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September 27, 2009
Posted: 1224 GMT
LONDON, England - When it comes to the number three, there are two conflicting philosophies: The first says everything comes in threes, the second says third time lucky (or unlucky.) This weekend the G-20 leaders have been meeting for their third meeting in a year.
G-20 leaders are all smiles, but for how much longer will the unity last.
For an organization that had never met before at heads of state or government level, this is something of an achievement. But then rarely have they had to ride to the rescue of the global economy that was about to collapse. Twice before when they met, they agreed to halt the blame game of how we got into this mess. They worked together to get us out of it. This was no mean feat since it involves countries from communist China to capitalist America and all shades of political persuasion in-between. Their ability to coordinate and cooperate has been noted time and again as one of the great advances in summitry. In Washington last October, they ignored the fact President George W. Bush would be out of office within months and built a plan, calling it "The Washington Action Plan." By the London meeting at the beginning of this year, trillions of dollars had been spent and the leaders met to coordinate how their posh-sounding plan was performing. They tinkered and tweaked and gave some more money to the IMF and carried on cooperating. They didn’t have any other choice. Now, with Asia decoupled from U.S. and European growth, what next? Everyone agrees it is too soon to take away the stimulus that is keeping developed economies afloat. Everyone agrees that they will have to coordinate their exit strategies when that time arrives. Oh yes, they even agree banks need to have some strict reform of the rules (and, yes, that includes big bad bonuses.) This is all done on the basis that "we are not letting this happen again." But the issue is whether they can keep agreeing. France, for instance, is keener on stricter regulatory reform than, say, the UK. Britain has much to lose if Europe’s financial headquarters, the City of London, becomes over-regulated. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told me that restricting bankers’ bonuses was a symbolic way of proving no more business as usual. Only by imposing discipline and regulatory systems could we reign in the financial world, she said. Such a view of course, is very much at odds with what might be expressed in Washington. The G-20 now finds itself rather like a group of passengers who have just been rescued from a sinking ocean liner. When facing disaster, all classes from captain’s table to steerage, share laughter, friendship and love. Now as the good will of rescue starts to disappear, old rivalries resurface and political ideologies put to one side are restored. Which brings me back to my first point. Can the G-20 hold it together for a third time? They probably will, simply because this crisis is not over yet. Longer term, as the G-20 presidency passes from the UK to South Korea, the axis of power shifts. Well, I have more doubts. Crises breed cooperation. Recovery may well breed resentment. Even if the third summit works, don’t bank on success for the fourth and beyond. Posted by: CNN business anchor, Richard Quest January 29, 2009
Posted: 1132 GMT
If Angelina or Brad had been at Davos this year, they would have been given the treatment ‘Royal celebs' deserve. But they are not here, so in the absence of glitz we have to find other ‘stars' to hang onto. Thankfully there are plenty of alternative delegates worthy of our attention. For instance, economists like Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley Asia and Joseph Stiglitz formerly of the World Bank. Not heard of them? Not hanging on to their every utterance? Tut tut. No wonder you're in this mess! These men may not have the good looks or dashing manner of Hollywood stars, but here at Davos this year they are ‘rock stars' in their own right. When they walk through the hallways they are feted. Crowds gather to hear the words from their lips. A private chat with one or the other is economic nirvana. Just this morning as I walked through the lobby, there was Roach holding court; cameras recording his words, journalists jostling to hear his view on how bad things would get. For some time both men have been forecasting the horrible financial disaster we now face and were sneered at. They said it was going to get worse...and it did. And now at Davos both men can look us in the face and say "told you so." Neither is actually saying that of course. Instead they are putting forward ideas and solutions to get us out of the mess. What worries me is Roach and Stiglitz are saying the plans on the table won't work, from stimulus packages, to co-ordination, to regulatory reform – they claim more needs to be done. We have ignored these economic rock stars before, to our cost. Let's not make THAT mistake again. Tune in to CNN International each evening at 1900 GMT to catch Richard's new show, ‘Quest Means Business'. For more coverage of this year’s World Economic Forum, go to our special Davos page. Posted by: CNN Anchor and Correspondent, Richard Quest January 28, 2009
Posted: 1309 GMT
DAVOS, Switzerland - I often ask myself why do I bother to come here? Then I remember, I am here as a journalist covering what the leaders say and do. But why do so many delegates, who have a choice, come here? Surely they would be better off tending to their business back home?
Ordinary delegates say they want to hear what world leaders say about crisis.
This morning I got the official schedule. Some of the sessions are extremely timely and relevant. The "Brainstorm - What happened to the Global Economy?" panel promises to be good. But other sessions, like "What is Good Design?" or "Political Art: What Now?" while interesting in an esoteric way, are hardly vital at this time of crisis. In the registration hall I asked "ordinary" delegates why they came. Not the high and mighty - just mid-level executives and officials who make up the bulk of Davos. Some said they wanted to hear world leaders and decision makers talk about the best way out of the financial mess (after all Vladmir Putin, Angela Merkel, Gordon Brown Wen Jiabao are all scheduled to speak). Others come to continue their dialogue with clients and suppliers and discuss what they need to do next. Representatives from NGOs and aid groups like UNICEF attend, to make sure their causes are not forgotten in this moment of crisis. One lucky businessman is here to talk to investors in medical research - yes, there are still some people with money to invest. Lots of delegates have been coming to Davos for many years - this event is part of their calendar. Just as you don't stop going to visit relatives at Christmas, so you still come to Davos in a crisis; even more so, they would say. Perhaps the real reason to be here is summed up by the delegate from Asia who said "opportunity is the opposite of crisis." Quite! Tune in to CNN International each evening at 1900 GMT to catch Richard’s new show, ‘Quest Means Business.’ For more coverage of this year’s World Economic Forum, go to our special Davos page. Posted by: CNN Anchor and Correspondent, Richard Quest January 27, 2009
Posted: 1141 GMT
If we needed reminding why this week's World Economic Forum is important, look at the pages of any newspaper: job losses, bank write downs, economic collapse and no end in sight. In previous years at Davos there has been the feeling that the delegates have been deciding the best way to improve the world; rarely tempered by doubts of failure or mistake. Now the errors, the failures, the disasters of decision making are as evident as the mountain itself. So this year when some delegates sound off about what must be done, they might be met with, "You got us into this mess in the first place." Klaus Schwab the founder of the WEF recognises this, telling me this year's forum will be "...more modest. People see that they have failed to a certain extent as leaders. Even in Davos ...nobody was really listening." Which begs the question why we are bothering to listen to these people again? Simple. They are the ones who have to get us out of the mess. Schwab points out "take the bankers, they are part of the problem but they are also part of the solution so that's the reason we still integrate them here. " Klaus Schwab agreed that there had to be more humility at this years forum. Ultimately he admits that means hearing bankers and leaders say "sorry." Tune in to CNN International each evening at 1900 GMT to catch Richard's new show, 'Quest Means Business.' For more coverage of this year’s World Economic Forum, go to our special Davos page. Posted by: CNN Anchor and Correspondent, Richard Quest January 26, 2009
Posted: 1142 GMT
DAVOS, Switzerland - I like to arrive in Davos a few days before the World Economic Forum begins when I can experience the picturesque Swiss town without the thousands of delegates. During the Davos week, getting a hotel room here is impossible. Many stay in apartments, or worse, in nearby towns (oh the shame of it!). This year I made a bit of Quest Personal History (QPH)! I am so early I am the only person staying in my hotel. The existing guests checked out (a group of German skiers) and the manager asked me what time I wanted him to come in to make my breakfast, since I am the only person here. In all my years of travel for CNN Business Traveller, I have stayed in big hotels, small hotels, grand hotels, shocking hotels… but I have never been the ONLY guest staying in a hotel. By this evening, other early birders will have arrived and I shall have to ‘share’ my hotel! In the days ahead I shall write about the issues at Davos. Until then I shall enjoy another moment of QPH… today I will ski! I know of no real research into this, but delegates always ask each other, “have you ever actually skied during Davos?” The answer is usually long and rambling about why best intentions have been thwarted; panels, meetings, lunches “got in the way." This year I will get up the mountain, then when the question is asked I can be very smug and say “of course I have skied, oh, and I even had the hotel to myself!” Hotels and skiing… this is indeed going to be an historic Davos meeting! Tune in to CNN International each evening at 1900 GMT to catch Richard’s new show, Quest Means Business. For more coverage of this year's World Economic Forum, go to our special Davos page. Posted by: CNN Anchor and Correspondent, Richard Quest November 21, 2008
Posted: 1435 GMT
Ever wondered why we are so worried about falling prices? And how worrying about them can become part of the problem?
Can a simple sofa lead to bigger problems?
Let me offer my own, real experience: I was going to buy a new sofa this month. I have found the one I like in the color I want I suddenly realized: Hey, prices are falling. I can make do with my old one until the replacement becomes cheaper, or I will buy it in the January sales, when I might get a bargain. So this month I haven't bought the sofa. The shop didn't get the sale. The factory didn't get the order. The same may happen next month, and the month after. Certainly I want a new sofa, but I don't want to find the same chair cheaper in a month or two's time. Of course, by this time the economy will have worsened and I may be more concerned about saving for even worse times ahead - at this rate, the dratted sofa may not get bought until next summer. Multiply my decision by everyone else and you see how the economic crises - coupled with falling prices - is disastrous. Now tell me, what changes in shopping or economc decisions have YOU made that, if multiplied, will have a major effect? What purchases are you putting off? What vacations are you not taking, and what home improvements have you delayed? Let me know, so we can truly see the size and scale of this problem. Watch Jasmine Birtles of Money Magpie.com answer your questions and comments. Posted by: CNN business correspondent, Richard Quest November 17, 2008
Posted: 801 GMT
WASHINGTON D.C. –- It was always going to be tough meeting the expectations at the G20 on Saturday. Talk of Bretton Woods II before the meeting inevitably raised hopes that would be near impossible to fulfil. The fact that 20 nations, representing 90 percent of the global economy were present, merely gave the cynics cause to say nothing could get done - even President Bush admitted as much in his closing statement. Everyone expected an anodyne declaration giving something to everyone; thus nothing to anyone. But the 10-page declaration proved us all wrong. It is considered, detailed and, yes, it sets out short and medium term goals for the G20. Let’s remember the salient points: fiscal and monetary stimulus from those nations who can; immediate reform of accounting rules to conform to a global standard; new regulations for derivative markets and better early warning of crises; reform of the IMF and World Bank adding weight for the developing world; and a college of supervisors for cross-border investment companies. These are not just platitudes. They mean business. Why? Because from what I can see the world leaders are angry and frustrated. Despite the cynics, most leaders go into politics to do some good. They don’t want to spend billions of dollars bailing out banks which should be building hospitals, roads and making life better for the electorate. They are furious that they’re stuck with the worst financial crisis in decades and they’re going to wreak revenge on those behind it. However, there is an overriding hypocrisy that I found too much to take. In defining the causes the declaration says “policy makers, regulators and supervisors in some advanced countries did not adequately appreciate and address the risks.” Policy makers? Some advanced countries? Surely not George Bush, who has been president for eight years? Or Gordon Brown who was Britain’s finance minister for over a decade and is now prime minister? Even Nicolas Sarkozy was France’s finance minister in 2005! The list of the complicit runs much deeper once you take into account officials in finance ministries and central banks who are still in office. This is a breathtaking case of “someone was to blame” for the crash, conveniently forgetting they were the people either at the wheel or reading the map. All I wanted to hear was one word: just one. Sorry. My Question: Did the G20 actually make a difference? Or alternatively: Have the guilty politicians got away with the biggest financial swindle of our time? Watch The Economist's Philip Coggan answer your questions Posted by: CNN business correspondent, Richard Quest November 15, 2008
Posted: 722 GMT
WASHINGTON D.C. – You can tell a lot from the wines people drink. Tonight’s wines at the White House for instance, and those at the G20 get-together in Washington. We are facing the first global recession since World War II. Trillions of dollars are being spent bailing out banks. Jobs are disappearing at a distressing speed. Christmas parties are being canceled left and right. Some might raise an eyebrow at the main wine being offered tonight at the White House dinner of welcome. The Shafer Cabernet Hillside Select 2003 is described as one of the world's most profound Cabernets – and it is not cheap. Costing up to $499 per bottle, this is not a wine for the ordinary palate. In the spirit of the evening (not harping about the cost), I take the descriptions of tonight’s wines and apply them to the G20 summit. The summit meetings, like the Landmark Chardonnay "Damaris Reserve" 2006 being served with the first course, will be full of "nuttiness." The summit will have moments of "sparkling" discussion between the leaders to go with the Chardonnay Rose toast wine, which will lead to "delicately balancing bold" positions with "subtlety." There will be some leaders who will prove themselves to be "extremely versatile." Finally, like the extremely expensive Cabernet, whatever happens this weekend we can be sure we will be enjoying the results — "lasting up to 25 years." We are guaranteed a "complex, ripe and long finish." Posted by: CNN business correspondent, Richard Quest October 10, 2008
Posted: 1704 GMT
LONDON, England – The following is best sung to the tune of "Teddy Bears' Picnic"... If you go down to Wall Street today you're sure of a big surprise If you go down to the City today you'd better go in disguise For this was the week When everything fell From stocks and bonds and everything else For this was the week those terrible bears had their picnic (Please feel free to add your own verses...) Posted by: CNN business anchor, Richard Quest Posted: 1501 GMT
LONDON, England - I have just heard the UK finance minister Alistair Darling being interviewed by my colleague Adrian Finighan.
Darling did the age-old shriek of "something must be done" but, in a unique departure for politician, he accepted that he is part of the group that has to do something about it. Of course he will be attending this weekend's G7 meeting in a strong position, having announced a £500 billion package that included part nationalizing Britain's banks, guaranteeing interbank lending and injecting more liquidity into the system. His bailout has been well received by the financial world and experts alike. In the naughty classroom of finance ministers he can turn round and say: "My hands are clean." Darling even admitted that he has been saying he would do "whatever needs to be done." Even he now realizes its time to stop the talking and do something. But this shriek of "something must be done" is a bit disingenuous. It is 12 months since the credit markets first seized up, and we are only now getting macro economic policy responses on a co-ordinated scale. Better late than never - but let's hope it's not too late. Posted by: CNN business anchor, Richard Quest |
CNN International's business anchors and correspondents get to grips with the issues affecting world business, and they want your questions and feedback. For Biz Clinic, CNN's expert advice segment for today's uncertain financial times, tune in Mondays. Recent Posts
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