August 3rd, 2012
04:17 AM GMT
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Hong Kong (CNN) – Will China’s economy have a hard landing, soft touchdown or slow ascension?

The lack of strong action Thursday from the European Central Bank on Europe’s spiraling debt crisis – coupled with similar inaction from the U.S. Federal Reserve on the slowing U.S. economy earlier this week – has ratcheted global investor stress on how China will handle its own slowdown.

The question percolated throughout interviews on CNN International business shows this week.

“It is quite disturbing that Brazil and India have slowed down so much, obviously there’s this huge debate going on about China’s slowdown,” Jim O’Neill, chairman of asset management for Goldman Sachs, told Richard Quest when he argued the slowdown in developing behemoths like China and the rest of the BRIC bloc is more worrisome than the eurozone crisis.

Investor Mark Mobius, head of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, disagreed.

"A lot of people ask me if China is going to have a hard or soft landing," Mobius said. "And I say they are not landing. They're continuing to grow and they're growing at a pretty fast pace."

Still, the signs of a China slowdown are many. Inventories in factories are piling up, and companies ranging from electronics, airlines and sportswear have issued profit warnings.

“While the world fixates on what the Fed and the ECB have up their collective sleeves to stem the sovereign debt contagion and to spur growth, it appears to me that the policy prescriptions might need to include China,” wrote Mike Paulenoff of “As in, how to avert a hard landing?”

So, hard days ahead for China? Will its economy touch down gently, or is it likely to  trampoline – with help from Beijing – like it did in the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crisis?

Have your say. Leave a comment below.

soundoff (125 Responses)
  1. Peter Boh

    The world will pay a hight cost for the cheap stuff from China!!!

    August 3, 2012 at 7:29 am |
  2. Bruce Atkinson

    The article shows one side of human nuature ,when somebody is coming down in the world ,he would like to see somebody else is worse than him to get comforted

    August 3, 2012 at 7:41 am |
  3. Roger Russin

    China has a small internal consumer population. They must have lots of warehouse space, so it took a while to fill those up and now weak consumer purchases around the world is causing Chinese inventory to overflow. Now, they are forced to slow their production, so earnings are down and Chinese stock prices are on a slide. The hope of increased earnings in Chinese companies depend on export trade increasing which will occur when Americans and Europeans increase their consumer spending. Unemployment must be increasing in China now.

    August 3, 2012 at 8:06 am |

    In my considered opinion, the leadership responsible for economy and it's associated fields, may not be having an overall comprehensive idea for an all round sustained economic growth. Their initial economic growth is imbalanced and the policies evolved undergoes too frequent modifications which implies absence of long range vision. The widening of domestic customer affordability base, especially in BRIC countries is not given any attention. Hence, the dwindle in foreign market and the limited domestic market might have created this economic slump.

    August 3, 2012 at 8:06 am |
  5. Jun Sorioso

    I expect the Chinese leadership to be under a lot of pressure to window dress Chinese economic performance one way or another at least until the leadership transfer late this year. In other words conditions are probably worse than what we are allowed to see.

    August 3, 2012 at 8:22 am |
  6. Migen Bora

    We must not forget that China is a dictatorship state. People there are not free (they don`t even know how freedom is like).
    They are ruled by their communist government with brutality and classic dictatorship methods.
    Now , China may have some economic results ,but they come from underpaid workforce and by not having the costs that Western Countries have (health care,RD etc).
    It cannot hold forever , one day it will collapse (like the Soviet Union).
    Just ask your self how many Chinese people would accept willingly to have only one child or a pay of few dollars, or not to have the right to travel freely (even in their country) , or not to have the right to criticize their government , etc etc.
    It cannot hold on for longer.

    August 3, 2012 at 9:08 am |
  7. AlexM

    I am just from China and I don't understand what this article is talking about. With each next visit in China (I am visiting pretty often), I see signs of growth. Chinese are getting used to spend money and this contributes to the growing domestic market, it is a new trend for them and it will take some time. Reason for the slow growth is not absence of money on hands but tradition to more save and less to spend. What many observers are missing is that most purchases are paid in full, they have no debt, instead they have good savings. Chinese economy is getting mature and as a result it can not run as fast as they do at the start point.

    August 3, 2012 at 9:24 am |
  8. Saorise72

    There are many problems in China besides the manufacturing and export issues. One issue is the growing amount of debt. Some cities like Wuhan are over 900 million in debt. There are the issues of illegal banking and trading in China, some of which American regulators just picked up on, google: SEC investigating Chinese companies. There was also a huge speculation on housing the past 10 years that has gotten out of hand, the gov. has tried to curb the problem but people have learned to work around the system. Take for example in mainland China you can only buy one house under your name (after the 2008 olympics) but the new leader coming in has more than one in Hong Kong. Money is leaving China, many ex-government officials and their families have also left China, taking with them some of the graft they siphoned off the tax payer here. There is also a number of accounting problems, even with recent numbers posted about GDP growth. So when the new leadership comes into office they have many challenges ahead of them. With growing discontent and food prices they better find some solutions to chill out the inflation, cut speculation, increase accounting regulations, reform the banks, get rid of illegal banking, stop government graft and etc. Much like South Korea had to do in the 90's.

    August 3, 2012 at 9:41 am |
  9. srtcruz

    The Chinese model actually has one very distinct advantage versus the west – central control. That model will be better at resolving a crisis since the debates and politics are kept within a smaller core.

    They will not have the same political issues as the "Debt Ceiling" political issue in the US or the current political mess in the European Union – in-short they have speed and decisiveness.

    Can you imagine if both issues arise in a country 4 times the size of the United States? Oh right, India.

    August 3, 2012 at 9:42 am |
  10. Tuck

    No matter how China lands, much of its economy rise is due to US's greedy for cheap labor, US's push for globalisation. US needs to fix it, they created this monster for the world to be fearful of.

    August 3, 2012 at 9:43 am |
  11. power4things

    The slowdown in the West is likely being used to stangle China. Everybody gets some damage, but it's three go down, two come back up ...

    August 3, 2012 at 9:57 am |
  12. chris ozman

    But the big question that has not only not been answered, but never been asked by our pathetic media these days is......If just about every country in the world is broke, then WHO has the money? In other words who, ultimately, do we owe all this money to?

    August 3, 2012 at 9:58 am |
  13. power4things

    Whoa, Tuck, just relax with the US bashing, Europe has its fair share of Chinese goods and outsourced factories, too ... besides, usually the only people who complain about "greed" are those not getting their share of it.

    August 3, 2012 at 10:00 am |
  14. FEH

    Yes, every country has hudge debts, companies are making losses, workers are underpaid, WHERE IS THE MONEY ????????????? Growth of the Econnomy is an utopy. The resources on Earth are definitively limited.
    Nothing more is created, only transformed. If somebody is making money, many others have lost money.

    Making war, creating destruction is creating GDP. Somebody died is creatng GDP. Yes we are in a strange world.
    What the US are doing in the near East, is like crusades of the Christians, is like colonisation, is domination of others.
    Human kind will not survive, if some always want to dominate others.

    August 3, 2012 at 10:14 am |
  15. Dobrin Ivanov

    In my opinion China`s biggest advantage is their huge amount of money in all currencies. And they are interested to use this currencies in order to achieve their goals. China is about to start a massive projects in corn and potatoes crops in my country – Bulgaria, part of EU. I hope my country will get a good benefits from those projects.

    August 3, 2012 at 10:22 am |
  16. Kishmot

    No society has yet got to grips with the impact of the technology that also includes the internet. That impact is a deep social impact, how we run our lives, how we trust each other. The problem is also one of scale. Just think of the trillions of bonds. Something is radically wrong and we need to start asking the right questions and finding answers lest the wheel becomes unsteerable.

    August 3, 2012 at 10:48 am |
  17. mbmendo

    China has effectively been playing a global game of monopoly, sucking manufacturing out of the old manufacturing bases, with the effect of crippling those economies. So, how do they afford China's products? Basing economies on buying stuff demands unhappiness/ dissatisfaction on the part of the buyers. So, we are unhappy whether we can afford to buy or not. With the coming global slump from combined effects of climate change and ever growing oil prices, we will have the chance to rethink the form and function of our economies. They must remain within planetary limits and be about supporting individuals, communities and the natural systems on which we depend. Ignoring the big picture and the long term is creating our problems, and it is likely that only a collapse of our current system will give humanity the opportunity to successfully reform our behaviour and organisation.

    August 3, 2012 at 11:17 am |
  18. Mustafa

    Every economy which is based on comodities will always survive any economic down turn, becuase they r manufacturing products which are widely consumes all around the world, sometimes at a high demand and sometimes low, like China. Unlike other economies which are only based on financial modeling and maintaining numbers which do not even exist in real time. USA boomed in the past for their innovative products and went down after getting fat and slugish in maintaining that innovation. USA and GB is never getting back up cus they do not have anything to sell, which the world might need, well nto really for USA cus they are good at creating the demand for their weapons (if you know aht i mean). So as long as there are wars around the world, USA will do fine, but for other European countries, they need to simply start manufacturing.

    August 3, 2012 at 11:25 am |
  19. Dani Yuliadi

    August 3, 2012 at 11:32 am |
  20. China is evil

    China is evil, China is evil... I've repeated this in my head for 100 times already. So please CNN I've done my brainwash quota for the day. Could you give me something else to digest?

    August 3, 2012 at 11:52 am |
  21. Tharindu Ameresekere (Senior CIMA Lecturer from Sri Lanka)

    China's growth has been largely dependent on main cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. there is vast potential in second tier cities such as Dalian and Wuhan which the govt must move in quick to harness. There by the stress on the only 4 First tier citiies Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen can be reduced enabling a moee organic growth.

    August 3, 2012 at 12:41 pm |
  22. Huaqiao

    To "China is evil" – I think the devil dwells within your own head and that is why you so evilly and maliciously keep on repeating "China is evil" until you become so crazy.

    August 3, 2012 at 1:12 pm |
  23. Richard

    China's manufacturing growth that has slowed down to 50.1 in July compared to 50.2 in June will pick up again in August and reach 50.3 my guess....

    August 3, 2012 at 2:13 pm |
  24. thislittlepiggywentweeweewee

    Whole world economy crash.
    Go boom.
    We fall in sinkhole.

    August 3, 2012 at 2:31 pm |
  25. simple simon

    Intelligent analysis of the situation isn't worth anything. You can't bring a dead dog back to life. The dog has been kept on life support for a very long time. Now the dog is dead, but no one seems to realize it and everyone just keeps kicking the dog. When a dog dies, the fleas are screwed.

    Huaqiao, you missed the sarcasm.

    August 3, 2012 at 2:38 pm |
  26. go for broke

    Let's see...the world's gone broke, but we have no shortage of billionaires, and multimillionaires by the millions.


    August 3, 2012 at 2:53 pm |
  27. Wailun Ng

    Mobius is right – China is still growing, albeit at a slower rate. There's no hard or soft landing that westerners are accustomed to. The real hard landing will come in the next decade when the grow is no longer sustainable.. China's growth for the past 20 years is fueled by government land sales, high taxes and massive infrastructure spending. this can be sustained for another 10 – 15 years but after that, reaility will sink in. don't forget, China's economy was miniscule when the current boom started in 1993, unlike other countries which had been growing steadily since the end of WW2. thus, China's current economic boom is mainly due to compressing 60 years (since 1950) into 20 years (1993 to 2012). i've been in China for almost 20 years so i see things differently

    August 3, 2012 at 3:38 pm |
  28. Wayan Chan

    China has almost hit the "bottom" of its current cycle. I expect a BIG bounce from early next year onwards so would buying in now as prices are extremely cheap.

    August 3, 2012 at 4:10 pm |
  29. major tom

    Mr. Ameresekere, how can you exclude Chongqing from a list of China's first tier cities? I don't think you know your facts.

    August 3, 2012 at 5:08 pm |
  30. Thegodfather

    Deng Xiaoping – a period of economic growth
    Jiang Zeming – a period of economic growth
    Hu Jintao – a period of economic growth
    The next President to be – do you think he will let China into a period of economic recession ? And let his name be tainted in history ? Think about it.
    I bet the next man in power will continue to lead China into continual prosperity and god economic progress.
    That's 100% for sure.

    August 3, 2012 at 5:16 pm |
  31. Godfather

    Deng Xiaoping – a period of economic growth
    Jiang Zeming – a period of economic growth
    Hu Jintao – a period of economic growth
    The next President to be – do you think he will let China into a period of economic recession ? And let his name be tainted in history ? Think about it.
    I bet the next man in power will continue to lead China into continual prosperity and god economic progress.
    That's 100% for sure.

    August 3, 2012 at 5:18 pm |
  32. Godfather Al Pacino

    Deng Xiaoping – a period of economic growth
    Jiang Zeming – a period of economic growth
    Hu Jintao – a period of economic growth
    The next President to be – do you think he will let China into a period of economic recession ? And let his name be tainted in history ? Think about it.
    I bet the next man in power will continue to lead China into continual prosperity and good economic progress.
    That's 100% for sure.

    August 3, 2012 at 5:21 pm |
  33. Bushdiver

    I think China will be just fine. Eat your hearts out US and EU.

    August 3, 2012 at 8:44 pm |
  34. zy130

    China's economy will be affected by many factors, some of them are no just economic or financial issues

    August 3, 2012 at 11:26 pm |
  35. Cherish

    That means money is moving different places other than china, money does not like uncertainties. China does not float RMB, we are probably going to see china as another Greece, not Euro Only

    August 4, 2012 at 1:44 am |
  36. Marco Hsiao

    [ China: Great potential is released at the beginning period ]

    Don't make illusion. Could some people in the article read Chinese writing? Millions of Chinese articles in Mainland China, ROC Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore could they read? A huge coal mine was found in Xinjiang, do they know?

    China (Mainland China + ROC Taiwan + Hong Kong + Macau) are all moving to more prosperity. Singapore has surpassed the US on per capita income, the gap is expanding. Their ancestors are from South China. Now lots of enterprises are investing in Mainland China from ROC Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau and Singapore, and more and more marriages happen between them. (Singaporean marry Chinese but no Malay.) They all believe Mainland Chinese and Chinese in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore will have same living standard in the future.

    Certainly in the future Fujian province would be same prosperous with Taiwan. Shandong province would be same prosperous with South Korea. Fujian and lots of places in Mainland China have great potential for developing. Besides, almost all countries surrounding China are moving to prosperity.

    August 4, 2012 at 2:56 am |
  37. Marco Hsiao

    [The US: treasury is closing to peril, big crash will happen ]

    On the other hand, in 2012 the US Federal debt is exceeding US$ 16 trillion; it is approaching to peril. Obama administration borrows huge money of 7% GDP but only grow 2%. It is very possible the US will have a big crash in 2019.

    The US uses lie – weapon of mass destruction – to murder more than 100,000 innocent Iraqi civilians and 4500 US soldiers; force Iraq from Iran's enemy to become Iran's ally. The US also kills lots of innocent Muslims in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya and Syria. Thus the US is worst country on violating human right and violating morality in the 21st century.

    God is angry. The best strategy for long term interest – The US to pays apology and compensation to Iraq (US$ 6 trillion), Afghanistan (3 trillion), Pakistan (1 trillion) Libya (1 trillion) and Syria (1 trillion); otherwise a big catastrophe will be inevitable.

    August 4, 2012 at 2:57 am |
  38. Marie

    I was recently in China in Shanghai and Guangzhou. Both cities looked modern, all cars on the roads were new. McDonalds (sadly) was full and the meals were around $5. Nice new condos and houses were being built. I would say people there have more money than ever and the cities were very modern. no outward signs of collapse yet. They were asking more $$$ for shopping items compared to a few years ago. The people were happy and smiling, food was awesome. I really hope they are able to make China a nice and prosperous place to live. The downside was the horrible pollution, the sky was brown/grey most of the time. I came home with the worst sinus infection I have ever had. They need to clean up their act, so people can breathe!

    August 4, 2012 at 4:07 am |
  39. WakeUpCallToChina

    China's economy is driven by export. I believe it is a delibarate attempt by the European Union & the US not to act regarding thier financial issues so that the Chinese economy would slowdown. China is becoming very arrogant . The Chinese are starting to think that they are the next World Super Power. The E.U & the US is trying to tell the Chinese that the reason that China is prospering is because of the US & E.U. consumers. Now that there are less consumers, let's see how China will budget what money they have since less money is coming in due to bad exports. I can already smell a whole lot of bloody riots in the Chinese provinces due to the mass layoff. Goodluck to the the Beijing administration.

    August 4, 2012 at 4:08 am |
  40. /lol

    Who would of thought that making the rest of the world unemployed would mean they lose business because no one has any money to buy their products... short term gain for a long term loss is the model of todays business' and it is destroying the worlds economy.

    August 4, 2012 at 5:12 am |
  41. Layne

    The China phenomenon was created by Western greed, more specifically fast buck artists in the corporate and financial spheres who transferred over US $17 trillion dollars into building up China in just 25 years. We're all aware of the imbalances this created, which was hidden by the West purchasing China's exports and the Chinese financing Western debt. Now however, Western debt is increasing while China's exports are decreasing. In addition, the Chinese have a huge debt problem themselves which is not acknowledged and was serviced by exports. The imbalances have reached a point of non-equilribrium, which will naturally result in a necessary collapse, followed by restrucuring. Chna may be able to keep the lights on in this current cycle for a while longer by forcing a new spurt of lending with printed money, but it will only exacerbate the inevitable crash.

    August 4, 2012 at 5:29 am |
  42. udar

    china's slowdown is influnced by the benifits' assignment between the privileged class and people.if the domestic affordability can be stimulated through salary from private-owned company which pay for most of peole,the privilege class may not be happy.whatever,goverment and all country get the importance of politial reformation which deal with the key barrier.but the in the short future,china face more complication than eurozone.

    August 4, 2012 at 6:44 am |
  43. solomon lim

    Layne – China hasa huge debt problem? Borrowed from whom? Yes, Wstern debts are increasing. China's exports are decreasing – deliberately. Its export growth is still above 8% – a very comfortable level and may soar anytime.
    Wakeupcalltochina – China's economy is driven by export and domestic demand. China is in fact the world's only superpower. The world can scarcely move if China wants it not to. It has about US$3 trillion to play around and a lot of interest to be paid to her every year. It can increase its domestic consumption when the prime minister says so. So, no worry.
    Marie – Shanghai has some pollution. A few other cities have it too. But just imagine a HUGE anti pollution equipment industry is growing in China. It's products will surge unstoppable into the world market. Good for China, isn't it?
    Tharindu – you are mistaken. I find that many, many cities are growing very fast – some too fast. I visited Qingdao. I am still speechless at it very fast growth! On the other hand, Sri Lank is regarded as no growth.

    August 4, 2012 at 7:24 am |
  44. solomon lim

    mbmendo – hohoho, China has no time playing monoply or any other board games. China is fully committed to developing China into the most prosperous, most technological advanced country in the world. It must first make sure all Chinese are gainfully employed, well educated, well housed and healthy. That's what motivates China!
    China does not need to cripple any country. If it wants to, it is simpler and cheaper to just walk in and take over any neighbouring country.
    Many countries are in big trouble because they adopt the Western economic system. They will have to fail be3cause the Americans and the Europeans adopt a borrow, borrow and borrow practice that leads to bankruptcy because they will never be able to pay back now.

    Secondly, China can out-compete any country on any product. How? China has scale of proction, using the most modern manufacturing equipment, has lower cost mass shipment of goods by sea, land and air – China builds its own cargo ships and steel containers cheaper than any country. It already has a huge domestic market that can cushion any fluctuation in world market demand.

    Most killing of all is, China has already established trade with almost all countries in the world, buying their raw materials and agriculture products so that they can pay for goods and services from China. No other country can do that however hard they try. China has the unchallengeable advantage that it has a vibrant Chinese community in almost all (about 105) countries.

    So any collapse of the Western economy will not reform your behaviour and organization as it is unlikely the Chinese will give you such opportunity. That's how China sees the BIG WORLD PICTURE!

    Oil prices – this is a very terrifying topic. If oil prices go up, cost of American and European goods will go up. But cost increase of Chinese goods will be much less because China buys in enormous amounts of oil when the oil prices are low.

    I am afraid China will not be easy on a number of countries which have been shameless sycophants of the Western World. Don't blame the Chinese – they asked for it.

    August 4, 2012 at 8:21 am |
  45. Ramon Galias

    Everybody is trying to dissect and analyze China using a Western microscope. There are two fundamental difference between us. 1) Everything in China is owned and controlled by the government. 2) Chinese people do not believe in God. Put these two elements in your slides and you will see a very different specimen. Something beyond definition by the western examples..

    August 4, 2012 at 8:29 am |
  46. Costa

    So Rest of the world is growing by hardly 2% China in its worst is growing by 6-8% and they have a problem.I dont think that is even close.If China decides that instead of buying US,EU bonds its time to invest those money in the improvement of Social and Wage Policies inside the country, their internal consumption will rise,people will get happier and consume more and the rest of the world will see an increase in the public debt due to higher loan costs.

    August 4, 2012 at 10:00 am |
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    August 4, 2012 at 10:55 am |
  48. dumbchinese

    China is no more. Their products are cheap but no durability...People were already saturated with Chinese junks and will not bepatronized anymore.

    August 4, 2012 at 12:45 pm |
  49. Neo

    The totaly indebted USA is the truth problem for the world economic one more time!

    August 4, 2012 at 2:08 pm |
  50. rvastag

    @AlexM – Where are you from? Why are you visiting China (business? fun?)?

    Things look all rosy in Beijng and Shanghai, but if you were to travel to downtown NYCity or Berlin or Madrid, I bet things would look pretty normal too.

    There's more to the economic health and future of a country than what you see on the surface in one or two major cities.

    August 4, 2012 at 2:14 pm |
  51. rvastag

    Before listening to anything that Investor Mark Mobius, head of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, has to say, everyone should take a look at his investing and prediction track record.

    August 4, 2012 at 2:17 pm |
  52. Well done CHINA!

    China will grow solidly this year, like the past 40 years.

    August 4, 2012 at 2:50 pm |
  53. Jon B

    I'm an American and I've been living in China for 5 years. Yes, businesses are hurting and prices are rising, but China's people are only getting richer. There economy is doing just fine for right now. Maybe within the next 5 to 10 years China will resemble the U.S. and it's current struggle, but for now they are full steam ahead and there aren't many icebergs big enough to cripple this boat just yet.

    August 4, 2012 at 3:39 pm |
  54. Jon B

    I'm an American and I've been living in China for 5 years. Yes, businesses are hurting and prices are rising, but China's people are only getting richer. Their economy is doing just fine for right now. Maybe within the next 5 to 10 years China will resemble the U.S. and its current struggle, but for now they are full steam ahead and there aren't many icebergs big enough to cripple this boat just yet.

    August 4, 2012 at 3:42 pm |
  55. SlowDown is good

    I am the least concerned about any economic slow down or crash in Europe, US, or China. Growth means more consumption and this is not sustainable. We need time for science and technology to catch up so that a better economic development model cen be developed.

    August 4, 2012 at 5:28 pm |
  56. NormanClarR

    Way too big to manage and way too big to fail...

    August 4, 2012 at 11:58 pm |

    China's time is now, evidently.

    August 5, 2012 at 2:18 am |
  58. angkiher

    It is undenieably the world is linked tightly by globalization, slow down for everybody is for sure to happen. But some will be hurt more than the others. Looking at China and in the greater region of East Asia, those countries are either more prepared because they had been in the crises of 1998 earlier, hence, the banking and financial system is better off. Or country like China that has a lot of room for manuvering the economy, like their domestic markets that can be boosted up more, and do not forget, their reserve of trillions dollar always can be used for economic stimulation, meanwhile US and Europe are stuckted and limited by huge leverage and deficit already.

    August 5, 2012 at 3:04 am |
  59. LF_in_China

    One must be in china to understand what is going on.
    I left China ten years ago. When I went back for a visit, I am astonished by how easy it is to make money in China. Chinese consumer is ignorant to brand and quality at best. There are buying groceries at prices higher than I paid in the US and they are buying everything like crazy. They are living a minimum life, so as far as you can keep the price high, you can make money! This will last when China run out of it young works. In like twenty years. Before that, the government and entrepreneurs can still extract a lot of juice. Who will be the next?

    August 5, 2012 at 12:32 pm |

    One way for both China and India to spur economic growth is to open up to each other. There will be unlimited potential when these two economies, totaling two and one half billion people, open to each other. That's over 35% of the world population. The first step should be for India and China to agree to build a double-tracked high-speed rail line between Delhi and Beijing, with construction to begin immediately, with the line to be built to the highest standards. With the opening of the economies to each other, trade and travel would expand exponentially, with millions of new jobs available. The proposed new rail route would soon need to be doubled to four tracks. Additionally, both nations need to open up to the world, and allow retail businesses, including super markets and department stores from other nations to enter and do business on an unlimited basis. Both growing economies would see a large increase in consumer spending, with millions of additional jobs. Strong leadership will allow this!

    August 5, 2012 at 2:53 pm |
  61. sp.

    Chines export may slow down due low demand and drop in currency value worldwide w.r.t, dollar.

    August 5, 2012 at 6:37 pm |
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  63. Sam C.

    It's important to look at local economies over national in China. When you look at cities (I was just in Beijing and Tianjin two week ago) there is decline, but obviously it's much less hard hit than rural. Even as early as 2008 there were local communities that were and now continue to struggle. In several years we can look and see what happens but my prediction is simply that local economies dry up, then the Chinese FED comes in and absorbs the debt and decrease in profits and we'll begin to see China's true stance. Some experts say that local economies are on the verge of collapse, and think of what another poor year agriculturally (especially with the recent flooding in major ag development regions) and look at the fiscal impact of loosing even just 10% of their crops and having to source out even more to countries like the US and Australia which have both seen fraught and troubles (obviously increasing prices dramatically.)

    August 6, 2012 at 5:33 am |
  64. karpet permadani

    You could certainly see your skills in the paintings you write. The sector hopes for even more passionate writers such as you who aren't afraid to mention how they believe. All the time go after your heart.

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  65. Jose

    One always need to be weary of a firm that runs both as a ratings agency, as well as an investment firm. Just like you need to be careful of a double-headed snake – one head presents a threat, while the other one takes a big bite. Strategic. Brilliant.

    Most smart investors always do the opposite to what ratings agencies say. Those smart investors too want to scoop up the wealth left in the wake of any downgrade on the stock market. Yep. Sure. China is going bust. Worse than EU. Sure. Now let's see if I can pick up some bargain basement price stocks after the downgrade of China.

    August 6, 2012 at 7:49 am |
  66. cmmrc

    However, China’s urbanization is nearly as completed as the west. Those factories’ employees are part time workers and part time farmers. Therefore, the meaning of unemployment in China to its economy and workers is very different from that in the U.S.

    August 6, 2012 at 11:53 am |
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  68. reality

    I would say more of a worry for the EU and USA...China would buy less from EU and USA because of the so called downturn which originated from the American banking scams and the myth of the american dream hyped up by
    politicians....I blame the EU and the USA for the cause of this....

    August 6, 2012 at 1:59 pm |
  69. itchy hillary

    all fear generated around china (like the eurozone) is irrational. it serves the purpose to reduce the signal to noise ratio, create confusion and redirect the attention from serious matters. open up for other news channels, listen or read some chinese and russian news to get a clearer picture.

    August 6, 2012 at 10:32 pm |
  70. John Alber

    Unnecessary to worry China, their situation is still the best one on the world. Just care American economy, how many people without jobs??????

    August 7, 2012 at 3:12 am |
  71. someday_reid

    what a impressive picture showing in this article, maybe we can say the pic is interesting.
    a peasant with a plane especially the peasant is pulling the human excrement to the crops
    how can CNN get this incredible pic, i guess it must spend a lot of time to find this kind of pic
    most impressive, good job CNN!

    August 7, 2012 at 10:12 am |
  72. ARayofSun

    Chinese economy is not landing, but gliding after a long time taking-off and soaring into the sky. The whole country is going through a systematic and deep restructuring across the whole band from economy to life, culture and politics. When changing and adjusting, it is better to keep some lower speed like driving a car. The slowdown in economy is both reacting to the worldwide environment and guided by the central government's plan.

    August 7, 2012 at 10:25 am |
  73. Jamshed whom it may concern:

    Do not worry.

    A European communication platform for the professional associations is missing!

    In order to stabilize Europe and to enable a fair coexisting, it might not be of detriment to set up new information superhighway between politics, the professions and the public, as well as between and within professional organizations in the European partner organizations?

    Thus, we know just who exploits the system self-serving.

    Entry and exit points of ‘power’ – not just money – can be seen more easily when they are standardized.
    There are infinitely more good things to do than to feel sorry for a coalition of non-delegates. What about the people in their professions, and how it looks at their prospects in the growing democratic structures?

    So far, we cannot perceive you in your professions.
    Only the people in their professions can form Europe.

    In close cooperation and handshake with the other chamber professionals! ^^

    How can such a thing – so wonderful and new – be initialfired, understandable for us all, without breaking it?

    I alone will not make it ...
    lets empower Europe together ;-)

    August 7, 2012 at 1:04 pm |
  74. elion

    too many problems about China's economy, the biggest crisis is the bubble of the realestate industry, if this will be solved, the China's ecomony will be back the it's normal way, i will talk here

    August 10, 2012 at 3:38 am |


    August 10, 2012 at 11:21 am |
  76. Max

    There are too many variables involved here and what I saw in the article is a one sided oversimplified opinion of what is really going on. Of course China is going to suffer because of the slow down in western markets; however, it is also true that in the last decade they have been able to develop their internal market which we all know is huge. When you put together a slow down (not a dramatic stop) in the economical pace on most critical markets in the world; and yo add to this the growing internal consumption; plus development of new markets that are actually booming (Africa, east Europe, certain parts of the middle east) my humble conclusion is that although we might see a drop in growth in China; don't expect a crash of the market. On top of all this another advantage that was mentioned by one of the contributors of this discussion is that Chinese economical system where decision lies on a few group of people makes it way more effective in dealing with problems and solutions, than the ones we have on the western hemisphere.

    August 10, 2012 at 7:12 pm |
  77. Sudarshan

    Nepal is one of the smallest ... poorest... and neighbor country to China .... We never fill like Chinese and Indian economies are falling ... rather they are growing so fast .. that we hope .... the trend will bring positive impacts to country like ours too ... where there's abundance of resources ( hydro power ; tourism – Mt. Everest .... Birth place of lord Buddha and so many natural and world heritages; dense forests – medicinal herbs ; favorable climate – agro products ; and its friendly and hospitable human resource ) to invest on for the foreign investors from China , India and the whole other world . China has also involved in the development of many infrastructures in Nepal ... and so many other developing and least developed nations ... So conclusively ... China's economy is growing ... and responsibly growing all Asia !

    August 12, 2012 at 1:52 am |
  78. Kettl

    Read your comment. DEBT OF CHINA:
    China is sitting on a barrel of Dynamite. Why: only 1 or 2 examples....
    They have hidden debts for the whole generation which bought and buying houses at all costs. Immagine, you buying a house for 350.000 USD with debt of 70%= 260.000 $. This 30% down payment is financed by your parents, your wife's parents and eventually grandparents which supporting you. So, now you and your family is burned ou of cash of course.
    Your income is optimistically 1000 $/month. So payback 600$/ month= 40-50 years payback. Let's be optimistic and it's just 35 years. So the government, as it takes most of the profit, as the house net value might be just 50.000 $, as the property is owned by the government......
    So: now you understand the wealth of the Chinese gvmt. By down payment of 30% the gvmt and construction firm costs are covered. HIDDEN TAX. The problem here is: by making this profit, you loosing a consumer, the profit=hidden tax will be spent right away. It works, unless the Ecconomy overall is healthy. A problem as we had 4years ago, this time China would not survive. As this hidden tax will dry out at once. Many young people don't find jobs, those have jobs and loosing it, will loose everything see "housing market in US". So, china ca play the game until Chinese people will change their habit, not being so stupid and paying a lifetime for something they theoretically have to return to their gvmt after 60 years or so.
    On the other hand , chinas population growth is 10 mill /year for the next 20 years. This means theoretically 4-5 million households more annually......that's 4 big cities/year. 5 million times 350 k= 1750 trillion. And this 30% downpayment is 525 trillion money generated by housing. This includes all they need from cofe pot to TV sets...
    So, not talking about the resources needed for that which china has to import...and this needs CASH. No cash=crash. But we talking about a crash which would disperse china into cluster villages for a long time.
    As long as there is no hard landing the gvmt sucks the blood out of their slaves and they will do more than fine. No debts to the outside world needed, hahahaha.
    The second issue is: political......but this a hot iron and I don't want to touch this
    I am living in China since 9 years....

    solomon lim
    Layne – China hasa huge debt problem? Borrowed from whom? Yes, Wstern debts are increasing. China's exports are decreasing – deliberately. Its export growth is still above 8% – a very comfortable level and may soar anytime.
    Wakeupcalltochina – China's economy is driven by export and domestic demand. China is in fact the world's only superpower. The world can scarcely move if China wants it not to. It has about US$3 trillion to play around and a lot of interest to be paid to her every year. It can increase its domestic consumption when the prime minister says so. So, no worry.
    Marie – Shanghai has some pollution. A few other cities have it too. But just imagine a HUGE anti pollution equipment industry is growing in China. It's products will surge unstoppable into the world market. Good for China, isn't it?
    Tharindu – you are mistaken. I find that many, many cities are growing very fast – some too fast. I visited Qingdao. I am still speechless at it very fast growth! On the other hand, Sri Lank is regarded as no growth.

    August 4, 2012 at 7:24 am |

    August 12, 2012 at 5:40 am |
  79. Robert

    I am a Chinese student who never go abroad. You western people didn't understand!!! For us, the development of economy isn't the first thing we care about. Now many Chinese people and officials understand the economy adjustment is most important.
    As you western people said, Chinese economy is imbalanced. We export too much but consume too little. So, we must convert the exporting factories to the domestic selling factories. Encouraging them to design commodities fitting eastern people.
    During the 20 years past. Our society development and law drafting didn't keep pace with our economy development. Because the last one goes too fast. And that leads to many society problems. For example ,the rich people get too much and common people get too little. Now that we have slowed down, it's the time to correct this mistake. For example, the government has proposed the businessman to increase the minimum wage even if that means many factories may leave China.
    We have too many labor intensive factories such as clothes making and shoes making. And too many factories pollute too much, such as little rare earth producing factories. So it's very important to update our industry. Some polluting factories should be closed and high technology high margin industry should be encouraged.

    For us, the 6%~8% per year development rate of our economy now is totally acceptable. Now that we have been in the "slide down", To make the economy healthier should be the thing we have time to pay attention to now. And in this way, the "slide down" may become a ggood thing.

    August 12, 2012 at 1:17 pm |
  80. drnu8p2w

    We are in one world, we are connected.
    Once Chinese economy hurt, world economy hurt too. Someone maybe can get benefits from the changes.

    August 13, 2012 at 1:28 pm |
  81. PhilHal

    The bubbles could be seen inflating for many years , the warnings given by the simple people that if you keep raping the land ( the economy ) and the few who have control never give back or fertilise and replant , then there is nothing to harvest for the many . Look no further than yourselves for you allowed the Greedy to get control and willingly sold your souls to them . All the BIG HEROES and all the Big $$ people bought you for a few shekels . Now you weep !!
    The bubbles have burst , there is nothing to service the credit and the loans you foolishly gave your souls for , now you pay the price .
    Where is Bill Gates and all the others who bought you body and soul ?
    Laughing there ASSES OFF and sailing around the world in supreme comfort ,. Thay will not give back nor will they replant , you will have to wait for the heavens to pass away before they give 2 cents .
    You laughed at those who worked hard , didnt cheat , paid what they owed and rarely ever borrowed , but they were conservative because they knew you cant keep servicing a debt by borrowing more than you can repay . Very simple stuff .
    Now history will repeat itself and the wealthy will fear you , because they know how desperate you will become , just like the past , but far worse . Now you face the dreadful prospect of a defeated Nation of greedy war mongers trying to find the way out of a recession by staring another war , Just as in the past they used wars and blamed others , they will try to do it again . LETS HOPE THEY FAIL AND YOU ARE NOT DESPERATE ENOUGH TO GO TO WAR FOR THEM !!

    August 13, 2012 at 3:27 pm |
  82. guigui

    i just want to say :if you are not CHINESE,you will never know what CHINA is .

    August 13, 2012 at 3:40 pm |
  83. robert zhu

    yes, people may say there is freedom or free election in China, but the system as there working for the past 30 years is very good and effective. during asia financial crisis, it is China saved the world from collapse. Then in the crisis following u.s. financial crisis, it is China saved the world. Now euro crisis, who has the ability to save? The answer is China. If you never live in China you will never understand why. Because MBA in American collages will never teach you what is there deeply inside the head of the wakening dragon. They have a goal, the only goal ; top the world.

    August 15, 2012 at 3:38 pm |
  84. joeliu58

    China is going thought a hard landing. All major corporations are lossing profit growth. China rail is in default with 1/4 bank loans. All banks in Zhejiang are in default. Chinese local governments guarantteed 10 trillion YMB loans (outside of 4 trillion YMB stimulus) which may go into defaults. Inflation is 200% for the last 5 years. Wage rate increas is 20% per year. The government wants the wage to match American wage in 5 years. Ha! Ha!All small business are going to file bankrupt by years end. Including my export company/jfactory in China.

    August 16, 2012 at 2:48 am |
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  86. Panda Bear

    I know China and the World economy.Previously, (back in 2008) I told my mother that the world economy will collapse in 10 years, So the next collapse will be China's turn, You don't need to listen to economic figures when you are dead.

    August 18, 2012 at 2:39 pm |
  87. Henry

    As a Chinese myself, I am having a stronger feeling that China is in trouble, very serious trouble. I can feel the economy (perhaps not just the economy) going down every single day. And, I don’t think these problems can be resolved by implementing pure economy saving measures. The root cause to this crisis lies in the system itself. Yes, that’s right, the system. The POLITICAL system itself. I’m not insane. Nor am I a fanatic democracy seeker. What I am saying is, the dictatorship style of political ruling has nurtured millions of privileged people, who simply outlaw the whole society. They don’t have to work yet the luxury of their lives is far beyond the imagination of normal citizens. Those privileged people form groups of their own interests and seek all kinds of measures to secure their positions and possessions. The whole society pays for it. Without a rational system, there is simply no way for a normal citizen, like me, to change anything.

    August 18, 2012 at 5:05 pm |
  88. OYang


    August 20, 2012 at 3:15 am |
  89. paul martin expat Welsh foreign correspomdent

    china's economy is a boom facade ! A handful of chinese made it BIG ! The vast majority didn't !

    Bottom line folks.......unlike the US, the World's largest economy, china depends on foreign export and manufacturing other countries products,etc. I thought sending American and other Western jobs east was treacherous to say the least and I firmly believe America will eventually elect people who'll find ways to turn this aspect around !

    August 20, 2012 at 11:34 am |
  90. mike

    finally we some countries that can stand against the bullying of the WEST and the EUROPEANS. Keep up the good work China, India, Brasil and the asian countires.

    August 21, 2012 at 2:56 am |
  91. Andrew

    over the last year China's GDP growth fell from 10% to 9.1% big whoop. they're still doing awesome; all this talk over China's slowdown is just more media doom & gloom to get ratings.

    August 21, 2012 at 4:32 am |
  92. peter s

    what is new CNN ? Come on are you running out of stories to write?
    We are all worldly and know what is happening.
    We all knew from the start in our so called civilized west that the cheap LANDFILL that we buy will one day catch up and China will not be able to sell this rubbish at a point when we can no longer purchase or no longer need it.
    And China will have real trouble getting its citizens to spend money to stimulate their internal economy.
    Why ? They save too much.
    Imagine a world where we dig up resources make crap ship the crap around the world put it in a shop buy it and 6 weeks later it breaks and then put it in the rubbish and then back into the earth in the form of LANDFILL.
    Sad .......

    August 21, 2012 at 11:50 am |
  93. Panda Bear

    There's no point to believe in the government's economic figures, it's fake.
    Debt is the real problem.
    What's the meaning of driving a 10% growth with 500% debt? The economy is doomed.

    August 21, 2012 at 11:15 pm |
  94. Panda Bear

    And all the debt money from the debt bubble go directly to the corrupted market manipulators, common citizens's salaries are shrinking due to inflation

    August 21, 2012 at 11:17 pm |
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  96. xiaozhuhu

    I come from China,too.We try our best to make our country stronger and stronger,richer and richer.I cannot understand why so many people from the western countries say that China didn't do anything.Policy is serious and cruelhearted.China is not seen as before.We have our own tradition and opinions.We should protect our own benefits.We will help some countries with no cost.Is there any mistakes?

    August 23, 2012 at 4:40 pm |
  97. Don Chee

    To access China, you need to understand her culture and history. Please do that and travel to China before you comment.

    August 23, 2012 at 9:27 pm |
  98. HenvaHo

    If you are not Chinese, if you don't grow up in China, you can't understand Chinese, we love China, we also hate China, but we still believe that China will be stronger and stronger.

    August 24, 2012 at 9:15 am |
  99. Aristocles

    The fact that so much merchandise is piling up in China completely undermines the notion that the Chinese middle and upper "consumer classes" are growing, for if those groups were growing in size, importance, and purchasing power, they would be able to absorb these goods.

    August 24, 2012 at 11:58 am |
  100. Panda Bear

    China is now having a new Great Leap Forward – to hell. With wide spread global corruption, human over-population and market manipulation, China is likely to resort to Cannibalism eventually

    August 25, 2012 at 3:05 am |
  101. Naploen Bonapart

    robert zhu, you are right but by saying " ..Because MBA in American collages will never teach you what is there deeply inside the head of the wakening dragon. They have a goal, the only goal ; top the world."

    I would like to add that, yes, we Chinese have only one goal ; top of the world, as in 4,800 years of the last 5,000 year. Napoleon understood that 200 year ago.

    August 25, 2012 at 7:45 am |
  102. Trevor Toivonen

    China could not sustain it's growth rate of seven to nine percent of their annual GDP. The question in most of our minds must have been, when was this bubble going to explode. The question in my mind has now been answered.

    August 26, 2012 at 7:40 am |
  103. Matt Antonelli

    China should focus on consuming not only producing but with $7000 income per capital per year this isn't gonna happen soon

    August 26, 2012 at 12:41 pm |
  104. paul martin

    I try to be an opened minded writer...but if y'all think china is a problem ain't seen nothin yet folks ! give em a little more time the it'll get much worse !

    August 27, 2012 at 10:26 am |
  105. derek


    Migen Bora

    We must not forget that China is a dictatorship state. People there are not free (they don`t even know how freedom is like).
    They are ruled by their communist government with brutality and classic dictatorship methods.
    Now , China may have some economic results ,but they come from underpaid workforce and by not having the costs that Western Countries have (health care,RD etc).
    It cannot hold forever , one day it will collapse (like the Soviet Union).
    Just ask your self how many Chinese people would accept willingly to have only one child or a pay of few dollars, or not to have the right to travel freely (even in their country) , or not to have the right to criticize their government , etc etc.
    It cannot hold on for longer.

    August 28, 2012 at 12:44 pm |
  106. derek

    Soviet union was what is actually describes .. A union of soviet countries of different nationalities and languages controlled by moscow .. China is china with one time zone and one official language and the simplified writing system of chinese characters advocated by the beijing government. There are several ethnic languages but mandarin is taught in schools . Foreigners as well as chinese travel freely in china and there is a network of youth hostels which from what i have seen better than in europe and a lot cheaper .The one child policy is not followed strictly and anyone having more than one child pays a one off fine . The one child policy is considered a good policy by many chinese because it has stabilised the population at 1.2 billion whereas chinese predict it could have increased to 1.5 without the policy .. Chinese cannot criticise their government neither can Bradley Manning ...Salaries in factories are low but a lot more that the rural workers would receive working in farming communities . Factory workers are housed in work units either very cheaplly or free so their whole salary is mostly disposable . Wealthier chinese can get student visas easily to study abroad where western 'democracies' welcome them with open arms and rip then off excessively with tuition fees .Chinese has rapidly expanding infrastruture, modern cities and modern shopping centres it wont be long before it takes over from the shameful useless lazy western economies who are dogged by over regulation and bureaucracy .

    August 28, 2012 at 1:18 pm |
  107. Claudio...

    Hi Respectable CNN, Dear Mr. Kevin Voigt, i don't know about You Folks but this global slow down in other parts of the world like China and India and so on, surely sounds like great news at least for the Environment. I believe this will surely be helpfull for Us All in the long run, along with a good amount of Faith, thanks.

    August 28, 2012 at 11:10 pm |
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  110. Saurabh Prakash

    There is no reason to presume that China will be spared the economic troubles that afflict its clients in Europe and the US. When its order books dry up it is natural that its economy would slow down as well. It could carry on for some time on its own consumption and by selling goods cheap outside (because of huge surpluses) but not very long. If there is moderate growth for this period then they may be able to wait this period out. However, if at any point there is a downturn then it may well happen that another revolution might sweep through China bringing the present dispensation down. There is no reason to believe that while this can happen in country after country in the middle East that it cannot happen in China. and when it happens there it deeply will impact the world. Given their strong reliance on China for their manufacturing it is high time that Europe and the US looked at other options. It is a bad time to be doing that but they may have few other options. Not being prepared for this eventuality may prove disastrous.

    September 10, 2012 at 12:09 pm |
  111. onlythreemiles

    America has been blessed beyond anything the rest of the world will ever experience. In many ways our blessings will hurt because it is hard to go back when you have been so blessed. Unfortunately, for the rest of the world, they will not be able to enjoy many of the luxuries (really just basic necessities in America, but luxuries to most) that Americans have come to expect. I will address China but you can do the math for any other country by Googling comparative GDPs, or Purchasing power parity or Currency account balances or resouce allocations.

    China has experienced phenomenal growth since the removal of Mao. With the available labor and internal resources and complete control ot the masses it has been easy. This is now going to change for many reasons. The current account of $3 trillion is less than $2,200 per person in China, relatively small. For China to acquire the same GDP in $ terms on a per capita basis they would have to have access to all of the world's resources, not attainable. China has 4.33 times as many people as the US and uses 6 million barrels of oil a day, up from less than 2 million in 1980, the US consumes 19 million. For the rest of the world to use oil at the US level, 400 million barrels of oil would have to be pumped. Conversion of energy to work and real productivity is one of the most significant factors that determine standard of living. The US produces an equivalent amount in $ terms as China in Manufacturing and uses 10% of the amount of labor, both around $1 trillion.

    It is a mistake to extol the virtues of a command and control system by the few from an efficiency view. If you only produce 1 car in a year and 2 the next you have grown 100%, but if you produce 1 million cars and increase 10,000 more the next year you have only grown 1%. Who really grew more? It is easy to skew the numbers. That is why ultimately China will peak and devolution will occur. When too few make all of the key decisions, there is no hybrid vigor, especially since they are all old men with math, science and Eng backgrounds. It is easy to grow when you are immature but as they begin to bump up against exposed social issues and the maturing of industries, then the weaknesses will become clearer,

    Once Pandora has been let out of the box and a taste of capitalism has been provided, it changes the game completely. Without the freedom of debate, free exchange of ideas and a well established transparent set of accounting standards and laws the system will come apart. With the advent of electronic intercourse and the rapid exposure of what is really happening, it is only a matter of time before the masses realize the true disparity of wealth and China begins the terrible process of devolution.

    On a more global scale, the atmosphere is really only 3 miles thick that we live in. CO2 levels have increased 40% in the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution, for 280 PPM to 392 PPM. Since the atmosphere is global and not contained within the national boundaries this will be the most significant challenge for all nations going forward. How can the world's economies continue to grow when conversion of energy to work is required if real growth is to occur? This is unsustainable and will be the next global event that will create a challenge the world's nations are not prepared to address.

    September 10, 2012 at 7:00 pm |
  112. tsering

    i think china will have a hard landing.... many of the investors are now pulling back... because... lack of transparency and and untrustworthy.. and huge risk of getting turn oil ... in 2 to 3 years....

    September 11, 2012 at 8:56 pm |
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