October 25th, 2011
04:45 AM GMT
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Hong Kong (CNN) – India is expected to overtake fellow Asian powerhouse China in terms of GDP growth in 2013, according to a new report from Ernst and Young.

India is forecast to achieve 9.5% growth, compared with China’s expected 9%.

Both countries remain among the top performers in the  group of 25 so called Rapid Growth Markets (RGMs),  which also includes Brazil and Russia.

The report, which is based on the Oxford Economics Growth Model and offers insight on macroeconomic trends across these fast-growing markets,  attributes China and India’s relative resilience in the face of global economic turmoil to their large domestic markets and low oil and commodity prices .

But it cautions that inflation, which rose to 10.9% in India in August, needs to be reined in.

“Once inflation is in check, and interest rates are no longer rising, consumers will be more willing to spend, supporting a general improvement in the business environment, with growth steadily accelerating during 2012,” the report said.

The report also warns of a grim future in the aftermath of a potential European recession if the Eurozone debt crisis is not resolved.

Average GDP growth among RGMs would stagnate to 3.2% in 2013, the report predicts, almost half of the current 6.2% estimate for the same year.



soundoff (63 Responses)
  1. Vikram Singh

    Outperform China by 2013 in what? Bribery? Scams? Unholy political dalliances? Get a reality check CNN – it is only the upper crust of people that are doing better in India; the poor remain as they were many centuries ago. Honestly, this article is a joke and one of the crude perceptions Western countries have of the East.

    October 25, 2011 at 7:58 am |
  2. AJ

    If all of India were to be thinking like Vikram singh.. commentor above, India would have never achieved what it has achieved today. Macroeconomy is not as simple as you think Mr.Vikram.

    October 25, 2011 at 8:26 am |
  3. arjay

    If you look at the population and if the bottom line is improvement in human life, GDP,etc may not offer the best gauge. Fact is, wealth distribution is still amassive problem but in all India overtaking China is a feat itself.

    October 25, 2011 at 8:32 am |
  4. Mustafa Saleem

    More backward a country is more space it has to cover, therefore more speed it can catch up. But that do not really matter, because size matters! Say if you are on the road, you will catch up more speed on open space, wide road but as soon as you will hit traffic finding mature economies ahead, you will have to slow down. China is way ahead, so India has a lot of ground to cover.

    Besides there are various reasons why i think India can never achieve what people expect it to, like becoming a super power, one of the reasons is their discrimination of different casts; which is unfortunately a part of their religion! So if 60-65% of your population is "untouchables" then how could you achieve top ranks?

    October 25, 2011 at 8:37 am |
  5. Anand Verma

    To Mr. Mustafa Saleem. I am not defending casteism in India, but would like to tell your lower casts are part of the work force, from top to bottom, unbeknownst to you. Indian's do have caste issue, but education and communication is working that out. We are progressive people and do not waste time when a successful is presented to us. Cateism is a lack of education, it was present in euorpe and all of the developed nations, and today it has mitigated effects due to educaton and communication.

    October 25, 2011 at 8:46 am |
  6. Paul

    CNN hates the chinese long time.

    October 25, 2011 at 8:52 am |
  7. Paul

    Why does CNN want to see the chinese fail so badly?

    October 25, 2011 at 8:53 am |
  8. NoImporta!

    Dude Mustafa! I didn't know that they teach funny business theories (like the one you just mentioned) in madarsas! I had a perception that they only teach religion (hate) and technical stuff (making bombs). Why don't you go to a real business school and get yourself educated. Oh, but I suspect you would need a primary education before going to B school!

    October 25, 2011 at 8:57 am |
  9. Faisal

    I think its too early to say that, will poor quality of call centers and companies pulling them back .. i fear more jobless people.

    October 25, 2011 at 9:03 am |
  10. XYZ

    Yeah Faisal, mustafa, saleem, mohammed, khan, Nabeel, etc,. want to see India fail. We know that.

    October 25, 2011 at 9:25 am |
  11. zeeshan

    Pakistan will surpass India insha allah very soon.

    October 25, 2011 at 9:33 am |
  12. derenlepeju

    This sounds like a report that says Nigeria will overtake South Africa in 2015 as the Africa largest economy. One thing is common to both India and Nigeria that will likely make this prediction a mirage... endemic corruption!

    October 25, 2011 at 9:36 am |
  13. SirBose

    Building consensus is far more difficult than building roads; the fact that India has been able to achieve this despite plurality and contradiction is commendable. Whilst democracies might have other virtues, high growth rates has never been one of them. There might be irritation with the government in India but never fear. There is inclusiveness as well, and there are clear trends of that increasing – yes the pace is slow and sometimes agonizing. However rich or poor, we can see the country improving in all respects – economic, social, in science, in sports and culturally. For Humanity itself this has been a great achievement.

    October 25, 2011 at 9:42 am |
  14. Chinapride

    CNN would never say anything about China, this is a well known fact !
    Never trust any CNN news about China, they are just BS !

    October 25, 2011 at 11:03 am |
  15. rene

    just walk around your house or office and name 3 things that are made in India, il bet you that you can't.
    try shipping any goods out of or into India without pulling your hair out in despair because of the red tape.
    India is a wonderful country with a great future but you are kidding yourself if you think its on par with China

    October 25, 2011 at 11:04 am |
  16. lala

    To rene:
    actually India is a world leader in generic pharmaceuticals. Chances are that the medicine in your medicine cabinet is made in India. But the game of the world media is to turn India against China. Indians are for China to prosper and partner with India. Chinese should feel the same way about Indians.

    October 25, 2011 at 11:22 am |
  17. EastPark

    Start learning Inglish

    October 25, 2011 at 11:29 am |
  18. lala

    I have many chinese business partners – we get along very well with them because the cultural values are similar to a large extent. I hope the Chinese and Indian policy makers don't fall into the trap of "dominant" country syndrome and ruin the excellent people to people relationships between Indians and chinese.

    October 25, 2011 at 11:30 am |
  19. jojoj

    you know what i was in india last year and i couldn belive that they are so underdevelope road taxi hospitals i mean they havent eradicate tuberculosis yet

    October 25, 2011 at 11:44 am |
  20. khan

    do you think it a news ? cnn, you've nothing else except wasting our times. it seems that cnn has problem with china.

    October 25, 2011 at 12:01 pm |
  21. Honey

    This century is Made in China no one can outperform China

    October 25, 2011 at 12:05 pm |
  22. Akhil

    First and foremost its vital to understand that India and China are fundamentally different societies and economies and you cannot compare the to based on a single yardstick be it growth rates, income levels etc. Unfortunately the world has a poor view of India largely because most people do not see the poverty, inequality and suppression of human rights in China thanks to the political establishment in place. There are plenty of cities and people in far worst conditions in China that you can imagine, unfortunately you will never hear about them. History has shown us that Communism and Capitalism cannot co exit peacefully and China I believe is at an inflection point in its History. India on the other hand has the strong fundamentals both economically and legislatively. Our biggest problems are corruption and poor governance and these issues are finally being tackled. In the long run I think people will want to do business with India whereas they will be forced to to do business with China since most of them have pretty much sold themselves out to China.

    October 25, 2011 at 12:06 pm |
  23. Aj

    One important thing to note, India's economical reform started 20 yrs after china started its reform.

    October 25, 2011 at 12:25 pm |
  24. wasso

    Outperform in what ??? Corruption and bonded labor ?

    October 25, 2011 at 12:30 pm |
  25. Akhil

    Mr. Wasso - Reread my post. Corruption and bonded labor are as rampant in China as they are in India. Unfortunately you cant get any statistic out of China and hence India always looks as the laggard. China success is it's execution of projects and India's failure is the lack of governance. Both of these however has no effect on the poor and the needy both countries fair equally badly on human rights, corruption. bonded labor, poverty etc.

    October 25, 2011 at 12:36 pm |
  26. Devdutt Roy Chowdhury

    Wealth or economic progress of a state is often loosely translated as better standards of living for its people. It is often not the case. Its not without reason, that people like Vikram Singh lose patience and comment the way he did. In India sometimes you can find yourself in situations where your patience is put to test. But, again, I do not blame the Government or the red-tape or anything like that ....in a democracy, people get the Government they deserve. So, its upto us to bring about the change. Talking of bribes.....I'd like to ask EVERY Indian who reads this....Did you ever accept a bribe or did you ever bribe or try to bribe anyone (Howsoever small the amount of money involved)? If the honest answer is "no", I will be, honestly, surprised. If the honest answer is "Yes", you know what I mean, when I say that people get the Government they deserve.

    October 25, 2011 at 12:38 pm |
  27. xyz

    There is a difference in enjoying what you have already achieved & being in the process of achieving it. you compromise a lot in the way up, to ultimately enjoy success. India is in that transformation phase, so near yet so far.

    October 25, 2011 at 12:53 pm |
  28. Nel Rivero

    Growth in China has been slowing down lately so it sounds logical any other country over takes it.

    skyladdercoaching.blogspot.com

    October 25, 2011 at 1:32 pm |
  29. ketan

    India will become the super power soon.

    October 25, 2011 at 1:44 pm |
  30. wasso

    If China's space program and accomplishments in that field are anything to go by vis-a-vis India, then I think this article is just regurgitating fudged and overly rosy stats that seem to emanate from India periodically.

    October 25, 2011 at 2:02 pm |
  31. Vijai

    Zeeshan – good joke !!! but we would love to see Pakistan to surpass India...plse plan for that dont just do talking .. stop terrorism first, I am sure they will reach a better place if they stop breeding terrorism

    October 25, 2011 at 2:20 pm |
  32. Nazca

    If we can survive 2012.

    October 25, 2011 at 2:24 pm |
  33. Mike

    Where are the per capita income statistics. GDP means little. You have to see how the GDP is spread among the population. The article may or may not be accurate depending on the spread of the GDP.

    October 25, 2011 at 2:24 pm |
  34. Uncle Lim

    All these jokers can’t even foreseen the wall street crash, prediction for 2013 ? LOL.

    October 25, 2011 at 2:33 pm |
  35. Chinapride

    Please stay off drug and issue less laughable news articles concerning China CNN, when it comes to China related issues you bias CNN has absolutely NO credibility left, it's obvious that your bias news agency has always been trying to degrade China's image whenever possible ! ! !

    October 25, 2011 at 2:37 pm |
  36. krm1007

    In India, millions of girls are strangled, slowly starved or simply tossed in the trash. Moreover, in India, at least 1,370 girls are aborted every day. As a comparison, some 250 Indians die every day in road accidents. Terrorists killed about six people, on an average, every day in 2009. In the last two decades of economic progress, 10 million girls have died as such in India.
    SHAME ON INDIA AND ITS BARBARIC AND MEDIEVAL CULTURE !!!
    Indians have killed more human beings (girls particularly) than Al Qaeda and Talibans put together.

    October 25, 2011 at 4:32 pm |
  37. krm1007

    The Multidimensional Poverty Index developed by Oxford University shows that India is far poorer than Africa not just in number but also in intensity.
    The new poverty measure shows that 8 states out of the 29 states in India have more poor people than 26 poorest African countries combined. The Multidimensional poverty index views poverty from several different angles instead of just GDP figures. India is crippled by so many problems. For example, India's population growth rate is increasing by the day putting pressure on the limited resources and leaving many Indians in absolute poverty. India is very poor in terms of education, in terms of economic improvement, infrastructure, heath care, etc.

    October 25, 2011 at 4:33 pm |
  38. krm1007

    "Amnesty International is calling for an impartial investigation into mass graves found in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Sunday, India's Jammu and Kashmir State Human Rights Commission released a report saying a three-year investigation had uncovered 2,156 unidentified bodies in 38 sites in the region. In a statement released Monday, Amnesty International asked Indian officials to allow impartial forensic experts to carry out a thorough investigation of the skeletal remains. The rights group also urged Indian authorities to ensure the safety of the witnesses who gave statements to police during the investigation. Indian authorities conducted the inquiry in response to allegations that Indian security forces have committed rights abuses in fighting a more than two-decade-long Muslim separatist insurgency. Rights activists say at least 8,000 people have gone missing in Indian Kashmir since the separatists began fighting in 1989 for independence from Hindu-majority India or a merger with Muslim-majority Pakistan. Rebel attacks and Indian government crackdowns have killed at least 50,000 people.

    October 25, 2011 at 4:34 pm |
  39. wasso

    krm1007 You digress, what ?

    October 25, 2011 at 4:47 pm |
  40. MrMan

    WHAT CRISIS?: Canadians will see a salary increase in 2012 ... http://canuckreport.ca

    October 25, 2011 at 5:13 pm |
  41. jesus

    Performance...a western concept of gloating and a western capitalist obsession with money (greed).
    Its like comparing penis sizes and believing the longer one is better?

    The decent chinese are not bothered by this nor are the average chinese person human rights been abused.

    October 25, 2011 at 5:32 pm |
  42. godott

    India needs to make corruption a death penalty offense like it is in China. Corruption has been a monkey on India's back for too long.

    October 25, 2011 at 5:35 pm |
  43. EastPark

    What corruption ? In Wall Street it calls capitalism.

    October 25, 2011 at 5:49 pm |
  44. Ram Iyer

    Hi,

    GDP represents what's produced, yup we may be producing more than China. As this report says by 2013. Now the point is consumption is confined to a small portion of the population, in other terms the "growing middle class, upper middle class and the rich". In India, people outside of the these three are large and the growth in that section is greatly undermined. This means, in the years to come there is a greater divide between the rich and the poor. In the last 40-50 years, Indian government has ignored progress in the agricultural sector and rather working on industrialization of the rural sector for uplift of the population. In other words, India will greatly depend on import to feed it's population and thus opening up opportunities for external markets to capitalize. I sincerely hope India doesn't fall into the category which I would call, "TRISHANKU", neither developed in full sense and you can't call it developing!!!!

    October 25, 2011 at 7:11 pm |
  45. Oh that's right

    I see CNN is trolling for article views. This has to be one of the best attempts I've seen yet.

    October 25, 2011 at 7:19 pm |
  46. hkmp

    not amused to see so many PAKI's in the scene. whenever something good about India is being told, these guys keep on coming. These people always have a mindset of keep disturbing others(either by bombs or by words). Pakistan is no where near India in any aspect. Plz you try to improve your government and be in a good growing path...Jai Hind..

    October 25, 2011 at 10:06 pm |
  47. John

    Never. India is still a useless country. Only a few % of the population enjoying the growth and wealth. A country which discriminates against it's own people (caste system) will never be able to grow to full potential..

    October 25, 2011 at 10:11 pm |
  48. That'snotTrue:[

    Dear author and other commentors, please read The Economist's article "Catching up to the Dragon"
    Author, you are dreaming! India does have potential to catch up to, not surpass China, not with the system they have in place currently, they need to change that first, and stop being so dependent on western powers and then maybe they will surpass China.
    Other commentors, no need to be pro China/India or anti India/China, this is CNN's game, or rather the western... well US's game, to turn two up and coming countries against each other! So India, play by the west's rules & beat them at it! & China will keep on doing what it's doing, neither country try to conflict unlike the current superpower in place =[
    Both have pros and cons, let's focus on our own problems first instead of a much ado about nothing, which CNN is trying to cause.

    October 25, 2011 at 10:31 pm |
  49. gliese42

    India can be a great nation if it can wipe out poverty, corruption, religious extremist be it hindus or muslims and the importance of 1 sole national language be it hindi or english to unify the country. Shih Huang Ti succeeded by invasion but Asoka failed

    October 26, 2011 at 5:22 am |
  50. ahmet

    I think Turkey will surpass both china and india.( I hope so :)

    October 26, 2011 at 7:27 am |
  51. chinapride

    @ahmet – you think? Keep on dreaming, a Turkey will always be a Turkey, it will never fly high like an eagle !

    October 26, 2011 at 9:09 am |
  52. Plastica Estética e cia

    India is a great nation, and will still give the talk in the world! team plasticaesteticaecia.com.br

    October 26, 2011 at 7:47 pm |
  53. EQ Post

    Indian business expats are probably some of the best in the world.But they have to be reminded about the values
    of the nation's founder,Mahatma Gandhi.
    What Can R.Gupta,R. Rajaratnam & Nandu Nandkishore Learn From Mahatma Gandhi? a lot!

    http://www.equalizerpost.com/2011/10/what-can-rguptar-rajaratnam-nandu.html

    October 27, 2011 at 12:12 am |
  54. hkmp

    Being an Indian i have to tell that it has currently a lot of problems like poverty,malnutrition,literacy etc and have to do a lot of improvement in that fields. Also reminding that it has a huge number of middle class families whose incomes are rapidly increasing. In case of outperforming china, i dont think so in the near future. India can grow hand in hand with china for mutual benefits and wil be helpfull for both the neighbours.
    In the case of caste system, there is still discrimination but its improving. India's population consist of all the major religions of the world like christianity,islam,hinduism,sikhism,buddhism,jainism etc and its hard to satisfy all religion's needs.

    October 27, 2011 at 7:27 pm |
  55. Proud to be Indian

    come on guys i read all the comments above and felt good as well as bad. Well what i want to say is that India and China both are the fastest developing economies in the world and i don't think anyone should doubt that because whatever you say doesn't impact the facts about the economical growth in India.Many people in the above comments said that India is medivial,barbaric etc well i have a answer for them and that is Indian civilization and chinese civilizations are oldest in the world and at the time western civilization dosen't even knew anything about clothes we Indians and Chinese are wearing them. Some said there is casteism in India well then all of those who said about casteism in India please read European medivial and ancient history and you will know about the slaves in Rome or burning of womens in Britain and many other European countries. You talk about poverty in India well than you must know that Europe is responsible for that ,we were the richest country in the planet but Britain enslaved us for more than 200 years and drained all our wealth for the developement of their own country and left us with nothing and after all that after 64 years of independence i think India is doing preety good for itself. Actually all of you who are saying all such things about India are barbaric.All i want to say is that before saying anything about anyone else please have a look in yourself also.And about the development of India i will say that why don't we wait and lets see because right now India is one the biggest economies in the world and there is no doubdt about that and i think everyone should agree to that and i dont think India would do anything get down from its current status.Times are changing people which means you should also change your thinking. 21st centuary is of both India and China and no one denies it atleast not the facts.

    October 29, 2011 at 1:12 am |
  56. Sharath

    Hey Vikram Singh (post October 25, 2011 at 7:58 am ), nice justification for avoiding India. Sleep well you dumb selfish Indian. (or should I say non-returning Indian).

    All those (including Vikram) who are criticising India, haven't your parents told you 'don't ask what the country has given you, ask what you have given your country'. The variety of justifications these NRIs give for not returning to India amazes me every day. Bottom line is they are selfish. You know, I know every one knows. Sleep well in those big homes you have there in US. Find comfort in those BMWs while others in India will work hard every day to wipe out poverty and save one more child from slavery. Every time your conscience asks you (which I am sure occurs quite often), just donate some money through charities so you can go back to your comfortable life styles. Your 'remotely donated' dollars don't make a dent. All you are buying is sleep.

    PS: I am an NRI for 12 years, six digit salary etc etc...voluntarily returning to India this year to do my part to the economy (however little it may be).

    November 8, 2011 at 3:04 am |
  57. Avinash

    India has a long way to catch up with China or the developed countries in all aspects. Nevertheless, India is leading in so many aspects. To my fellow Indians, we should take all the criticism here about India constructively irrespective of the commentor's objective behind it. Most of the things said here by the critics are true. Casteism, poverty, corruption, abortions of girl children etc are REAL PROBLEMS! Instead of defending India against these issues, we need to fight these issues. In our individual capacity we can do a lot. Stop giving importance to the caste of others around you, be it while interacting with them or be it intercaste marriages. Contribute in your capacity to the charities whorking towards eradicating poverty and promoting education. Stop accepting or paying bribes. This might be hard but isn't impossible, if you really want to see your country come out of these problems and be a leader in true sense. Accept a girl child the same way as you accept a boy. This however is fast changing already. This is a problem more in the poor and uneducated sections of India.
    I see many Indians reacting to these issues here by pointing out the issues in other countries. Well that doesn't solve our problems! This is a forum that infact highlights what our top priorities should be and gives us a chance to do an self-evaluation and start working!

    November 10, 2011 at 4:43 am |
  58. Sharath (to Avinash)

    Well Said!

    November 11, 2011 at 1:14 am |
  59. icons library

    Nice idea

    October 9, 2012 at 4:24 pm |
  60. Redshirt

    2013 has come. Let what will happen in India. Over take China in rape? Or more slums? Funny and hopeless country. Always shouting that it has democracy can make it advanced fast. Why this democracy did not bring any fast development even before China started its change. Any can explain this?

    January 4, 2013 at 6:51 pm |
  61. Shonit

    Hey guys,
    Wanted to share some stuff with you. I used Vistaprint for some embroidered t-shirts with logo. Damn impressed. Check it out if you can.

    January 30, 2013 at 4:52 am |
  62. huo

    Stephen Roach formerly CEO of Morgan Stanley Asia and now Yale professor said that he had been bullish on India but he has become disappointed. He remarked that "India is long on excuses and short on action"

    September 20, 2013 at 8:31 am |
  63. bob

    well, 2014 has arrived and China has pulled further ahead of India. I'm guessing the author, like gordon chang, will move the goal post to 2020? LOL

    January 8, 2014 at 3:48 am |

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