way to measure China growth. Using this "it would take much longer for the Chinese economy to overtake the U.S. - probably 2025," And while PPP measures domestic purchasing power, U.S. dollars are a better gauge for purchasing power on the world stage.

Per capita income is a third way to measure economic power. The CIA World Factbook estimates that China’s 2010 figure was $7,400, compared with $47,100 for the United States. With this in mind, Neumann says China might not overtake the U.S. until the 2040s or 2050s - a date more in line with past estimates.

Regardless, it is not a question of "if" but “when” China - which last year overtook Japan as the world’s second largest economy - will be the world’s biggest economy. Whenever it happens, that day will herald a new dawn for China and the end of an age for America.



soundoff (130 Responses)
  1. Sharad

    The growth is coming at an enormous cost. ......one os those is Industrial Pollution.

    April 27, 2011 at 8:36 am |
  2. shawn

    This is all speculation, and giving the fact that China has its own economic issues as well as not being honest about its economy. On top of that China’s 2010 figure was $7,400, compared with $47,100 for the United States, this article is opinion base if at best.

    April 27, 2011 at 9:00 am |
  3. Viet Do

    Well, unless some dramatic event to take place globally, China toppling the U.S. top spot is inevitable sooner or later, it's just a matter of time. The stupid Republican Foreign Policies especially under the ignorant George H. Bush and George W. Bush administrations of full engagements in the Middle East have allowed the Chinese to quietly emerge as the new superpower. China as a superpower is more dangerous than the then Soviet Union as Chinese are infamous for their tactical games rather than face-to-face confrontations. The election of George W. Bush as U.S. President in 2000 marked the beginning of an end to American Era.

    April 27, 2011 at 9:05 am |
  4. poseidonhyf

    Typical "China threat"

    April 27, 2011 at 9:23 am |
  5. DC

    This prediction is just another sign that China's economy is severely overheating and will either bust or go into crises within a few months.

    Who remembers the 200$/barrel oil predictions in 2008 just before the crash?

    April 27, 2011 at 9:29 am |
  6. yys

    fat and strong is quite different at all

    April 27, 2011 at 10:34 am |
  7. Natale

    I don't admire the way China has gotten to be in that #1 place.

    April 27, 2011 at 10:43 am |
  8. jim

    you got that right if not befor 2016

    April 27, 2011 at 10:51 am |
  9. FatCatWatch

    But overall on a per capita basis American will still rule in terms of individual over consumption for many years to come – well done! Does it really matter that there is more paper money spinning around in China than in the USA? What matters is quality of life that cannot be measured in $$$>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11833241

    April 27, 2011 at 10:59 am |
  10. luke1234

    if you look at the imf's countries by GDP (nominal) per capita list the us is 9th and china 94th it will take years for china to catch up but it doesnt but the us first

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

    April 27, 2011 at 11:04 am |
  11. cmmrc

    no way! 2016, maybe

    April 27, 2011 at 11:04 am |
  12. cmmrc

    i mean 2066

    April 27, 2011 at 11:05 am |
  13. Turtle

    finally

    April 27, 2011 at 11:05 am |
  14. Reg

    GDP-Economy and military alone are never enough to gauge a country's progress. There are so many deficiencies in China, as a country. In fact seeing the lopsidedness of China makes me think they're more likely to be a new USSR rather than anything that can replace USA.

    April 27, 2011 at 12:16 pm |
  15. Stonewall

    America built todays Chine. We gave and gave and gave and got nothing in return for our resources. America even took jobs away in the timber industry to feed China and then we buy the timber back at a larger rate. So should China thank America? should China play fair and do unto others has they did unto you? china inflates their currency and should be exempt from any monetary revues or opinions. Their human rights are shady at best so in a nut shell, China will never be American nor will they ever compete fairly against America, so basically this report is null and void in lots of Americans eyes.

    April 27, 2011 at 12:31 pm |
  16. joe

    Corporate America has accomplished what it set out to do, find slaves and bring America to its knees. Thank's to the American consumer!

    April 27, 2011 at 3:46 pm |
  17. Henk

    Haha, The US hasn`t been the largest Economy for some time now. As everyone knows the European Union is the largest Economy in the world. Even the CIA wold fact book accounts the EU as the world`s largest Economy. And it should be since the EU forms a single Economic and Political Union like any other Single Nation does. It`s only a matter of time before a single military and even closer fiscal Union is achieved. Voting for a European President will follow as we are now seeing the EU having it`s first own President in Van Rompuy.

    April 27, 2011 at 4:44 pm |
  18. Joe the Plumber

    Good, it will be nice to have another global superpower on the block.

    April 27, 2011 at 5:11 pm |
  19. jellylee2020

    The "American Age Ends at 2016"? It won't happen unless the stupid American people keep on putting GOP or Tea Baggers in power.

    April 27, 2011 at 5:22 pm |
  20. JI Zhang (Dublin)

    the quality , the quality of chinese economy, it will take another 200 years to match the US, nor maybe never catch US at all

    April 27, 2011 at 6:12 pm |
  21. Woden57

    I think this is just wishful thinking on the anti-American front

    April 27, 2011 at 6:36 pm |
  22. Jake P. Chicago, IL

    Here is America's problem and how this came to be: we outsource everything. Where to? China! We are essentially taking away wealth from our middle and lower income Americans and giving it to the Chinese. Whoops. Looks like it's finally caught up to us. Read on: http://streetlifeblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/what-just-flew-past-us-i-think-that-was.html

    April 27, 2011 at 7:22 pm |
  23. vkmo

    Yes, due to conquest of Tibet, and unfair trading worldwide. Thanks to strong contribution from mines in Tibet which have been enlarged, China has surpassed South Africa as the largest gold producer in the world today. Haiti doesn't produce any gold. The biggest burden to US economy is the gold producing Communist Red China – led by Mao's successor Hu. China is insisting on a fixed currency rate vs US dollar and other world currencies at an unfair rate of exchange. Last year -end Sept- House voted on punitive tariffs on China's goods (Senate hasn't followed thru). I feel if Mr Hu Jintao and China don't agree now to a free floating Yuan currency rate (or fair exchange rate), that tariffs and other measures should be taken to limit imports from China. It's Haiti hurt by earthquake, not mining any gold, which needs a beneficial currency rate instead of China. Rocketing gold prices have enriched China, so help Haiti not China.

    April 27, 2011 at 7:48 pm |
  24. Hello

    I weep for my country. We need a big change and its not going to happen.

    April 27, 2011 at 8:33 pm |
  25. atr

    I don't think china will be able to keep the same economic growth in the next 30 years...

    April 27, 2011 at 9:19 pm |
  26. Spartacus J. Olsson

    If this is the measure the 'American Age' is already over. According to both the IMF and the CIA Factbook the EU is the largest economy in the world with the US second, and China third. By 2016 the latest prognosis once again puts the US ahead of the EU, but as correctly stated here in the article behind China. This way or that – The US is not the largest economy in the world anymore.

    April 27, 2011 at 9:20 pm |
  27. Chinese Girl

    It is inevitable that China will surpass USA economically, militarily and technologically. It is not a question of "if" but a question of "when"

    April 28, 2011 at 12:36 am |
  28. APeasant

    As all empires rise, so must they too fall. England had sea power, America has air power, and China will have purchasing power. And so does America continue to decay, sucked dry by corporate leeches and plagued by disaster and war. Our greatest strength had developed our fatal weakness...and now we have no choice but to adapt or fall into the dust of history

    April 28, 2011 at 1:00 am |
  29. CharlieSeattle

    Don't like China's rise? To bad, China is exactly what we have allowed it to become.

    Obama and Congress can repeal China's MFN (Most Favored Nation) Trade status and bring 8 million lost jobs back to the USA anytime they wish. That was Clinton's gift to America in 1999 in exchange for laundered Chinese campaign contributions.

    Republican supporters and big business would stop that.

    Major Corporations have found that China's State Sponsorship of Capitalism is the idea market for them to be in.

    Unlike the US....
    No environmental laws.
    No child labor laws.
    No Patent enforcement.
    Blatant counterfeiting of US products.
    No Unions.
    Low wages.
    Long hours.
    No benefits.

    Lol, Even US Corporate expenses related to out sourcing American jobs are tax deductable. Its true. Google the thread and read it for yourself.

    It is really to Ironic that the very same Americans displaced by out sourcing and out of work pay the tab for those very tax deductions.

    Why?

    Bad things are supposed to happen to stupid people.

    April 28, 2011 at 1:40 am |
  30. Joe Silva

    Its sad to walk into a US store these days, any type of store, selling anything whatsoever and find that just about all goods sold there come from china and I don't mean to say that chinese goods are always low grade either b/c like like Japan, then Hong Kong, then Taiwan, Korea, etc., they're smart and eventually improve their mfg process but they have to do it mostly on the backs of Americans who are losing our mfg capability at an alarming rate! We can't all work as teachers, UPS drivers, Walmart employees etc... But we're letting the chinese take it all away from us while we still worry mostly about terrorism and such, well I for one am scared as hell that our country's economy is going down the tubes!!

    April 28, 2011 at 4:50 am |
  31. Spartacus J. Olsson

    I now see my previous point was already made before I wrote it – moderated commentary with ensuing bulk publishing of comments makes for no discourse.... very web 1.0. Thanks for waisting my time.

    April 28, 2011 at 6:20 am |
  32. PeteLMU

    I think this is total BS. Sure the economy may be booming, but that's only the government. The people are still dirt poor there. Even as the number 2 economy, the US citizens will be richer, and that's the important thing. Screw global influence, all we care about is money. Adam Smith was right all along.

    April 28, 2011 at 7:20 am |
  33. becks

    Total BS. I agree with PeteLMU...not only is China suffering from overpopulation, but their people live in severe poverty, especially those living in rural areas. Sure, they might have a good economy, but where's the innovation? What about pop culture? Most of their workers are working in factory lines similar to that of late 19th and early 20th century America. No doubt that have excelled as a country way past what we would have thought after the Cultural Revolution and Great leap forward, but just because they have a good economy doesn't mean they'll become THE superpower.
    BTW, China does not hold all of our debt. They hold less than 30%, about the same amount as Japan.

    April 28, 2011 at 9:39 am |
  34. mjw149

    The reasons for tracking who has the largest economy is to entirely to determine who is the world's hegemon. By that measure, it's just pure size internationally, so China is very close and they're pushing hard overseas for greater influence while the US argues about the deficit. The EU is too disjointed to count as a single unit globally, as the current EU monetary crisis is showing. Average income doesn't matter in that light, but the GOP is busy bringing ours down (sabotaging the economy and our safety net so we become like China), so I'm sure China won't have to wait until 2050 to pass us on that, too.

    April 28, 2011 at 1:51 pm |
  35. John Howley

    The end of an age? One metric does not make an age. What about freedom? democracy? accountability of political leaders? vigilance against corruption (both official and private sector)? diversity of race, religion, culture, thought? environmental protection? equality of opportunity? There are literally hundreds of metrics that impact quality of life and basic human fairness where China is far behind the US and shows no signs of catching up.

    John Howley
    http://www.johnhowleygreenenergy.blogspot.com

    April 28, 2011 at 6:09 pm |
  36. stockholm lake

    It's funny for me to see so many people think US is so unique, so many people think China rise because the US had allowed that, so many people keep very outdated knowledge about China.
    Does anybody has sufficient reasons for that?

    April 28, 2011 at 8:54 pm |
  37. pax

    The report is erroneous. Below are the estimates of IMF of China's GDP (current prices, Tn USD):
    2010: 5.878
    2016: 11.220
    Source: IMF WEO, April 2011
    Link: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=37&pr.y=10&sy=2009&ey=2016&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=924&s=NGDPD&grp=0&a=

    April 29, 2011 at 4:17 am |
  38. pax

    IMF's Forecast of US GDP (current prices, Tn USD):
    2010: 14.658
    2016: 18.808
    Source: IMF WEO April 2011
    Link: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=42&pr.y=6&sy=2009&ey=2016&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=111&s=NGDPD&grp=0&a=

    April 29, 2011 at 4:21 am |
  39. Hype machine

    "Purchasing Price Parity", don't believe the hype. This means that they are pretending that Chinese money is equal to the US dollar, essentially. Which is not the case.

    April 29, 2011 at 7:03 am |
  40. Harpreet

    My question is to John Howley:
    respectfully: What I understand from your comment is that the American way of life is perfect, and I question that assertion. US society is heavily policed, in terms of freedom, it is controlled, not absolute, and the concept of pre-emptive strike, is the American way. But the real situation is, that the paradigm has shifted, shifted for good, the eastern way.

    I am not averse of the Chinese, or the Americans for that matter, there has to be a balance, of the eastern and the western way of thinking, it is more or less the culture, the way we have evolved in different worlds.

    April 30, 2011 at 6:21 am |
  41. Cal

    Wont we all be dead in 2012 anyway?

    April 30, 2011 at 6:34 am |
  42. PAJ

    Both economies are well blended now, it is a symbiotic relationship by design. Half the of Chinese businesses popping up in China are American, European, or Japanese owned and operated. I'd be more worried about what the domestic counterparts think they will get away with. Moving hundreds of thousands of jobs overseas to cheap labor and importing those goods back here for a higher price. If they think they are going to do that, they may as well move to China, because their welcome here by the average person is going to be practically nonexistent. They'll continue to be vilified even if they don't think they deserve it. Americans will not become peasants. Its just a matter of time, when a proper combination of politicians gets elected and does what is truly good for all of America. This political division only benefits people who mean to take advantage of the chaos to further their agenda.

    Americans need to stop living off past accomplishments and strive for their own, let them inspire, and not make you desire. If these multinationals don't want to create jobs here, replace them, and get the economy back to the basics. The system has been rigged for quite some time already and the damage needs to be undone. Cut the credit cards up, stop buying useless products you don't really need or want, buy the basics and reward loyal businesses with your patronage. Don't be afraid to try and fail at running your own business. A well managed risk can be recovered from if it doesn't work.

    April 30, 2011 at 3:53 pm |
  43. Joe

    American greed put China on the fast track, shipped our jobs overseas, and where the Chinese were lacking, provided them the expertise. While the few superrich benefit immensely, you, joe public, have been left behind. Complicit in your own undoing, you elected the folks that made it happen. Keep voing in the same Republicans and Democrats – the Chinese wouldnt have it any other way.

    May 1, 2011 at 2:59 am |
  44. Bill-WI

    All of this "assumes" a continuation of the status quo. I'll be concerned when the Chinese commoner is as supportive of their national government and quality of life as we are in the US. If this does not occur (which I don't believe it will) the Chinese government will not be able to sustain itself over time – much like the USSR was unable to. It seems like we hear these stories every 20 years or so about this country or that country, but none of them ever seem to pan out in the long run. Having grown up in the 60s and 70s, I'd have thought by now the US would either be part of the USSR, or completely owned by Japan. It's good to remain vigilant, but these types of news stories don't keep me awake at night.

    May 1, 2011 at 12:27 pm |
  45. VY

    Do a search on keywords "china ghost cities and malls" on YouTube and you will see how China get to this World's biggest economy.

    May 2, 2011 at 3:10 am |
  46. jester

    what goes up, must come down, this is not the first age that is ending

    May 2, 2011 at 5:20 am |
  47. God-Leros

    I sure hope no-one thinks this is breaking news....

    Go CNN!

    May 2, 2011 at 5:24 am |
  48. Someone

    I hope people understand that this doesn't mean we won't still be a world superpower... I doubt that will change for a very long time. We just won't be the most economic power.

    May 2, 2011 at 9:24 pm |
  49. Kieran

    You Americans are sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ignorant and selfish. Everybody goes down eventually! There is no Kingdom or Country in the world, that has ALLWAYS been powerful and relivant as it is at some points in history. Like in the Renaissance, Italy was THE booming region and $$$$ central. Is it now?? Same with England and France. You guys had a GREAT run. America has contributed so much to the world. But please, just accept it and move on.

    BTW I'm a 14 year old boy from Canada.

    May 3, 2011 at 2:49 am |
  50. Oliver Chettle

    Articles on this topic should always mention India, but rarely do. India is only about 12 years behind China in terms of GDP oer capita, is widely forecast to start growing faster than China soon, and is in a much stronger demographic position. China will probably have the largest economy for no more than twenty years.

    May 4, 2011 at 12:37 am |
  51. Oliver Chettle

    All the denialism from the Americans in the comments on this article and elsewhere is delusional. In Victorian times people in the UK invented all sorts of spurious arguments to convince themselves that the US could never overtake the UK. All India and China need to do to overtake the US is to reach the level that Malaysia is at now, and half a dozen Asian countries have already shown that they can do much better than that, with or without democracy.

    Much as I would like to believe otherwise (and did believe otherwise in the Cold War, when I was young and naive), wealth is mainly a product of technology and education, not freedom. And the US is not doing to well at investing in technology and education.

    May 4, 2011 at 12:42 am |
  52. AnnaParis

    many of you guys talked as if you know China so well and think that you know everything that accounts for the economic growth of China. in addition, as a previous comment already stated, you assumed that it was US who ALLOWED china to come all the way to challenge her economic status.

    well, think again.

    May 4, 2011 at 11:33 am |
  53. Jonathan

    It's a simple equation. China floods our market with cheap goods, which we buy up because we love to "Save Money," and "Live Better". That means that a lot of our money goes over there. However, when it comes to letting our goods into their country (and consequently their money out), the flood becomes a leaky faucet – just enough to keep certain big-wigs happy enough not to do anything about it. So you have lots of money going out, little money coming back.

    May 5, 2011 at 12:40 am |
  54. Jim

    Anyone that uses growth numbers from the past few years for extrapolating China's continued growth past five years is going to have results that are much higher that what will come to pass. China's long-held policies of only allowing one child have hurt their population more than I think anyone guesses. Too many males in the current generation, not enough females to sustain another generation anywhere close to the current size. Many Chinese men are leaving China in search of wives. Be prepared for the Chinese population to take a nosedive by 2020.

    May 5, 2011 at 1:33 am |
  55. Jean-Luc

    It seems that China's economy is irrevocably linked to the U.S. economy. So things will eventually start to balance out. If the cost of living goes up in china they won't be able to pay their workers dirt anymore and it won't be so cheap to outsource there. China's economy is getting strong just like how the U.S. economy got so strong, slave labour, more or less. Everything will even out in the end.

    May 5, 2011 at 2:28 pm |
  56. Jan

    Can't wait for that to happen.Arrogant USA had its way for too long.World is desperate to have balanced power else USA will carryon doing silly things and mess whole world..

    May 5, 2011 at 5:22 pm |
  57. Hi

    Actually, I donot think China will be over US at all the reasons are – magority of the people are still quite poor, as you can see they just good to give cheap labour (hence many oversea companies go there to take the advantage of their cheap labours i.e. why most things are made in China ) when you see the rich Chinese who can afford to buy expensive things are majority civil service workers , they donot have any state benefits, no free schools,so on. I really think China will never never over US may be they are not in debt but they have a lot of other things to develop even some Chinese who said that they are still in the third world country status..

    May 5, 2011 at 10:29 pm |
  58. ThatsNotTrue:[

    Too much denial within the masses.....see this is what happens when you spend all of your money on wars, and own trillions to others. The difference between the Chinese and American government right now? The latter's ego's too big. The difference between Chinese and America on the world stage, the first, produces and consumes, the latter's a gluttony of resources of the world. The difference between the people.....ummm manners? UCLA girl and christian girl rant on tsunami. The difference between them, army wise....well, US is in 3 or 4 wars.....that aren't stopping anytime soon, nothing much going on in China.
    &&& For the people that think the wealth of China is dependent on the US.......ummmm...we lived in a globalized world, the US is one of many China's markets, and people want to get into China's market..........the US never makes anything.....so......we're not buying anything from you, we don't own you anything, you own us (1- 2 trillion dollars in national debt)...................so how does that work, and you don't buy the most of what we make, we do remember biggest producer and market? Other than India......never seen anything made in India in Canada though...So wake up, grease up and try to sell some random country your products.....which hopefully won't be war related......since you know, they can kill you so they won't have to pay you.
    IGNORANCE AND GREED IS THE DEATH OF ANY EMPIRE..........So don't be surprised, I'm sure some people here can't find China or any other countries they didn't bomb yet on a world map ( I'm not the first one to say this, an American camedian said it first). And how true. The blind leading the blind.....in action........so before you go anti China and all, learn about the history first, we were the world's super power around 3000 years ago, Tang dynasty, &&& it looks like it MAY happen again.
    &&& For the people that are saying most of China's poor, some random person came up with 90% at least the government is doing things to help them, you're government is making the poor poorer. And even if it's only 10%.......That's probabily more people in north amerca combined.....and at least the government is doing various things, like this year's objective, to educate more students.......while in the US........to start more wars, and oh, keep the public ignorant by cutting down their education budget.
    You cn't compare them unless you've been there, I've been to China and am close enough to the US, Canada.....and though american media....this is the resut, and I've been to rural China before.....well not on a farm but not in the city....not sure wha it's called......and it looked like a city......so hey at least we're bettering our lives........while some people in America only complains...while their government is taking away their lively hood, what's good for the east is different from wha's good for the west......so stop it with the double standard when well......the media and government are failing the gerneral masses.

    May 6, 2011 at 12:01 am |
  59. Hello

    China may overtake the US in the future yes.......India might also catch up,,,as both countries are growing at a steady pace. The future however depends on what the US does to keep itself on the top. What the US needs is a stable economic ally in Asia who is compatible with it (for God's sake not Pakistan.....this ally is a drain on the US economy.) This may help counter China's influence.

    May 6, 2011 at 8:44 pm |
  60. manv

    hi... i think you people forgot India.

    May 7, 2011 at 7:29 am |
  61. Joshua

    I think we need a new country to rule asia, many peoples think China have large population who is earning very little amount of money compare to US, but the truth is China is a country with characteristics of of developed country, and developing country!! unlike US China have the biggest challenge of "Over population", so i don't think its healthy to compare China and US!! we all knew how long it took US to become super power. there are many people mention about "ghost cities" in China, of cause there are some, but the truth is most of the building owned by one person, and Chinese property market it very different from any other part of the world, because 70% Chinese consumers use liquid (Cash) for purchasing, so this is also a reason why there are empty cities in China.

    IT IS VERY IMPORTENT AND HEALTHY FOR THE WHOLE WORLD TO HAVE ANOTHER SUPER POWER OR HEATHY ECONMY, TODAY WE ALL DEPENT ON EACH OTHER TO LIVE. I DON'T THINK ITS IMPORTENT TO COMPARE WHO IS THE 1ST. THE MOST IMPORTENT IS HOW WE ARE GOING TO ADOPT TO THE CHANGING WORLD!!!

    May 7, 2011 at 2:27 pm |
  62. Jay

    I am from Taiwan and I have been to China 60 times and stayed there for over 1000 days in the past 10 years. My observation is:
    In the past 10 years, Shanghai's apartment price has soared 10 times higher. It is even higher than that in Chicago. Can you believe that? And that price soaring all contributes to the GDP leaps. Now the Beijing's total house value can buy off all the country of US, and that all contributes to the great GDP leaps. Does GDP really mean anything? If dog shit can be eaten and sold in China, that would also contribute to GDP increase.

    When the local provincial government hands in its GDP report, the central Beijing goverment would cut it by 40% because it always seems absurdly high. Most of the Chinese people say:
    "The China GDP, if you would cut it by 50%, there still would be air in it."

    May 8, 2011 at 7:19 pm |
  63. Hi

    The gap(s) of the rich and poor is the major thing to deal with not China!!!

    As the Rich Businessmen still go to get cheap labours in China and make a huge wealth for themselves the Chinese people only get a tiny wage for long hours tedious work the world people get cheap products (comparing the same goods before cheap labours) but the Rich companies keep making lots of money out of the cheap labours So we must demand the change NO MORE BIGGER GAP BETWEEN THE RICH AND POOR it will only make them even richer...

    May 8, 2011 at 10:58 pm |
  64. Don McLaughlin

    Hmmmm.... so much for American exceptionalism...

    May 9, 2011 at 4:31 am |
  65. Don McLaughlin

    Actually, we have nothing to worry about... the world ends next year... :-)

    May 9, 2011 at 4:34 am |
  66. David

    Personally, I don't care if China overtakes the US economically. They will never overtake the US "spirit of
    giving." The Chinese government does not value human life. For example, where the heck was China when the Japan crisis hit? Where was China when the Haiti disaster struck? Where was China's billions anywhere to be seen when there has been any kind of humanitarian catastrophe anywhere in the world?? And, while were discussing it, where was Putin's Russia and all its billions of cash? Have you noticed that these countries are rarely if ever heard from when it comes to helping others in need? It's always the USA, France, Britain, etc.

    May 9, 2011 at 5:13 pm |
  67. duh

    I wonder? I occasionally read these' discussions and wonder about the literacy of the contributers.Obviously some of you need some more spelling lessons or slow down on your wpm. To get back to the topic, I am way underemployed with no end in sight, at least I have a job!

    May 9, 2011 at 11:51 pm |
  68. Ami

    @cmmrc,
    Really? No, i would disagree with the 2066 but yes not 2016, that's just too early I mean look, the US is way higher than China so it would take at least like a century since first it takes forever to get there and second, the US is defending the fact that China would, besides, even if China, did, the US surely will get it back.

    May 10, 2011 at 1:12 am |
  69. ThatsNotTrue:[

    Personally, I don't care if China overtakes the US economically. They will never overtake the US "spirit of
    giving." The Chinese government does not value human life. For example, where the heck was China when the Japan crisis hit? Where was China when the Haiti disaster struck? Where was China's billions anywhere to be seen when there has been any kind of humanitarian catastrophe anywhere in the world?? And, while were discussing it, where was Putin's Russia and all its billions of cash? Have you noticed that these countries are rarely if ever heard from when it comes to helping others in need? It's always the USA, France, Britain, etc.

    That's not true actually, the Chinese government donated hundreds of millions dollars in supplies and money to Japan...while the US did nothing.....except created more panic, and a few "experts", duh, of course they're not going to report here!!! Where did you even get that China never donated to Haiti? If you haven't noticed, the US governement only does something when it benfits them or make them look good. So David....how can you generalize like this.....if you haven't notice, "the spirit of giving" is not a US trait, IT'S A HUMAN ONE!!!!! In fact the government if you were updated takes more from other counties and it's citizens than it gives back. And if you want to get into human rights issue.....who have the most jails in the world, America!!!! Who owns Gratanimo Bay(not sure how to spell it), America!!! Who's in 3-4 wars which are killing thounsands of innocent women and children, America!!! So in conclusion, the US government should mind their own business before pointing fingers.....because right now the world view of them are ignorant, uneducated slobs....which is true for the government....but the people, well....David, you're an example, like the 14 year old canadian boy's view. And the US in recent years......started this resession for the world remember, and they never do anything unless it benefits them, and they don't mind stabbing people in the back.....that's not helping. Remember 14 trillion debt, all that money they donated, shhhhhh don't tell anyone, that was other people's money. Although all government, no matter what form have corruption, the US government is shameless in pointing out other people's flaws while they have the same problems but ten times that. &&& The worker's rights issues should solely be blamed on the corporation who wants to make more money....even with the laws, they can find ways around it, so don't blame the communist government for everything, that just shows that the "red scare" of the 1950s is still blinding some people from facts.
    &&& The USA, Britain and France....the european countries does not aways help other, just look up the eruopean powers attacking China, they stricked China at one of the weakest moments in 5000 years. Not only ruining the country, killing people, even taking national artifacts, 8 countries attacking 1, look in your museums, how many are from China? Now when China's gaining power, they complain....read an article the other day on England complaining on not being able to get into China's market because"the government is making it too hard" when they shouldn've done their homework and learn about the culture and traditions first.
    &&& Before you say another country doesn't vaue human life then once again I ask you, WHY THE HECK IS THE US IN SOOO MANY WARS??????????????????? DO YOU THINK WAR SAVES PEOPLE???????????????????????
    ..................................What does this have to do with this article...no where does it relate to donations to disastered countries and all that......nor human right..........so yeah.

    May 10, 2011 at 1:37 am |
  70. Crayan

    responding to David: "It's always the USA, France, Britain, etc" because you only see a distorted world from distorted media reports corresponding to your world, which is not a phenomenon specific to your country. So you may need to learn more languages and look beyond cnn, bbc, times, etc, to gain a more comprehensive view.
    FYI, I'm a Chinese, I can tell you guys that it's true most Chinese think we are still in third world status, and we do be in thirld world status, no need to deny it. Only when a nation know its deficiency, can it tackles it and improve. Superpower status surely is something can be felt proud of, yet not a reason to be arrogant and complacent for.

    May 10, 2011 at 6:24 am |
  71. Pete Wolfe

    Dear fourteen year old cannadia,

    Remember that the U.S is Canada's largest trading partner. Also, what happens here will happen in Canda quite affectively cause of yourbiggest trading partner. Be careful not to give up on the U.S yet cause I don' think we are going to just give up like a bunch ofcowards. For example, I've had three business in my immediate family and had an uncle who was a millionaire. We aren't all selfish nor ignorant eithe as I can attest that history is bunk underHenry Ford or wha the history might not repeat itself if we learn from it.

    I tink tese diar pedictios are at best guesses if you ask me. Theh20 in China is slowly depleting as well. The ecosystem is being pounded by the over populated mai land of China. The eastern migration away from the deserted over farmed lands will pose a huge problem within only two decades in China. You can use the oceans for ony solong before you throw the whole ecosyste into default. So, China has serious problems in Tibet, and th ROC in the years to come even Japan, South Korea, ad other regional powers will eventually come to th light of reason to join together wih the U.S on issues beofre its too late.

    Finally, China is a dependant nation on the goods and services tha othes allow it to have fo th time being. They themselves have a dated economic system oher thnthie high speed rail and other infrastructure projects they aren't that inpressive. Asian education in particular China isn't geared to creative thinking just mmicing memorized mathematics or natural sciences. YOu need a society with inventive ferver with freedom o expression, religion and wayof life. This is not happening in Chia. Believe me I made an A in Intro to Comparative Politics under a U.S military professor with the studis of packaetsfrom famous scholars internaitonaly and the Economist magazine. the U.S isn't over by a long shot!

    May 10, 2011 at 7:41 am |
  72. FesterNscab

    Time to like fish eyes and rice.

    May 10, 2011 at 9:19 am |
  73. FesterNscab

    All you fools who are US haters, well, China has a new way of life for everybody, including you. Don't think you are going to fare any better, you won't. You WILL go down with us, that is a truth you cannot deny and ignore.

    May 10, 2011 at 9:22 am |
  74. ANGEL

    We better start teaching are kids Chinese!!

    May 10, 2011 at 7:04 pm |
  75. PaulD

    Reading the US-hater posts on this thread makes me laugh hysterically. I include all you liberal fatalists who opine that "it's inevitable...so just deal with it...it's about time we had a change from the bad 'ol United States."

    When China takes over, you will all bemoan the good old days when you had the US to kick around – when you weren't all being kicked in the a**es every day by the yellow borg. Do you honestly believe that an obnoxiously ethno-centric, ultranationalist, aggressively belligerant and communist driven culture such as China's will be so much better when it is finally the dominant world economy and there is no effective US counterbalance?

    I for one am looking forward to the day when I can hear the liberal haters in this world bitterly whine over "how the Chinese don't seem to care about the rule of law when it comes to trade or human rights (unlike the US); that "the Chinese could care less about forming coalitions of willing nations in situations of military conflict...they just role over countries that disagree with them; that the Chinese refuse to intercede in any humanitarian crises if there is no economic benefit to be had; that the Chinese are doing everything they can to marginalize Western societies and democratic principles, that the Chinese don't have any apparent social concious and are raping all countries of their natural resources and squashing any opposition, that there is no country out there now that can stop them, etc." And not many of these liberal haters will have the guts to speak up in protest.

    I think the US will finally get the respect we have so richly deserved from all the pygmie countries of the UN that love to take pot shots at us – but it will be too late by then. The French will cry out in angiush when the Champs Elysees is renamed Shao Lin Boulevard...ha, ha, ha, ha.

    May 10, 2011 at 8:31 pm |
  76. Joe

    Uh, China has five times the people that America has and can use those people for dirt cheep labor... Why is it surprising that their GDP is going to be higher than ours?

    May 10, 2011 at 8:51 pm |
  77. Joe

    As soon as robotics technology gets going full force, the world won't need China's dirt cheep labor... Not that it will help the job market at all.

    May 10, 2011 at 8:55 pm |
  78. Brian

    I don't see why so many worry about the numbers involved in who is largest... it seems mostly based around ego and ignorant of the reality of the situation. First of all, China has 4x or 5x as many people as the USA. It's obvious they have more potential output power just due to that fact alone. Secondly, remember that this growth of China is in many ways a stunning success of Capitalism and Globalization. Hundreds of millions – approaching a billion – people have been pulled out of 3rd world poverty toward a 1st world standard of living.

    Will we have to be vigiliant to stay competitive with China? Yes. But it's no reason to look down in shame when it's your systems of doing business that allowed a huge nation of people to improve themselfs out of great levels of poverty.

    May 10, 2011 at 11:27 pm |
  79. Css228

    These estimates are made with the assumption that Chinese economic growth won't slow. This is stupidity at best. Furthermore, China is highly unlikely to be a politically stable entity for the next 50 years. When the tensions that exist in China finally do come to the surface, expect a massive flight of capital, along with more dissent being openly voiced, leading to more capital flight. Their system has sewn the seeds of their own downfall

    May 11, 2011 at 7:47 am |
  80. Jean Louis

    I have been living in China for the past 5 years, I also speak and read Chinese. I have to tell you, all of these so called "experts" on China are talking for the sake of talking. They have no idea what China is all about.

    They look at China strictly by the numbers, they don't really know how much water there are in these numbers. Be honest, even the Chinese government themselves don't know what is the actual margin of error on their numbers.

    Every year around the end of the year, my bank service manager come ask me to deposit money into their bank for 1 or 2 months, and they will offer me a 8% annual interest in return. You know why? Because all of the companies will come to banks to borrow a short term loan to show on their books to show growth or revenue, when the auditors/government review are done at the end of the year, they will return the money. This is a common practice here.

    This is how is works here, so does this "No 1" would mean anything?

    May 11, 2011 at 10:59 am |
  81. Fred

    Eh, it doesn't matter. I love America, it's my land, it's your land, but the people running it are destroying it and I'm happy to say that I hope to be at least semi-self-sufficient by 2016 and it won't really matter what the .gov is doing. Good for China for growing their economy, but I do agree that the cost is high in people and waste. I guess everybody forgot that this is a communist regime we're talking about. They arrest people for religious activities, etc. But hey, I got my iPad2 so it's cool (and I'm not accusing, I do have my iPad2, etc.)

    May 11, 2011 at 5:07 pm |
  82. Garrick Greathouse

    Also consider that a nation doesn't need to be the worlds largest economic superpower to be prosperous. People live very happy, healthy, and modern lives in the UK, Germany, Finland South Korea, and Canada without being the largest economic super power.

    May 11, 2011 at 9:04 pm |
  83. Schweinsteiger

    What? American age to end? I have never thought of it. What a stupid idea.
    China is world largest stupid pig. This pig is fed by a speical medicine and becomes fat. But there is no muscle. A pig, stupid pig.

    May 11, 2011 at 10:01 pm |
  84. ThatsNotTrue:[

    Well.....some people's post's here are more reasonable, like the one above me.....while there are PaulD and Pete Wolfe who fail to see the bigger picture. As every human being on this planet know, what comes up must come down, gravity also known as sine or cosine function and the likes. The US is a very young country, history wise compared to any other European or Asian countries. It had it's turn but now it's time for the parents or teenagers to take back the control, depending on who takes over it, EU, India or China.
    &&& As for PaulD's comment on Chinese people not having social consious, two questions.
    Why is the US involved in so many morally corrupted wars?
    If they didn't have social consious then why are they trying to reduce green house gas while the US with Bush bailed out on Kyoto?
    & As for respect, well the US HAD respect until they started random wars for oil and tried to enforce their ideals on everyone.
    &&& To Pete Wolf.......spell check first of all, and my point previously, and China doesn't copy everything, if you been there you see things that aren't even happening in North America.
    & You getting an A in class does not really suggest anything, other then the size of you're ego, and in recent years freedom of expression, religon and way of life is either being surpressed or there's too much (Jersy Shore). Since recent news articles suggest that security overpowers freedom....which is what is happening in America.
    & True there is a lot more memorization in Chinese education, but hey here's the truth "China have more honour students than America have students." This is a quote from someone who commented on this issue on an article, there is creativity since if you haven't notice that Asian students adapt, we don't demand an A or whatever......and you're really off topic...................which shows you're true intelligence.
    &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& So in the end learn your facts, and everything have an end, especially when said country's politics went doen the drains (ex. Trump). It doesn't matter who takes over but in the end ANOTHER COUNTRY IS GOING TO TAKE OVER THE 1st PLACE, even with the numbers watered, which country doesn't do that? Just look at how fast the American government is printing bills to lower their debt.

    May 11, 2011 at 10:14 pm |
  85. alternates

    well, as far as i know. china is presenting false statistics and reports on all levels.
    chinese economy is mostly labor intensive. which means they can't compete america in quality and technology.
    as far as china cross over japan is much much different than crossing american economy.
    america is geographically bigger than china with less population and bigger natural resources control at home and oversee won't be easy for china to cross.
    any ways lets see what is happening after all this world is pron to changes and nothing can remain in the same status for ever.

    May 12, 2011 at 9:59 am |
  86. Paul

    Does this really matter? Is being a so called "superpower" really important or just fancy names given to countries with??? A superpower in my vocabulary would be the one with a military that could take over the world in a matter of days. Economically I really do not see the point of this fact. If it's true that the per capita income is so low compared to the USA's does anyone ever think how much more expensive it is to live in the US, especially New York City and surrounding areas? $47,000 is what a single male needs to pay for a mortgage, car payment, car insurance, homeowners insurance(if it is not built into the mortgage) and general expenses such as gas and food. Is gasoline in China equivalent to $4.50 American?? I highly doubt that.

    May 12, 2011 at 11:31 am |
  87. CD

    Doesn't all of this rest on assumptions about continued political stability in China? And as China becomes more confident about flexing its global muscle, it will learn – slowly, perhaps, and certainly reluctantly – that global power is a complicated business, with competing priorities and responsibilities.
    As for America's decline, I'm often reminded of Mark Twain's quip: "The report of my death is greatly exaggerated."

    May 12, 2011 at 12:00 pm |
  88. tipper

    Welcome to the armagedon that the doomsayers are talking about nostradamus spoke of this there will be no physical armagedon just the fall of america.Christians and doomsayers dnt try to cash in on the world ending just america economy will fold and not be as powerful as they use to be.Look around america sold off there blue prints to the most powerful weapons on earth thinking that people was they friends only to be a bully that is now being stuffed into his/her own locker.Again I stress the climate mother earth will sort her self out like she has done billions of years.The things is we have restricted her and now she wanted to be unrestricted things must go back to the way they was for her to be happy.So nuclear industry will eventually fold renewable resource would rise.

    May 12, 2011 at 5:35 pm |
  89. Gauss

    Maybe, China can be the largest Economy.Is it important?

    May 14, 2011 at 7:25 pm |
  90. Bow Woof Woof

    I believe China's "true world power" impact will be limited in the future because most of the countries in the world (Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, US) do not place a lot of trust in China's leadership, or in anything about China, period. China wants to do business on China's terms and will not budge on the terms. It is very hard to make more money than China is making in business deals. China's IMF voting power is a paltry number less than 3 %, whereas other countries are given a much large slice of the pie. China kills more people yearly than the WHOLE WORLD COMBINED in capital punishment while some people merely disappear never to be heard from again. The business environment is very inhospitable for foreign business, while China maintains that foreign businesses do not "try hard enough to compete" (see Walmart example). Besides the poisoned baby milk, lead toys and other national disasters, there is also
    counterfeit beef made from pork that may give you early cancer and pigs that feed on thrash dumps. China relocates thousands of people and poisons thousands others with products and factories every year. China is incapable of leading because it is like a king without a crown.

    Where it might lead though will be with economics, though not the good kind. China often excels at business tactics and purchasing power, though it scores low at business ethics, consumer opinions, market availability, etc... This however depends on china trying to control its inflation. Already other countries like Indonesia and the Philipines have lower cost of labor. So China is stuck in a dilemma, grow and improve and the cost of labor will drive profits down. Stay at the current standard of living and the country will be unable to lead/grow. So economic supremacy depends on where the US and the rest of the world chooses to make their socks an shoes.

    Other things which will prevent China from leading: education, government differences, and Chinese girls marrying out. Education is substandard and corrupt, with rich parents buying anything from heaters to the front seat in class. English teachers are paid J*** S*** 600 USD/month. That's 2 monthly car payments in the US. Communism is well... communism, like the communism found in North Korea. Chinese girls are increasingly intermarrying with foreigners, whereas Chinese men often have difficulty finding a bride. This will dillute the true Chinese population as well as contribute to the gender imbalance problem.

    Where China might make an impact will be in the personal and family economics area. Chinese culture emphasizes super-saving and frugality, respect for elders and Confucian values. Everyone, from the poor to the rich, saves as much money as they possibly can. I knew a girl in Taiwan who who made 1300 USD a month (average salary) and saved 1000 USD by using a scooter, living with her parents, buying clothes from discount stores, etc...That's a 75 % saving rate. It would be impossible to save that much on any salary in the US. China, even though its people seem very poor by comparison, is a very rich country. Cars are bought in cash, money is saved at a rate that will never be possible in the US (where most people can't even), elders are being taken care of by children (avoiding costly medicare, etc...). China may one day be able to buy the world if it wants to. This is a grim idea for many countries who are weary of doing business with China, which by the way has a lot of economic leverage and options because of its huge size.

    May 16, 2011 at 7:16 am |
  91. Goten

    Tssss.... boo-hoo! All this complaining and fear of the yellow peril is only because you guys have sh!t on your own backs. You know you attacked China in the past, so now you're afraid that China is holding a grudge and will use its new found power for revenge. If you hadn't been such a b@st@rd in the past, then maybe you would have no need to be afraid now.
    I say that all is fair in love, war and economics. Let it grow, let it grow, let it grow!

    May 16, 2011 at 9:13 am |
  92. kruglik

    The newspaper Knowledge-power 420. Internal Предиктор the USSR.
    D.S.Halidov.
    THREE LEVELS of the ANALYSIS And the STRATEGIC FORECAST. The scenario хаотизации huge region from Suez and to China, from Caspian sea and to Black sea can be considered in different foreshortenings that will allow us to allocate some the latent layers.
    AT the FIRST LEVEL tactical level of solved problems is obvious. Here it is a question actually of TESTING of OBJECT of "blow" and provocation to define and predict: the object of provocation in aspiration to protect the relics and values is how much far ready to "come". Depending on object reaction, the scenario can be corrected according to expected reaction and achievement of the necessary result. So was and with promotion of a theme "Tibet" in a current of several months, and with "the Iranian file", and with the Antipakistan information after acts of terrorism in Мубае, and, at last, with begun military operation of Israel in Gaza Strip.
    At this level of the analysis it is impossible to tell, that Georgia or Israel with India are used "blindly" as ruling elite of these countries quite meaningly pursues strategic and tactical targets. But objectively they are included in global chess "game" with the big rates and with possible strategic losses for the people and the countries. For all looks as the co-ordinated scenario where India have put before the fact bloody, with mass victims, act of terrorism, when there is no special problems with identification of the enemy, and Tbilisi have encouraged on an impudent step, having taken advantage of strategic short-sightedness and impatience. Somalias as not taken place state, prepare for delivery on favour of armies of the international coalition (obviously, under the aegis of USA of-NATO) for inability to cope with gangsterism and a piracy.
    Our comment: delivery has already occurred in the form of country division in two. All Also has managed even without in water of armies.
    Cossack Goodwin –
    The truth from the world community carefully hide, that throughout 10-15 years global forces persistently and purposefully destabilised Somalia, encouraging Ethiopia on aggression and arming separatists. Only Israel presumes to be to itself simultaneously субьектом and object of a global and regional policy, when mutual dependence (an influential lobby in the USA and the Israeli elite) causes close cooperation and coordination in political strategy.
    AT the SECOND LEVEL of the analysis the unevident layer of all loud events of world history of last year reveals. With reference to Russia is a resuscitation of an image of "empire of evil" after 5 day wars on caucasus and the next coil of Antirussian company in the western mass-media. On индийско 0 Pakistan and Afghani "sites" – blow under infrastructural projects (gas pipelines and transport communications). Which should connect Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and China, and also as a whole blow on ШОС-6 and to China. Communication МИ-6 of the Great Britain with terrorist groups in Pakistan is opened. For section of Pakistan as incapable to master the Islamic movements and пуштунскими tribes, and introduction there forces of NATO (and the USA) with approach "soil" prepares for borders of China.
    The further development of this scenario, at its successful realisation, inevitably should come to the end with destabilization Chinese (Muslim) Синьцзян – the Uigur province of Tibet.
    Continuation follows.
    Our comment: stated all above has been written not yesterday, but proceeding from last events in the Near east, it is possible to draw a conclusion, that tests are already finished also the mechanism of realisation of global plans of the World government is already started. We think, that to China to relax it is not necessary. How much Russian union from NATO by consideration of islands as basing of the guarantor of the world in the Far East for obstinate Samurais is favourable – "than детя would not play if only did not cry" the Question only remains opened who will be that knickknack for a consolation....?
    The representative Internal Предиктора the USSR across the North Caucasus
    http://kruglikkont.blogspot.com

    Cossack Goodwin.
    Cossack Mamaj.
    http://kruglikkont.blogspot.com

    May 16, 2011 at 10:38 am |
  93. ThatsNotTrue:[

    What century is Bow Woof Woof stuck in?
    Times have changed, and the US reputation on the world stage have gone down the drain because of the mutiple wars, and even the locals knows that there are more problems within their own government.
    Dear Bow Woof Woof, as your name suggests, you are a puppy or dog? to the propaganda that you seen on TV which most people know by now rarely tells the truth. The education in China easily surpasses the US because of the motivation and the cultural focus on education, whereas the US is only throwing money at the problem.
    &&& Sorry to break it to you...but the US "is the king without a crown" because your government thinks it's the boss of the world when now much of the world hates it.
    & What does IMF have to do with anything? Isn't it a European or north American bank that's bankrupting the poorest countries....then it's a good thing China have so little say then.
    & As for the Chinese race being dilluted due to gender imbalance and girls marrying foreigners..................ummmmm our race survived for 5000 years, there is no true "American" race unless you count the native Americans.......and why's this even in your argument, this have nothing to do with this article, we live in a muti cultural world so there's nothing wrong with it, you just sound racist.
    &&& NEWSFLASH, A LOT OF COUNTRIES WANT TO DO BUSINESS WITH CHINA, So with relationships building between China and other countries while the US is buring bridges......at least in the middle east. What's the problem of China leading?
    SOMEONE NEEDS TO PULL THE WORLD OUT OF THE RECESSION THAT THE US PULLED THE WORLD INTO, DON'T THEY?

    May 17, 2011 at 12:33 am |
  94. Yi Soon Law

    The notion that China will be the next super power after USA is impossible. It will never happen, and never will it last.
    Made no mistake, I am a Malaysian Chinese, I am happy that China is No.2 in the world, and I'm not an American citizen. But, China is technologically, militarily, politically and culturally far off America, and it is even safe to say that, they will never challenge US authority for the next decade. How long have China been strong? 20 years? How long have America build its technology, politics, military and education? 150 years? Yes, it takes that long to propel USA into a super power right after the European imperialist fell in 1950's. Today till even till 30 years later, USA will be even stronger.

    May 17, 2011 at 9:25 am |
  95. LEO

    No need to compare GDP of two countris,That China overtakes America in GDP is inevitable but a matter of time.But that doesnt make any sense.China has a population of 1.4 trallian,four times of that of America.so the average capita income
    will never overtake that of America.that is the problem

    May 18, 2011 at 7:57 am |
  96. Quo Xi

    Thank god.

    May 18, 2011 at 4:47 pm |
  97. MAC

    Let's use a simple example:
    I grew up on a farm. We occasionally used a hand held leather puch to modify collars, bridles, etc...
    It never failed. The punch was US made and purchased before I was born. It saw extremely heavy usage, somtimes with a 2lb slege being beat on the handle to force the puch through particularly thick or tough leather. It never failed.
    I recently needed one for a dog collar and bought one at Tractor Supply. It was chinese made.
    I tried to puch a hole through my dogs collar and using two hands; I collapsed it!
    Just as their leather puch collapsed so too will their economy.
    Why? They are even greedier than we are. That is evident in the products that they manufacture and their lack of good engineering, quality control, etc.
    And, greed will lead to their downfall...

    May 18, 2011 at 6:31 pm |
  98. tactstl

    Is this estimate taking into account 'per capita'? China has 4 times or more the population of the US. So while their cumulative purchasing power may actually take over the US... they have 4 times the amount of domestic consumers. Not to mention much of the growth of China is due to the fact they augment abnormally low prices due to low wages even further by manipulating their currency conversion ratio. As China's GDP grows, so will the demand for increased wages by its vastly underpaid manufacturing workers. I see an increase in workers right similar to the US unions, with one example being perhaps the swelling of the Auto union in the 1950s in major auto-manufacturing states. With this increase in wages, comes an increase in price, along with the homeostasis and re-balancing of what was a frankly artificial competitive edge that China has utilized for the last 30 years, something all together unsustainable. Perhaps even more realistic is a gigantic bubble of epic proportions in China, similar to the Great Depression experienced in the US if not the Great Recession of recent past.

    Lets look behind the numbers, and quit focusing simply on GDP. Lets get some context CNN and economists.

    May 19, 2011 at 12:17 am |
  99. Babushka

    It will and should herald a new era of political state management. More and more countries will adapt the Chinese model (benevolent dictatorship) vs. the Western model of democracy. It'll be tough sell for democracy – which India had since 1947 and it's still a Third World country, in spite of the IT revolution which is a drop in the bucket, even for India's economy.

    I have every bit of confidence that once China reaches the status it's projected to reach, it will abandon its Communism. The reason so many politicians in so many hang on to power is that those jobs/profession offers the max money. I have great respect for the Chinese. They have been exporting their products for the last 5000 years and they're just regaining their rightful position.

    Thanks,

    BTW, I'm from India.

    May 19, 2011 at 6:46 pm |
  100. Ben

    @Babushka Pretty funny that you call them a "benevolent" dictatorship. Ever live there? I have....and I can tell you they are anything but benevolent.

    As for the article....big deal that a country with three times the population finally catches up to the US.

    May 19, 2011 at 11:25 pm |
  101. Aha

    I think it's about time really we just have to accept it and beg them to help us get out of this financial dump-hole, and I don't mean money but actually send some brains over please!!

    May 20, 2011 at 7:21 am |
  102. Ravi Soni

    YOU for got India.........India is the one which can overtake china by 2030... I think India should be mentioned here if there is something being mentioned about Worlds largest economies...

    May 20, 2011 at 8:11 am |
  103. Wade Bailey

    Not only will the Chinese economy superceede America, China will emerge as the # global superpower. That time is not 20 years from now, that time is here. Denying that China will surpass America as a global superpower wont change the fact that it has allready been put into motion aided by the Americans.

    May 22, 2011 at 1:48 pm |
  104. skeptic

    China can have the world's largest economy, but if most Chinese would rather be living in the U.S.A. than in China, China's governance is still a world class failure.

    May 23, 2011 at 3:23 am |
  105. GEORGE ARGIRIOU

    WHAT GOOD IS IT 2 B THE WORLDS STRONGEST ECONOMY WHEN THE CHINISE PEOPLE LIVE WORKING LONG HOURS AND BEING PAYED LITTLE MONEY AND THEIR FREEDOM PRIVILAGES R VERY LIMITED.

    May 25, 2011 at 1:13 pm |
  106. DEEJ

    There is something like 1.3 billlion people in China. The US has something like 330 million. Of course China should be the worlds biggest economy.

    May 26, 2011 at 4:41 am |
  107. qiaketu

    In our country the past 30 years is really earth-shaking changes I was a boy 81 years our generation than their parents do not know how many times the day. Even the poorest of our small Southern village has several vehicles, all my peers. Change really is everywhere. You had better know, we parents have enough to eat those years, when eating is a big problem. So the Chinese people we met said: have you eaten yet. Become a mantra. Grandma used to say:
    Now days I did not expect, thanks to the Government, to thank the Chinese Communist Party. You Americans think of it, although some government corruption, corruption, but actually things are dry. China is now one of a kind, a few months is a big change. China is really making a big change in Earth's history. I am a rural to the people, in Wuxi, the city also have a car, a house, a wife. I am also a little of the Culture Company: Wuxi A Xiwen of media company. We also have a website: http://www.wxaxi.com. My number is 13328107226 (China). I am an ordinary citizen, I thank the Government really does have the ability to put such a big country, so many people's well-organized operation. We are a long history of national, ethnic lot. But our life is very harmonious. But also welcome friends from all over the world come to China to Wuxi, or go to our home to see the altar. Perhaps like me you will respect our government and party.

    May 26, 2011 at 6:27 am |
  108. srobi

    Just redo the domestic product as a per-capita figure and we should be able to easily stay ahead for a long time.

    May 27, 2011 at 10:20 pm |
  109. Abhijit

    Surprised by the illogical comments by people around the globe.

    Whatever way China has chosen to rise up and bring prosperity, it is in interest of their people. Why do we forget about the industrial revolution; have US, Japan polluted less in the past.
    The growth of India, China, other pacific countries and Africa shall come at the same cost or perhaps higher. On what moral grounds, does the West preach the rest of the world and alarm about the potential dangers of pollution, global warming.

    One person referred to GDP per capita, his ignorance and living in denial must be saluted. By 2050, 60-75% of workforce shall be from India, China, Africa, East asia; still talking about the GDP per capita makes no sense here. By 2050, many Europeans would have learnt Mandarin, Hindi, English to make their way to Asia for want of jobs.

    The economies are in recession; it means GDP is on the decline which imnplies GDP per capita is on decline.
    Do we still want to talk about GDP per capita?
    To me, the only parameter to measure the economy size is the population combined with the land area. Rest are just peanuts.

    Here is my analysis about the West

    1. The real fear is the inability of the West to digest the reality and resorting to wars on certain pretexts.
    2. West is not blessed with natural wealth; wealth creation for them is a nightmare hence they usually resort to stupid methodologies. I-Phone is a classic example; people who manufacture them (Chinese) cannot even afford.
    3. West had a good ability to fool other countries snatching their wealth away from them. This may or may not continue.
    4. Only Globalization can stop these differences provided people forget their false pride of a certain Nationality. True integration is tomorrows need.

    thanks for listening me.

    May 28, 2011 at 11:57 am |
  110. Jamie

    bul waste..... fair tales for fools, the international monkey fund must forgot to mention econ circles will break down china bcoz is expan 2fast and 2furious

    May 28, 2011 at 5:05 pm |
  111. Pakistani

    i love china and want her to be on top...
    巴中国长期友好相处
    i wish google translator has translated it accurately...

    May 28, 2011 at 9:08 pm |
  112. KARUNA KARA SWAIN,CHATRAPUR,ORISSA

    IT BECAME POSSIBLE AT THE COST OF DOMINATING HUMAN RIGHT. LABORERS NOT GETTING REASONABLE COST FROM THEIR HARD AND TEAR DOWN LABOR. THOUGH LABORING HARD THEY HAVE NO VOICE TO DEMAND LABOR COST RISE.HERE NO CAPITALISTS EXPLOIT BUT THE STATE IT SELF EXPLOITS. THE LEADERS IN CHARGE OF RULING ENJOYS.FORCEFUL LABORING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RISE OF CHINA ECONOMY, NOTHING ELSE!

    May 29, 2011 at 4:15 pm |
  113. a chinese

    china will lead the world in the new period,that's the Red Age

    May 31, 2011 at 9:17 am |
  114. JR

    The same was being said about Japan's economy 20 years ago, but unlike Japan, China economy is false. Besides currency manipulation, a great number of their corporations are just empty shells. You think investing in Bernie Manoff was unwise wait to see what happens to those investing in China. There is reason these corporations don't let international auditors verify Chinese Corportions. Once this becomes clear to the fools investing in China they will fall fast and hard.

    May 31, 2011 at 7:01 pm |
  115. Ground0

    China is China, and it will go its own way no matter whoelse says or thinks. It does have many deficiencies accumulated in the past several decade to meet the rudimentary need to feeding its large population. I was sad when seeing most of the used-to clear rivers were polluted by the nearby factories, or even with high chimneys discharging billows of black smokes into the blue sky. But when 80% of the people barely had food to eat, particularly still with the fresh memory of being assaulted by foreign powers in the past 100 years, do you think any government rulers or policy makers would give any shit to environment protection or foreign intelligence property protection? This reminds me of the TV program showing an adventrours guy travelling through a desert, getting lost for some days, exposed under the strong sunlight and dehydrated, and need to drink his own urine in order to survive....So getting survive is the basic human nature. When this bottomline is threatened, nobody, whether you are American, Frenchman or Chinese, will give any shit to anythings irrelevant with getting survived.
    Nowadays, after the economy improves, the government already starts taking actions to fix these problems. But you can't expect they can be all solved overnight, as if even the laws against the black people in the US was repealed, the social prejudice still lingered for a long time. I do agree some comments of China's being fat, not strong. Yes, indeed, I accept this as a fact, and believe us, we will try to fix it before it gets worse.

    June 2, 2011 at 6:31 am |
  116. Abhishek Agarwal

    Well, Even if countries like China and India do overtake the US in terms of largest economies, the quality of life would always be way superior in the US. Whats the big deal about having zillions of dollars in reserves when half of your population lives on less than 50 cents a day. A true economic super power would be that country whose peoples can afford to not only satisfy their basic wants but comforts as well. And with the iron curtain still over China, it won't be unbelievable if the entire "China Boom" story turns out to be a farce!!

    June 3, 2011 at 6:33 pm |
  117. Chim chuột

    Chinese is everywhere?

    June 5, 2011 at 11:22 am |
  118. John

    The US is losing thousands of jobs to Indian call centres. Any US corporation using Indian call centres SHOULD BE BOYCOTTED BY AMERICAN CUSTOMERS. At least with a product in a shop, the consumer has the option not to buy a chinese made one but to purchase a US made product instead. Not so with a call centre. This is being foisted on us because India has been anointed by the Israelis as their strategic ally – and we all know who rules America (oops! I wonder if this will get published by Jnn).

    June 5, 2011 at 11:39 pm |
  119. Rene

    China is in many ways already the leading economy, it has the future earnings potential, better get used to it.
    India please stop daydreaming , please walk through your office or home right now and look if you can find anything that says made in India, nothing is made in India, they have some call centers and software writers that do the code writing against the lowest cost. Even if somehow India manages to produce a real product then there is no infra structure to get it out of the country, no roads no containers on demand, no packaging printers , to much red tape to export and to much red tape to import raw materials. And probably almost as important is the fact that given a choice between doing biz in Bombay or shanghai most people I know would not hesitate a second a so to shanghai

    June 6, 2011 at 3:37 pm |
  120. Stone

    i think the Chinese know more about Amercia than the Americans know about China. The two cultures are quite different. The Americans need to be a little modest when handling some issues with the Chinese.

    June 7, 2011 at 6:17 am |
  121. ObamaBush

    Its just statistics. Statistics can trick you into thinking China is an innovative country because it can write a lot of patent applications in China.
    Biggest economy or not and by what measure, it won't change the fact that those with money will still clamour to leave China while they still can.
    While it is communist, China will forever be a country to be exploited by the nouveau riche and the West.

    The pendulum will swing back again once China runs into Japan's problem of not being able to indefinitely export itself into prosperity.

    Its too bad, the US government is still intelligent (hence setting up laws to the richest 5% can exploit all China has to offer while its citizens go jobless) but its people are basically illiterate idiots.

    June 7, 2011 at 9:48 pm |
  122. G2

    Probably, Chinese may know problems better than Americans, especially when they want to go ahead with the US. I saw Chinese wanted to know their own problems so they can grow better. They admire US's achievement and look into US, want to follow it or make itself even better. But it seems that some Americans do not want to look into China as they are enjoying NO.1 of the world. Most Chinese like to see positive parts in US society but most American like to talk about negative parts in China society. Here comes a lot of problems...

    June 14, 2011 at 7:41 am |
  123. Charles

    I follow the analysis here carefully. people esp Americans find this hard to believe, but China is on course. It isnt magic, yes, they will be catapulted to become the first in the stated period, if not even less.

    April 15, 2012 at 8:51 am |
  124. ALL-100 automotive leak detector

    Simply want to say your article is as astonishing. The clarity on your submit is simply spectacular and that i could assume you are knowledgeable on this subject. Fine with your permission let me to seize your feed to stay up to date with forthcoming post. Thanks 1,000,000 and please carry on the enjoyable work.

    July 5, 2012 at 10:31 pm |
  125. CFS-100A| Fuel system cleaner

    I have been browsing online more than 3 hours today, but I by no means discovered any attention-grabbing article like yours. It's lovely worth sufficient for me. In my view, if all site owners and bloggers made just right content as you did, the internet can be much more useful than ever before.

    July 6, 2012 at 8:31 am |
  126. icon design

    Between us speaking, in my opinion, it is obvious. I advise to you to try to look in google.coj

    hpixel

    September 23, 2012 at 5:03 am |
  127. icons downloads

    In it something is. Now all is clear, many tahnks for the information.

    hpixel

    September 23, 2012 at 5:50 pm |
  128. nrj

    Heyy really grest content.....
    keep bring up such content thanks.. ^_^
    Storage Facilities
    A very well written article, i must say.

    October 8, 2012 at 1:36 pm |
  129. Pharma630

    Hello! bcedffc interesting bcedffc site! I'm really like it! Very, very bcedffc good!

    December 26, 2012 at 9:31 am |
  130. sapzillworld

    Well thanks for sharing such a great site, i found it very helpful and informative keep it up. Get additional help on how to browse the terminology database all for free!! sap community network

    November 5, 2013 at 8:22 am |

Post a comment


 

CNN welcomes a lively and courteous discussion as long as you follow the Rules of Conduct set forth in our Terms of Service. Comments are not pre-screened before they post. You agree that anything you post may be used, along with your name and profile picture, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and the license you have granted pursuant to our Terms of Service.

About Business 360

CNN International's business anchors and correspondents get to grips with the issues affecting world business, and they want your questions and feedback.

 
 
Powered by WordPress.com VIP