LONDON, England – Those fretting about a substantial downturn in the U.S. economy, need not worry. At least that’s the way Ben Bernanke sees it.

Bernanke thinks the risk of a “substantial downturn” has receded in the past month. The Fed chairman thinks that past rate cuts, Federal tax rebates, and record exports will be enough to keep the economy from any a sharp nosedive.

He’s not alone in his view. More than half of 48 private economists surveyed do not believe the U.S. economy is in or will enter a recession this year, that compares to 40 percent a month ago.

“The consensus now suggests the downturn in economic growth will be less steep than earlier feared, but the subsequent recovery to growth to its trend rate will take longer than hoped a few months ago,” according to Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

Here’s the breakdown. Third quarter growth at 1.5 percent, and fourth quarter at 1.2 percent. That’s weaker growth than previously forecast, but still not a recession in their books.

But for 2009, the group of economists think U.S. growth will be 1.9 percent, that’s the sixth month in a row that expectations have been ratcheted down.

As for inflation, they think it will average just 2.6 percent next year, compared to nearly 4 percent this year.

The group of economists also think the fed is done cutting interest rates which now stand at 2 percent, compared to 5.25 percent last September.

As to when the Fed raises interest rates, they think that won’t happen until second quarter of next year.

These guys get paid for a living to make predictions about the economy and interest rates.

Even if they and Mr. Bernanke end up being right, and the U.S. avoids a substantial downturn, it won’t feel like that to many Americans who are facing a fall in real wages, falling house prices, higher food bills, and record gasoline prices.

To them it feels like a recession, and in my book, that’s all that matters.

Tell me what you think.

LONDON, England – Let’s get away my steady diet of doom and gloom and talk about something else. Bribing kids, in this particular case, kids who are obese. Forget educating your kid about nutrition. Cold hard cash works best.

Should obese children be offered cash rewards to lose weight?

Yes

No

or see results

Scientists in Switzerland gathered data on more than 100 families. The families had at least one obese adult and one obese child. They had to follow one of four programs including motivational letters and different diets.

The final option was cold hard cash, bribing the kid — five euros for every kilogram they lost, and five euros each time they improved their body mass index score.

In the words of Professor Claus Luley: “We found that giving the money works in children. They were certainly eager to get their hands on the money.”

Now this little experiment got me thinking about the ethic of bribing kids to get them to do something.

Is it right for children to expect some sort of monetary or other material reward for doing something well? Or should a parent try and instill a sense doing something for its own sake, and that in itself is a reward?

In the financial world, bankers, traders, and others get performance related bonuses. So do sports stars, and people in sales.

So why shouldn’t a kid get a type of performance related bonus? What’s wrong with giving your kids money if they get good grades, or lose weight, keep their room clean, or whatever you deem is important?

Do such incentives for children teach them the wrong values, or is it really just a reflection of the way much of the world operates? In certain instances, I don’t have a problem with it.

I look forward to hearing from you, tell me whether you agree or disagree.